2010 Five questions: Baltimore Orioles
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-chicago-cubs3/
Do they still play the blues in Chicago
When baseball season rolls around
When the snow melts away,
Do the Cubbies still play
In their ivy-covered burial ground
—"A Dying Cubs Fan's Last Request," Steve Goodman recording, 1983
當球季開始時...他們仍舊在芝加哥演奏著藍調嗎 ?
當冰雪融化時...小熊們仍舊在他們被常春藤覆蓋著的球場上嗎 ?
"一個將死的小熊迷最後的要求" Steve Goodman, 1983
Steve Goodman, a Chicago songwriter, performer and Cubs fan, died of leukemia
a year later. Being only 36 years old, he never had seen the Cubs in the
World Series. Had he lived to collect Social Security at 62, he still
wouldn't have.
Steve Goodman, 一個芝加哥的作曲家, 演奏家以及小熊迷. 在一年後因為白血病過世.
在他36歲的生命裡, 他從來沒能看到小熊打進世界大賽.而即使他活到62歲，他還是沒
機會看到。
Again this season, the snow will melt, the ivy will grow and the Cubbies will
play. Will their fans more often sing the blues, or another of Goodman's
compositions, "Go, Cubs, Go," as is their ritual after a home victory? Those
are the questions, along with these:
再一次的.這個球季. 冰雪仍舊會溶化. 常春藤仍舊會生長. 小熊們仍舊會繼續打球. 他
們的球迷會繼續唱著藍調(表現憂鬱)或是另一首 Steve Goodman 的曲子,當小熊勝利時唱
的 "Go Cubs Go"呢 ? 這要看下面的五個問題怎麼解決.
Will Sori still be sorry?
索爺會繼續唱sorry sorry 嗎 ?
Lured by the promise of a major league baseball game, nearly 40,000 people
turned out at Wrigley Field last May 5 to see the Cubs play the Giants. This
is the starting lineup the Cubs put on the field:
被大聯盟球賽所誘惑的將近40000名球迷們再去年五月五號進入 Wrigley Field 觀賞小熊
對抗巨人的比賽. 以下是先發名單.
Joey Gathright CF
Aaron Miles SS
Kosuke Fukudome RF
Derrek Lee 1B
Micah Hoffpauir LF
Mike Fontenot 2B
Bobby Scales 2B
Koyie Hill C
Sean Marshall P
You think the 16-seeds in the NCAA basketball tournament are automatic outs?
Take a look at that batting order. Big surprise: The Cubs lost. Two runs,
five hits, 10 strikeouts.
The Cubs, traditionally built to bop in their supposedly hitter-friendly
ballpark, were awful at the plate last year. Too many at-bats went to the
too-many Mario Mendoza-types on the team.
你會覺得NCAA 聯賽的第16種子會直接被淘汰嗎 ? 先來看看這分打擊順序。令人驚訝的。
小熊輸了。五安打，得兩分，吃了10 K. 小熊在對打者有利的球場，去年在打擊區的表現
糟透了。球隊裡太多的打席表現得像 Mario Mendoza(低於Avg)。
Alfonso Soriano was hurt and didn't hit. Geovany Soto was fat and didn't hit.
Milton Bradley was pouting and didn't hit. Fukudome was helpless against
left-handers. Fontenot was helpless against everybody. Aramis Ramirez was
hurt early in the season. Lee was awful early in the season. And those were
the good hitters.
When it was all over, the team that had scored 855 runs in winning the
National League Central in 2008 had scored 707. I'll do the math: That's
nearly one run fewer per game.
索爺受傷了打不好，SOTO太胖了打不好，愛俏嘴巴的 Bradley 打不好，福留孝介對左投
一籌莫展，Fontenot 對每個人都一籌莫展，拉米在季初受了傷，阿李在季初打得爛透了
，而這些都是球隊中的好打者。
當一切結束後，在2008年打了855分進帳的國聯中區冠軍在去年只打了707分進來。讓我算
個數學: 那表示幾乎每一場少了一分。
If there was one key to this general breakdown, it was Soriano, the Cubs' $18
million-a-year man they're stuck with through 2014, when he'll be 38. He
looked like a very old 33 last season, when he played in just 117 games, hit
.241/.303/.423 and played deplorable defense in left field. The year before,
he'd gotten into just 109 games.
