Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays
by R.J. Anderson March 16, 2010
原文網址 http://0rz.tw/Z8mo3
What wacky lineups will Joe Maddon produce?
究竟~Maddon會排出怎樣奇形怪狀的打線?
As of this writing, the projected 25-man roster features Ben Zobrist, B.J.
Upton, Sean Rodriguez and Willy Aybar. With the exception of Aybar, the quartet
shares a common positional genesis at shortstop, so it should be no surprise
that versatility is in high supply.
在可能的25人名單內，Ben Zobrist, B.J.Upton, Sean Rodiguez, Willy Aybar都是擁有多
重守備位置的球員，除了Aybar以外，其他人也都有守SS的經驗，所以不用驚訝的是，在各
個位置上都有很多人可以選擇。
Zobrist has 130 major league appearances at shortstop, 99 at second base and 89
in the outfield (he actually appeared at every position except catcher and
pitcher last season). Upton has more than 350 starts in center field, but also
63 appearances at third base, 48 at second and 16 at short. When Jason Bartlett
suffered an injury last season, Upton actually took grounders at shortstop just
in case. Aybar is being restricted to third and first base this season, but has
taken reps at short and second for the Rays and Rodriguez is essentially the
new Zobrist.
Zobrist在大聯盟有130場守SS、99場守2B、89場守OF(事實上除了P跟C以外，去年他每個位
置都守過了)的經驗。
Upton雖然大多都擔任CF(350場)，但也有守過3B(63場)、2B(48場)、SS(16場)，去年Jason
Bartlett受傷時，Upton也有進行SS的練習。
Aybar雖然本季被定位成CI，但也有在進行MI的練習。
Sean-Rod則被認為是另一個Zobrist(內外兼修)
Having four players with the capability to play, well, everywhere provides a
ridiculous amount of flexibility for Maddon. Factor in that the Rays have a
number of platoon-heavy hitters and things are going to be in constant flux. If
Hank Blalock somehow makes the roster, there’s a chance the Rays could produce
this lineup versus righties (career wOBA versus righties):
球隊其他球員本身也具有強大的攻擊火力，如果Hank Blalock也在名單內，光芒就能排出專
門面對右投的打線。
C Dioner Navarro (.334)
1B Carlos Pena (.382)
2B Ben Zobrist (.335)
3B Evan Longoria (.377)
SS Jason Bartlett (.310)
LF Carl Crawford (.345)
CF B.J. Upton (.332)
RF Matt Joyce (.357; small sample size)
DH Hank Blalock (.362)
And then this one to face southpaws (career wOBA versus lefties):
以及專門面對左投的打線。
C Kelly Shoppach (.419)
1B Carlos Pena (.333)
2B Sean Rodriguez (.289; small sample size)
3B Evan Longoria (.364)
SS Jason Bartlett (.372)
LF Carl Crawford (.307)
CF B.J. Upton (.343)
RF Ben Zobrist (.366)
DH Pat Burrell (.389)
Gabe Kapler and his .363 wOBA versus lefties into account. That’s also
assuming the southpaw hitting Reid Brignac isn’t around and, well, you get the
point. This club is deeper and more complex than a painting by M.C. Escher.
Maddon is no stranger to mixing and matching either. During his four years with
the Rays, he’s used 125, 100, 100 and 93 different lineups.
姑且不論Gabe Kaple面對左投也有.363 wOBA(註1)的表現，而且這也是在沒有考慮到左打者
Brignac的情況下，你會發現這隻球隊比M.C. Escher的畫作還要複雜。
Maddon也是個排列組合的行家，在擔任光芒總教練的4年裡，他分別排出了123,100,100,93
種打線。
How many innings for Rafael Soriano?
Soriano能投多少局數?
Team owner Stuart Sternberg and the acquisition of Soriano have produced some
quality quotations. Before the offseason began, Sternberg said something to the
ilk of, "There aren’t any $7 million closers coming here." To which Andrew
Friedman, who runs the baseball operations, said, "Hey, about that." Now the
Rays did not pursue or acquire Soriano because he’s a closer, but more because
he’s a good pitcher. Nevertheless, Sternberg said the Rays intend to have a
little fun with their shiny bullpen toy, which raises the question: How thin is
the line between an efficient workload and abusing the arm? Fingernail thin
when that arm is under contract for only one season and that one season is the
most important in team history.
