Five questions: New York Mets
by Jonathan Halket
April 02, 2010
Some questions are questions, others are really answers. The Mets enter the
2010 season with question marks hovering ominously over virtually every
player. There remains much that is unsure or even unknown about this team.
But the number and nature of so many of the questions should help us answer
two questions about the team's prospects and management's prospects.
大都會有些問題今年還是問題，有些則會找到答案。某些球員的情況還是差不多，所以
有些問題的前景還是不太樂觀，還是有很多不確定甚至不明的問題圍繞著這支球隊，但
總有些問題的數據本質有助於解答兩個問題──這支球隊跟管理階層的前景。
How healthy is Jose Reyes? Will Jason Bay be a huge liability in left field?
What about Jeff Francoeur at the plate? Can the new, veteran catchers, Rod
Barajas and Henry Blanco, really help the pitching staff? How much will Luis
Castillo regress from last season? Will the bullpen be any good? Will David
Wright's power return? These are some of the questions that I don't ask—I
have only five. However, I might sneakily answer some of them as I deal with
some of the others.
Reyes還是健康寶寶嗎？Bay會擔起鎮守左外野跟大棒子的責任嗎？粉酷的選球呢 (這句
不太確定)？Barajas跟Blanco這兩個新的老捕手對於輪值有幫助嗎？Castillo會回春嗎
？牛棚今年的表現如何？Wright可以找回他的砲瓦嗎？這一篇為什麼只給我五個問題呢
.........看來我只能回答一些啦！旁敲側擊看看其他的會不會得到解答吧！
1. Whither Carlos Beltran?
Beltran的狀況怎樣？
When the Mets signed Beltran in 2005, they were buying the services of a
complete player. When healthy, he's been probably the best center fielder in
the game the past several years. After undergoing some sort of knee surgery
(at one point rumored to be microfracture surgery, but seemingly merely
arthroscopic in nature) this past season, there are naturally some questions
about how much speed he'll still have. Always an extremely savvy
base-stealer, he'd seen some decline in stolen base attempts in recent years
as his knee pain worsened.
05年簽下 Beltran之後，只要健康，大都會就是買到一個幾乎完美的頂級CF，但是動了
膝蓋手術後，想當然爾對他的速度就會有所質疑，Beltran 是一個很懂得抓盜壘時機的
球員，但是膝蓋的情況會逐年下滑，嘗試盜壘的次數也會。
However, the bigger reason to wonder about his speed is because of the runs
he saves in the field. As spacious as Citi Field's outfield is and with Bay
and Francoeur totemically manning left and right field, Beltran's leatherwork
is invaluable. A lost step in either direction could see many more doubles
for opposing hitters.
盜壘的問題還好，最大的問題還是在防守，Citi Field的外野這麼大，相較於 Beltran
的神威，左右外野的粉酷跟 Bay就只是收集公仔一般，如果失去了對飛球第一步的判斷
，那對手就會出現更多長打了。
Angel Pagan should see the lion's share of playing time in center until
Beltran returns (at the earliest in mid-May). With a UZR of 5.8 and a batting
average of .306 last season, Pagan won't be a precipitous drop-off for the
Mets on the field or getting on base (though Beltran is much better at
drawing walks). Of course, if for some terrible reason the Mets choose to
play Gary Matthews Jr., then there will be calamity in center.
在Beltran最快要到五月中才能歸隊之前，Pagan會吃掉最多CF的場次，去年他有.306的
打擊率跟UZR 5.8的成績，即使Beltran比較會選BB，Pagan 還是不該被大都會免洗，當
然啦！如果不得已在先發CF會常常看到GMJ*的話，恐怕就是慘劇一場了。
The Mets won't be able to replace Beltran's power from the center field spot,
though. There has been some chatter in the ether forecasting a fall in
Beltran's power. Even THT's own projection, Oliver, barely has him breaking
20 home runs in any season for the rest of his career. I am not so dour; I
still see him staying above 25 home runs (based on a full season's number of
plate appearances). The dramatic fall in his HR/FB rate in 2009 to 10.8
percent echoes the fall in 2005 from which he rebounded nicely to his more
usual career levels. Even the slightest fall in power will be keenly felt,
though, because of the lack of power at other spots on the field.
大都會期他CF都不可能擁有Beltran這種砲瓦，然而還是有些預測覺得Beltran的砲管在
縮小當中，在THT自己的預測裡都覺得Beltran在生涯後段可能少有超過20轟的球季了，
我覺得還好啦！我覺得可以健康打完的話他每年還是可以有25轟以上，09年 HR/FB誇張
的 10.8%是05年的慘狀以後首見，在砲瓦這一環是牽一髮而動全身的，大都會其他位置
缺乏的砲瓦會讓Beltran砲管任何縮減都會被注意。
2. Does it really matter who's on first?
誰在一壘差多少？
The biggest power difference between the Mets and the rest of the league will
come at first base. As any fantasy player knows, first base is stuffed with
power throughout the league. While the Mets had Carlos Delgado in the lineup,
the team was no different. No longer—neither likely starter Daniel Murphy
nor potential backups Mike Jacobs, Chris Carter and Fernando Tatis—is going
to bring league average power (for a first baseman) to the plate. (Just in
case you were wondering, Jacobs had a slugging percentage of only .401 last
year, which is off the map for a first baseman.)