如果要說這裡面有甚麼重要的關鍵，那會是索爺，小熊隊年薪1800萬，合約走到2014年的
人，那時他已經38歲了。而他在去年看起來像個老化的33歲球員。
當他只出賽了117場，卻只有 .241/.303/.423 這鳥成績並提供了左外野糟透了的防守。
而前一年，他只出賽了109場。
There were brief flashes of the old Sori last season. He got hot in July, and
the Cubs had an 18-9 month, by far their best. The rest of the year, he was a
.219 hitter, and the Cubs looked every bit of the weak-hitting, 83-win team
they were.
Soriano's 40-plus steals days are long gone (he didn't break into double
digits in 2009). Though he's a right-handed hitter, he's a liability against
lefties these days. (His lifetime .863 OPS against left-handed pitching fell
to .569 last season.)
上個球季索爺是有短暫的迴光返照過，他有火熱的七月，而小熊在那個月分贏了18場輸了
9場，目前為止他們最好的一次。剩下的場次，他只是個.219的打者，而小熊指望著每一
個微弱的打擊，讓他們贏了83場。
索爺的每年40+盜壘已經是很久以前的事了，(2009年根本沒超過兩位數)。儘管是個右打
者，在以前日子裡他是個可靠的對付左投的打者。(生涯對左投的OPS從.863 降到去年的
.569)。
He often looks terrible no matter which hand the pitcher uses. A recent
SI.com column by Tom Verducci showed that Ryan Howard sees breaking balls on
39.7 percent of the pitches he sees, the most in the majors. Next: Soriano,
at 39.6. That pretty much explains why Soriano strikes out more than one time
in every five plate appearances. Anyone who's seen Soriano going after a low
outside slider the past couple of years is put in mind of a golfer trying to
rescue his Titleist from a pond by flailing with a nine-iron. It's neither
pretty nor effective.
他現在不管是對付哪一隻手投球的投手看起來都很糟。一個近期Tom Verducci的 SI.com
專欄寫出 Ryan Howard 會看到39.7% 的變化球，聯盟最多的。下一個: 索爺 39.6%。
(引用Z大的翻譯法做個修改..^^\)
這大部分的解釋了為甚麼在每五個打席就會被三振一次以上。每一個在過去幾年看過索爺
打外角低滑球的人都會記得那像是個高爾夫打者試著去避免把球打進水池而亂揮球竿的動
作。那既不優雅也不有效。
So, is there any chance that Soriano can be the key to the Cubs offense again?
It won't be from the leadoff spot he held—amid considerable debate—until
midway through last season. Manager Lou Piniella says he'll bat him sixth,
putting a positive spin on it by calling sixth a good RBI spot. Generally,
though, that's not where a manager puts his best or second-best or third-best
hitter.
The hope is that a new hitting coach can make the difference in the offense,
in Soriano particularly. The Cubs' struggles last year cost two hitting
coaches their jobs. Now they've hired Rudy Jaramillo, who built a reputation
for success while doing that job for 15 years for the Texas Rangers. Can that
help? Well, the two seasons Soriano worked with Jaramillo at Texas were good
ones for him—but not as good as the two preceding (with the Yankees) or the
two following (with Washington and the Cubs).
所以，索爺仍然有任何的機會會是小熊的攻擊關鍵嗎?
經過上個賽季仔細的考量過，索爺不會再被擺到第一棒。老皮說我要把他擺在第六棒，讓
他可以提供打點。通常來說，一個不是擺最好，也不是次好，更不是第三好的打者的位置
。
唯一的希望放在新來的打擊教練上，希望他能改變些甚麼。尤其是索爺。小熊上一季的慘
狀消耗掉了他們兩名投手教練。這次他們雇來了 Rudy Jaramillo，一個在遊騎兵做了15
年並在那建立起自己的聲望的人。 那會有幫助嗎? Well, 當索爺在遊騎兵時的那兩年表現
得不錯， 但仍不及在洋基的那兩年以及之後在國民及小熊的兩年。
Does 25 minus one equal more wins?