對於有點殘破不全的牛棚，追求高效用的工作量以及對手臂的傷害只有一線之隔，尤其這條
手臂只有一年合約，而且球隊正處於極為重要的一個球季。
The 30-year-old Soriano posted a career high in appearances and innings last
season, which suggests that the Braves' Frank Wren and Bobby Cox intended to
stretch the boundaries as well. Throughout Soriano’s career, he’s been death
to righties (.520 OPS against) and an irritating annoyance to lefties (.707
OPS), which means calling upon him to face batters of either hand is no issue.
30歲的Soriano在去年的出場次與投球局數都創下生涯新高，他生涯面對不論左右打的
問題都不大。
Soriano figures to rack up something like 30-35 saves in 2010. Of those with at
least 30 saves in 2009, only Jonathan Broxton and Fernando Rodney pitched at
least twice as many innings as they had saves. Brian Fuentes was the low man,
with 1.1 innings per save, and the average of the group was 1.7. Expect Soriano
’s innings per save ratio to be higher than Troy Percival’s in 2008 (1.6) but
lower than J.P. Howell’s in 2009 (3.9).
Soriano被預期2010年能拿下30-35次SV，而2009年拿下30次SV以上的RP只有Jonathan
Broxton 跟 Fernando Rodney投超過SV次數兩倍以上的局數，最低的是Brian Fuentes
平均1.1局拿下一次SV，而平均值則是1.7。
預計Soriano每拿下一次SV大約要投1.6~3.9局。
arm injuries and one caused him to miss most of 2008. Under Maddon’s watch the
Rays have never had a reliever top 90 innings (Howell came awfully close in
2008 though, literally outs away). How Maddon balances Soriano’s duties as the
Rays’ harbinger of finality will be something to watch for, if only to see
what the Rays’ definition of fun is.
對光芒而言，Soriano的肩膀傷痛史是個值得觀察的地方，在Maddon的帶領下，光芒還沒有
一位投超過90局的RP(最接近的是2008年的Howell投了89.1局)。
Maddon會怎麼使用這位新的CL值得關注。
Will the Rays trade Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena?
是否會交易 Carl Crawford 或 Carlos Pena?
The last time the Rays dealt with relevant players nearing the end of their
contracts, they chose against the draft picks and took the security of choosing
the prospects. Such efforts netted them a mixed bag of results.
In 2006, they dealt relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter to the Dodgers for
starting prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany. (Jackson was later traded
for Matt Joyce.) A few months later they finished the job, moving first baseman
Aubrey Huff and cash to Houston for (then) shortstop Zobrist and starter Mitch
Talbot. (Talbot was recently traded for Shoppach.)
光芒在合約屆滿前交易有價值的球員多用以交換選秀權，或是形成包裹式的交易，2006年他
們用Danys Baez +Lance Carter向道奇交易來Edwin Jackson(後來被拿來交易Matt Joyce)
+ Chuck Tiffany幾個月後，又用Aubrey Huff + 現金換來Zobrist + Mitch Talbot
(最近被拿來交易Shoppach)
Friedman also spun two deals with the Dodgers. First, he shipped starter/giant
Mark Hendrickson, catcher Toby Hall and cash for starter/arsonist Jae-Weong
Seo, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Justin Ruggiano. Then, as the trade
deadline came into view, he dealt shortstop Julio Lugo for outfielder Sergio
Pedroza and infielder Joel Guzman.
捕手Navarro等人也是透過此類交易而來的
Throughout the years, the Rays have demonstrated a high level of success in
player scouting, whether it be domestic or international, prospect or amateur.
The clash between team preference (seemingly taking the controlled variable,
i.e. the prospects, rather than rolling the dice) and the reality of their
contender status is compelling, if not ultimately won by the chance at a
championship. The problem is that the Rays must rely not upon their scouts'
eyes and notes, but first upon Elias’ algorithm to correctly identify Crawford
and Pena as being worthy of Type-A status. Neither, surprisingly, is a lock.
Evidently being the best defensive left fielder in baseball for many years
running just isn’t worth as much to the Elias’ system as it should be.