大都會跟其他球隊差最多的是1B，有玩FB的都懂啦！1B應該要是有砲瓦的大棒子，以前
Delgado 先發的時候是這樣啦！但是換成Murphy先發之後就差多了，即使是由Jacobs，
C.Carter或是Tatis當backup，狀況是一樣。(豆知識：Jacobs去年的長打率只有.401，
以一個1B的水準而言還差多了。)
The Mets' hopes rest instead on either Murphy becoming a sort of Keith
Hernandez-esque line drive machine or on minor leaguer Ike Davis stepping-in
and winning the role and fans' hearts. Murphy does show great contact
percentage, which makes up for his low walk rates, and he does hit a lot of
doubles. But his groundball rate, at 40 percent, is a little uncomfortably
high.
大都會希望Murphy或其他替補人選至少可以像 Keith Hernendez那樣很會打line drive
，或者像Ike Davis那樣即將成為戰力(至少要吸引球迷)，Murphy的確有不錯的contact
跟還滿多的二安，多少彌補了選到很少BB的缺點，但是多達 40%的滾地球比例還是不太
好看。
Meanwhile, Davis had a nice spring training before being sent back down to
the minors for more seasoning. However, he doesn't project to be a huge power
threat—the consensus seems to be an upside best of around 25 home runs in a
full season at peak age. Maybe, maybe he'll out-project and hit more one day,
but probably not, and almost certainly not this season.
在被送回minor等待成長之前，Davis今年春訓表現很好，但是他仍然不算很大隻的砲管
，一般預測即使在高峰時期他也就是個25轟左右的打者，當然他可能長的更好，但是機
率不大；就算是，也不會是現在。
All this means that if the middle of the order batters are on base, the
bottom of order is going to struggle driving them in. With three from among
Castillo, Murphy, Francoeur and Barajas/Blanco at the bottom of the batting
order, there won't be many repercussions from walking the fifth spot. And
that's when the full lineup is healthy. With Murphy now injured, the opening
day lineup could look like: Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Francoeur, Jacobs,
Cora and Barajas.
這代表即使中心打者上壘了，後段棒次也很難送他們回來。Castillo，Murphy，粉酷還
有捕手的後段棒次都可能會讓對手保送第五棒來抓他們，而這是全員健康的時候。因為
Murphy現在要蹲在DL，開季大都會的lineup將會是 Pagan-Castillo-Wright-Bay-粉酷-
Jacobs-Cora-Barajas。
3. Will the starting pitching drive Mets fans to the bottle?
SP們可以再讓球迷充滿希望嗎？
Johan Santana's coming back from elbow surgery but should be fine. Pray that
he is because the other starters can give ulcers. Everybody's wondering if
Mike Pelfrey is going to fulfill the potential that he kind of flashed in
2008. He's a riddle but he's now the team's No. 2.
山大王開刀動了手肘，但應該沒啥大礙，只能期待他因為其他SP恐怕都很慘。大家都覺
得 Pelfrey在08年的大驚奇已經是他的天花板了，他還是個謎樣的投手但他現在是大都
會的二號。
Behind him are John Maine and Oliver Perez, both youngish guys who've
actually pitched better seasons than Pelfrey. But right now, they're even
bigger enigmas.
接著是 Maine跟Perez，他們都還年輕而且都有投過比Pelfrey更好的球季，但現在一切
也都是問號。
Perez's Jekyll and Hyde routine is well known and he's shown no sign of
righting himself this spring. Maine is a more recent member of the asylum.
Last year, even when healthy, he was hugely inconsistent. In no start did he
go more than seven innings. Out of his 15 starts, he gave up at least five
runs five times, but also gave up fewer than two runs in seven starts. Both
on the mound and off, he rarely seems to be happy with the way he pitches.
OP丟銅板式的表現大家都知道，從今年的春訓看起來好像沒有改善。姜麵看起來更像要
好好調養，去年即使是健康的時候他都很不穩定，沒有一場投超過七局，15次先發裡有
五次失五分以上，也有七次掉不到兩分，不管是哪一種表現，他看起來對自己都很不滿
意。
All this means that Jonathon Niese, who just a week ago was still battling
for a spot on the major league roster, is now being fitted for the third spot
in the rotation (not that the order of the rotation is all that important).
Niese might actually be able to deliver on that spot, though he might also
struggle, much as Pelfrey did (and still does). Maine and, especially, Perez,
have the talent to be middle of the rotation pitchers. So, as an upside, the
team might have an above average rotation behind Santana. More likely,
though, is that team gets subpar contributions from at least one, probably
two or three and possibly all four pitchers.