Sabermatricians don't look kindly on old-school general managers like Jim
Hendry, who likes scouts better than numbers. But last year's big
acquisition, which looked good on the on-base percentage charts, was a
disaster. Bradley, who wore out his welcome in seven cities in one decade—
surely a major league record—outdid himself in Chicago. He was persona non
Wrigley pretty much from Opening Day, by some reports as much so with his
teammates as with the fans.
Fairly or not, the Cubs' sour season got pinned heavily on Bradley's sour
personality. The fact that he had his worst season (OPS+ 99) since 2002
didn't help, either. He was supposed to be the last piece needed to take the
Cubs to serious World Series contention, but instead became the scapegoat for
the disappointing offense.
Now he's gone; the Cubs traded bad contracts with Seattle, picked up $6
million in the deal, and used the proceeds to pick up new parts.
Trying to reverse the bad karma Bradley left, the team is offering a last
major league lifeline to 38-year-old Kevin Millar, not for his .231-.233
batting averages of the past two seasons, but because he's supposed to have a
nice personality.
Take that, number-crunchers!
25少1個球員會帶來更多的勝利嗎 ?
分析員並不看好經理Jim Hendry，一個重視球探過於數據的經理。而上個球季的大交易裡
，一個看似有不錯的上壘率的傢伙，卻是個大災難。
Bradley，一個在過去十年待過七個城市的傢伙，顯然是個聯盟紀錄，希望自己在芝加哥
有比過去好的表現。
而從開幕戰以後卻有許多的報告說他是個假惺惺的人，來自於球迷以及一些隊友。
不論公平與否，小熊的這個酸酸的賽季被Bradley 酸酸的個性釘住。事實上是他擁有一個
最糟糕的球季。(OPS+ 99)
他應該是小熊需要打進世界大賽的最後一塊拼圖。而不是一個令人失望的打線的代罪羔羊
。
現在他不見了。小熊換了個爛約加了點現金進來，並用來選些新人。
為了試圖去扭轉惡運，小熊丟出了DL並換來了快到球員生涯尾聲的 Kevin Millar，不是
因為他的.231-.233 打擊率，而是因為他的好個性。拿下他吧，沒錢花的小熊。
The pitching: half full or half empty?
Here's the optimistic take: Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and
Randy Wells make up a solid, proven top four in the rotation, and there are
at least four credible contenders for No. 5 and for stepping in during the
inevitable emergencies. Carlos Marmol, as feared a pitcher as there is, will
be the closer from Opening Day.
投手輪值: 半滿還是空一半 ?
以下是前四個先發: Lilly, 大Z, 蛋皮, 以及Randy Wells。他們組成了一個堅強，已證
明過的前四號輪值。另外還有至少四個有些實績的競爭者可以爭取第五號先發。馬毛，有
點令
人擔心的，將會從開幕戰開始做為球隊的closer。
Here are the "buts" from a guy who's seen a lot of optimism evaporate over a
lifetime of Cubs-watching:
而這裡是些"Buts"，來自一個看了很久的小熊的人所提出的觀點
* Lilly, the team's most consistent pitcher over three fine seasons in
Chicago, is out until at least late April. How often does a starting pitcher
come back before his "at least" date? And it's not reasonable to expect that
a 34-year-old pitcher will snap back to 145 ERA+ effectiveness right after
returning from surgery.
Lilly-球隊裡最穩定的投手，投了3個很不錯的球季，但會在四月底才回到輪值。我們會
有多常看到一個先發投手會在他的 least date 前回來 ? 另外，奢望一個34歲從手術後
回來的投手還能有145 ERA+ 的效率是有點不切實際的。
* It'll be another year of Carlos being Carlos, the maddeningly
inconsistent drama king.
大Z- 又是一年大Z之所以為大Z，那個令人發狂不穩定的劇場之王。
* Wells had a fine rookie season. What that means for 2010 is that Wells
had a fine rookie season. (See Soto, Geovany.)