這些年來，光芒在挖掘球員上取得重大的成功。
但Crawford 和 Pena是否能被判定為A咖，仍要交給Elias(註2)評比
近年來防守最好的LF的評比結果是否和事實相符，仍有疑問。
The flip side to the Type-A status dilemma is that Pena very well could accept
arbitration if offered. He loves the area and the team. Plus, with a first base
market that includes Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, and oh yeah, Albert Pujols, the
chance of Pena breaking the bank in free agency seems less certain than before.
Agent Scott Boras’ tumultuous offseason with Johnny Damon could certainly fuel
the flame of Pena sticking with the Rays.
若是Pena被證明是個A咖，將使他陷入薪資仲裁的兩難，因為他熱愛這隻球隊，加上之後
FA將有Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, Albert Pujols等大咖1B，Pena勢必討不到太大的便宜
，經紀人Boras的功力也有助於Pena繼續留下。
That’s not to say the Rays haven’t been stocking up on first basemen like
suntan lotion this offseason. The 2008 cult hero Dan Johnson and former
prospect Ryan Shealy are in the system, as is the aforementioned Blalock. There
’s also Matthew Sweeney, a poor-fielding third baseman with offensive
potential whom they acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade. And the Rays signed
Cuban outfielder/first baseman Leslie Anderson to a contract worth nearly $4
million.
但不代表光芒沒有對此作準備， Dan Johnson、Ryan Shealy、Blalock、在Kazmir交易案中
得來的Matthew Sweeney、古巴籍的Leslie Anderson都是可能的備案。
The most comforting news for fans of the team who share a passion for amateur
talent is that the club will hold six of the top 90 selections this June,
including compensatory picks for failure to sign their first- and second-round
selections in 2009 and a supplementary selection for the loss of Gregg Zaun. So
whether Crawford and Pena stay or leave via trade or free agency, the Rays will
be making a ton of early selections over the next two Junes which, along with
the rise of arms like Matthew Moore and Alexander Colome, should keep the Rays’
farm system amongst the best in baseball, even with the graduation of guys
like …
不過最令光芒球迷感到欣慰的是，光芒在今年六月依然擁有不錯的選秀順位，包含2009年第
一與第二輪選擇失敗的補償，以及失去選擇Gregg Zaun而追加的選秀權。不論Crawford或
Pena留下或離開，光芒在未來兩次的選秀中仍然大有可為，讓其繼續保持擁有全聯盟最佳的
農場。
Will Desmond Jennings see the majors this year?
Desmond Jennings今年會上到大聯盟嗎?
The short answer: Probably not until September.
簡短的答案是：恐怕到9月擴編前都不會。
The long answer: Jennings is the undisputed top prospect for the Rays. He’s a
23-year-old center fielder who bats right-handed, throws right-handed, and
possesses five tools. Last year, Jennings played in 132 minor league games
across Double- and Triple-A and combined for a batting line of .318/.401/.488
with 11 homers, 31 doubles and 52 steals in 577 plate appearances.
長一點的答案是：Jennings無庸置疑是光芒的頂級新秀，這位右投右打的23歲CF，五項能力
兼俱，去年在小聯盟2A + 3A出賽共132場，577個打席中繳出11 HR、31 2B、52 SB ，打擊
三圍是.318/.401/.488。
Many will tell you that Jennings is the typical Rays prospect. That’s a quick
way to say the player is hyper-athletic with huge upside and likely has dark
skin. Jennings is all of that. Some would say he’s a walk-conscious version of
Carl Crawford, or a hybrid of B.J. Upton and Crawford. The Rays chose Jennings
out of an Alabama Juco in the 10th round of the 2006 draft, the same draft that
produced Longoria.
Jennings是光芒典型的選秀類型，擁有強大的運動能力以及黑色皮膚，有人將他比喻成
B.J. Upton + Crawford的綜合體，2006年被光芒在第10輪選走，與Longoria同屆。
The problem—and literally, it might be the only problem—with Jennings has
been health. He missed most of 2008 with a strained back and his spring
training experience ended prematurely with a sprained wrist. The other problem,
and this isn’t so much with Jennings or so much a problem, is that the Rays
have incredible outfield depth in the majors already. Crawford, Upton, Kapler
and Joyce form a solid foursome, with Zobrist and Rodriguez being able to take
reps there as well. There’s also future poet laureate Fernando Perez and Jaime
Cevallos’ newest patient Ruggiano roaming around Durham, just itching for a
crack at St. Petersburg.