Wells- 他有個不錯的菜鳥球季，也說明了他在2010是他的第一個完整的菜鳥球季(看看
Soto吧)
* Marmol (with apologies to Mitch Williams, call him "The Extremely Wild
Thing") is feared in equal parts for throwing very difficult pitches to hit
(11.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season) and for not knowing where
those pitches are going (7.9 BB/9 and 12 hit batters in 74 innings). Ouch!
馬毛- (先對Mitch Williams道個歉，說他是個"極度狂野的東西")他可以用力的丟出難打
的球，(K/9 = 11.3)，也可以用力的丟出不知道會去哪的球(BB/9 = 7.9)，Ouch!!!
* The depth isn't as deep as it looks. The Cubs let Rich Harden walk; he
was an injury waiting to happen, but when he was good, he was very, very
unhittable. Carlos Silva, the consolation prize in the Bradley deal, was bad
even when he was good, and that was several seasons ago. Tom Gorzelanny once
was the ace of the Pirates, but (insert your own tallest-midget-in-the-circus
simile here). Jeff Samardzija has yet to show why he chose baseball over the
NFL. Solid lefty Marshall seems a better fit for the bullpen than the
rotation: Last season, he lasted just five innings per start, with an earned
run average two runs higher than for his relief appearances. And promising
eighth-inning man Angel Guzman is out, perhaps forever, with a bum shoulder.
板凳深度- 並沒有他看起來的那麼深，小熊讓小蜜蜂走路了，一個有傷等待著回來的選手
，但當他沒有傷痛時，他是個非常，非常難被打擊出去的選手。Silva，DL交易中的安慰
獎，即使在他狀況好時也有點遜，而那已經是好幾個球季前的事了。Tom Gorzelanny曾是
海盜的 Ace，但是......(侏儒園裡最高的侏儒仍舊是侏儒)。
(譯按:感謝版友的推文指正)。
Jeff Samardzija 還沒有顯示出為什麼他選擇了MLB而不是NFL。
Marshall 似乎放在牛棚會比放在輪值裡好用。上個球季他每次先發都只投了五局，比他
上場救援時多了一到兩分的自責分。
而被允諾的第八局投手已經掰了，Guzman 或許將會永遠的與無用的手臂為伍吧。
It could all come together. But.
這些事或許通通可以解決。但是.......。
So, are they going to be any better this year?
所以，他們今年會比較好嗎 ?
Reports out of spring training say Soriano's got his old swing back and
Soto's got his old shape back. If just one of those things is true, it'll
make a big difference. But—and here's the skepticism born of experience again
—you may know that they're not the first two players in major league history
to inspire preseason optimism. Sun in March will do that.
來自春訓的報告說索爺找回了他以前的揮棒，Soto找回了他以前的身材。只要有一項是真
的就可以對球隊帶來很大的不同。但是- 以往的經驗產生的懷疑再次展現，你或許已經知
道了，他們不是第一對球員在春訓時狀況不錯。那是三月的太陽造成的。
The Cubs have a couple of other things going for them. Bad as they looked
last year, it was their third consecutive winning season. For the Red Sox,
say, that wouldn't be a big deal. It's the first time it's happened to the
Cubs since 1970-72. Time was when a .500 Cubs team was considered a success,
not a failure. With 81 wins as a floor, they'd be near the top of the weak NL
Central. Only the St. Louis Cardinals look clearly better.
小熊仍有幾件事情需要做到。像是去年那個糟糕的球季，他原本應該是小熊第三個連勝的
球季。相較紅襪而言，那不是件大事。但是那是小熊第一次有機會繼 70-72年以來的三連
勝，一個當小熊有五成勝率就會被當作成功的時代。對於至少有81勝且相對較弱的國聯中
區，只有紅雀看起來顯著的好一點。
And while their offseason improvements were modest—principally
thirty-something journeyman outfielders Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady—those
guys and a little better luck with injuries will keep them from giving 700
at-bats to the likes of Gathright, Miles, Scales, Hill, Andres Blanco and
Ryan Freel (composite batting average .223).