問題是他必須保持健康，背傷使他錯過了2008年大部分的比賽，而他的春訓也因為扭傷而
提前結束。
另外一個問題，相較之下問題不大，就是光芒的外野呈現爆炸狀態，同時面對其他新秀的競
爭。
Will James Shields ever be appreciated?
James Shields是否能投出應有的水準?
Minus the 2008 playoffs and the now infamous "Big Game" nickname controversy,
Shields has avoided the spotlight like his favorite meal is blood. Yet, over
the last three seasons, Shields has a lower xFIP than John Lackey, Chad
Billingsley, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, Andy
Pettitte, Gil Meche, Scott Kazmir, Scott Baker, Mark Buehrle and John Danks. He
’s thrown more innings than everyone in baseball except CC Sabathia, Roy
Halladay and Dan Haren over that period as well.
姑且不論2008年的季後賽以及最近一些五四三的爭論，過去三個球季裡，Shields的xFIP比
多位各隊1、2號SP的要來的低，這段時間內他的投球局數也僅次於CC、Doc、Haren。
So, why doesn’t the guy get more love? It’s hard to say. Nothing about Shields
’ approach is spectacular. His velocity doesn’t win him radar gun groupies,
his change-up is fantastic but he’s taken to using it less and less as the
opposing hitters expect it more and more, and his mellow persona doesn’t allow
for much in the way of imagination. He’s just James Shields. He’s just the
guy who never reached top prospect status and appeared in 2006 under the name
of Jamie. He’s just the guy who took the win in Tampa Bay’s first playoff
game and lays claim to the only positive World Series decision in franchise
history.
到底為什麼Shields這麼沒有愛?其實不太好解釋。
他並沒有過於突出的表現，球速沒有受到注目、威力強大的變速球卻很少使用、圓滑的個性
使他並不容易讓人留下深刻印象。
儘管他贏得了隊史第一場季後賽勝利。
He’s just James Shields, the old chew toy on a staff of young guns. He’s just
James Shields, and that means he’s just on the wrong end of some bad luck. He’
s never won 15 games in a single season (which would be a Rays record) despite
being just fantastic throughout most of his career. His run support per game
started has dwindled (from 3.8 to 3.7 to 3.3) despite the Rays’ offense
setting a franchise record for runs per game in 2009.
這就是他，只是運氣不好了點，他從沒單季拿下過15勝(如果有的話將是隊史紀錄)，儘管他
表現的很不錯，他得到的火力支援越來越少，從平均每場3.8→3.7→3.3分，雖然光芒隊在
2009年平均單場得分的火力驚人。
He’s the dude with the chin hair who wears number 33 and warms to the violent
sounds of Du Hast. He’s the dude who hasn’t missed a start due to fatigue or
injury since 2006, and missed a start in 2008 only because he tried being James
Braddock. He’s one of only two long-term investments on the Rays, alongside
that Longoria guy, and he’s under contract through 2014 for an average salary
of roughly $7 million despite the Rays buying out a pair of free agency years.
Consider this: Shields won’t make more than $8 million in a single season
until 2013. Former teammate Edwin Jackson will make nearly $8.5 million next
season. Here’s the kicker. Jackson’s career best season (as judged by xFIP)
would be Shields’ worst.
他自從2006年後就沒有因傷缺陣過，他也是目前光芒唯二的長期投資(另一位是Longoria)，
到2014年，他的平均年薪接近7M。
到2013年之前，他單季薪資不會超過8M，而前隊友Edwin Jackson明年就會得到將近8.5M，
但Jackson表現最好的那年，與Shields最差的表現差不多。
Shields is probably going to pitch pretty well in 2010. He’ll probably do it
without much fanfare or attention either, which is fine, that’s just who he
is.
Shields今年應該還是會投得不錯，他仍然不太可能成為目光的焦點，但這就是他，
只是做好他份內的工作。
註1.Weighted On Base Average http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml
註2.The Elias Sports Bureau http://www.esb.com/