而雖然他們在季後的補強沒有很大-主要是補進了 Marlon Byrd 和 Xavier Nady- 這些人
如果有些許的好運與避免受傷可以提供700個打席，像是Gathright, Miles, Scales,
Hill, Andres Blanco 與 Ryan Freel (合起來的 average .223)
What about the new owners?
新老闆如何呢 ?
After three decades as corporate afterthoughts, the Cubs have owners who
actually wanted a baseball team. Like the Wrigleys, the Ricketts family made
its fortune elsewhere (trading in stocks rather than chewing gum). The
Tribune Company bought a media company that owned a baseball team; Sam Zell
was a real estate magnate who bought a piece of property to flip.
在過了30年企業化的經營後，小熊終於有個真正想要一個球隊的老闆。像是箭牌口香糖，
Rickeet 家族讓他的錢灑在別的地方(交易股票甚於嚼口香糖)。
Tribune 公司買下了一個擁有棒球隊的媒體公司，Sam Zell 是個超有錢的人，買下了這
個企業。
Tom Ricketts, the face of the new ownership, says the right things about
wanting a winner and has shown no signs of wanting to cut the budget of a
popular team that's a success in every way except the year-end standings. But
there doesn't appear to be much he can do to turn the Cubs into an instant
powerhouse. They already have one of the majors' largest payrolls (some $140
million). Problem is, $102 million of that is tied up in just seven players.
All but one of those (Zambrano) is over 30; none seem primed for a startling
breakthough.
Tom Ricketts. 這個新老闆說:對於這個受歡迎且在許多方面都很成功除了年底的排名以
外的球隊，要勝利須要做些對的事情而且並沒有要砍預算的樣子。
但是並沒有明顯的可以讓小熊立馬變成一個充滿power 的球隊。他們已經是個有著龐大薪
資的球隊(140 M)，而問題在有 102 M被七個球員綁住。
就是那票除了大Z以外年過30的球員。沒有一個看起來能提供驚人的突破。
So the Cubs' key current players are about as good as they're going to get.
They have the Soriano millstone. They have a decision to make on Lee, whose
contract is up after this year: He's popular, he's good, he's 34. And if the
bright light of new talent is peeking over the horizon, you can't see it from
here. There's excitement this spring about young shortstop Starlin Castro,
but he's 19, has exactly 31 games past the Single-A level, and stands out in
part for lack of competition: He's the only Cubs prospect on Matt Hagen's top
100 list on THT this month.
所以小熊目前的關鍵球員是那些他們將要拿到的。他們有難以丟掉的索爺。他們需要對阿
李作出些決定，一個今年底就走完合約的人。阿李很受歡迎，阿李很棒，阿李34歲了。
而如果曙光從地平線悄悄的出現，他們不會是上面的那些人。今年春訓有個讓人驚豔的人
，Starlin Castro。但是他只有19歲，只在1A有過31場完整的比賽，在缺乏競爭的地方
勉強有一席之地。他是小熊這個月唯一一個出現在Matt Hagen's top 100 list on THT的
人。
Will the Cubs deal big-time if they're in contention at midseason, as the
Cardinals did with Matt Holliday in 2009? You have to think there's a better
chance than there has been in recent years, when ownership was in limbo.
The 102-year history of missing the big prize aside, the once-woeful Cubs
have become a serious player in the major leagues. They're a valuable
franchise in a major market. With enlightened ownership, there's every reason
to think they'll be a success on the field.
One of these days.
小熊會在季中有重大交易嗎 ? 就像是紅雀在去年季中交易來Matt Holliday 一樣。你必
須假設會比過去幾年多了些機會，因為老闆換人了。
這個有102年與冠軍失之交臂的歷史，曾經有著很爛的成績的小熊已經變成了大聯盟裡的
強隊。
在大聯盟裡他是個寶貴的資產，而隨著明朗化的經營權，每個理由都讓我們相信他們會在
球場上成功。在許多日子的某一天裡。
Joe Distelheim is a copy editor for The Hardball Times website. He welcomes
comments and suggestions via e-mail.
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第一次翻譯外電...有錯請板有多多指正^^\