種種跡象顯示不久前可能還在競爭MLB開季資格的Niese可能比較適合三號，實際順序不
是重點，但是比起Pelfrey，Maine跟更嚴重的Perez的問題，Niese還比較好一點。他們
的確是很有天分的投手，但是至少到目前為止，對於大都會的rotation，除了山大王之
外可能都不能有平均水準的貢獻，可能其中一兩個有問題，最慘的情況就是中後段輪值
龜鄒海料料。
4. "Should I buy my playoff tickets yet?"
"我現在可以買季後賽門票嗎？"
Um, no. If this were the NHL or NBA, where eight teams from each league get
into the postseason, then maybe.
免笑想，去做像是NHL或NBA那樣每個聯盟選八隊進入季後賽的白日夢比較快。
The management and even some members of the media would have us focus on what
MIGHT happen. Certainly, the Mets might make the playoffs; odder things have
happened. They have a quartet of players, who, if healthy, offer a more than
solid foundation to build a playoff or even championship team. Adding Bay
into that mix does not hurt.
管理階層或是某些媒體會讓我們做著那些"可能"的夢，像是大都會可能會打到十月之類
；健康情況下大都會的確有不錯的球員，有不錯的球隊主幹，加入了 Bay之後看起來也
的確像是大加分。
But the Mets aren't likely to make the playoffs. I can think of at least as
many scenarios that would have them finish below .500 as above it: Beltran
doesn't make it back as or when expected. Same for Reyes. Wright's power
doesn't return to normal. All would be mortal blows to the season. These are
just the things that went wrong last season that have to revert to normal; it
doesn't count the things that could go wrong this year that were normal last
year—like, say, if Francisco Rodriguez gets injured.
但其實大都會不太可能有季後賽，我覺得今年低於五成勝率的機會還比較高， Beltran
跟 Reyes都不太確定歸隊的日期，Wright的砲瓦好像也回不到從前，這些都可能砸了今
年。而且都還只是去年的問題而已喔！如果今年有新的問題還要再說，比如說 K-Rod如
果受傷的話.......
And that's just to make it above 81 wins. To get into the playoffs, the
Mets'll probably need 14-15 wins from at least one of their non-Santana
pitchers and at least 10-11 from still two more. They'll need one and more
likely two among Castillo, Francoeur and Murphy to be positive offensively.
And the rest of the bullpen will need to be helpful as well. Basic
probability tells us that it is very unlikely that enough of these come true
for the Mets to put champagne on ice.
這些問題都解決恐怕也只能達到五成勝率，如果要打進季後賽，可能要有山大王以外的
投手拿個14~15勝，然後再有兩個人拿個10~11勝，還要有個比Castillo，Murphy，粉酷
還要更有威脅的棒子，牛棚不要再來搞笑，種種跡象都顯示大都會跟要噴香檳還有一段
距離。
5. When will Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel get their first unemployment checks?
Minaya跟Manuel什麼時候會走人？
Of course, it'll all depend on the team's performance. But chances are they
are fired when it becomes clear that the team isn't playoff bound, and
deservedly so. Manuel seems to have no vision for the team, no theory on
baseball to be held and hold himself accountable to. He's a dabbler who
repeats his past mistakes and abandons experiments whimsically.
這跟球隊的表現有關，但一個他們可能被火的時機會出現在當大都會可能失去季後賽契
機的時候，而且當然啦我覺得他們不會有季後賽可打。Manuel看起來沒有對球隊的方針
，也沒什麼棒球理論會支持他。他就好像沾醬油的這裡試一下那裏試一下，但是每次都
異想天開的放棄那些可以從錯誤中學得的經驗，然後重蹈覆轍。
Minaya seems to have marginally more focus. Of course, the contracts he's
given to Castillo and Perez are disasters that have handcuffed the team. He's
shown himself capable of signing other, more productive talent as long as he
pays top dollar. His trade for Santana has worked out well.
Minaya會是更被放在放大鏡下檢視的角色，他簽給Castillo跟OP的合約都套牢了球隊，
他曾經在山大王的交易中證明了他可以表現的很好，在簽Castillo跟OP這種合約的時候
他應該有更好的選擇才是。
It is usual PR shtick to focus on possibilities, instead of probabilities
when talking with the media—like how Francoeur might maintain the production
he gave the team for half a season last year. The problem is that Minaya
might be drinking his own Kool-Aid; he buys into the upside too much. And his
little head-scratchers start to add up. Why did he trade for J.J. Putz
without giving him a physical? Why did he chase Heath Bell out of town? Why
sign Alex Cora to (effectively) a two-year, $2 million per year contract? Why
sign Cora, or any backup shortstop, that you're uncomfortable playing if
Reyes starts the season on the DL, especially when Reyes spent much of last
season on the DL? Why give up anything for Matthews?
很多的問題，那些小攤販賭機率就算了，Minaya連對媒體的發言也好像都在下注，比方
說你能期待粉酷表現得像去年後半他轉來以後那樣嗎？Minaya就好像喝茫了一樣每次都
對於極限情況下注，為什麼對Putz的體檢跟健康狀況搞成這樣？為什麼趕走Bell？為什
麼給Cora這種等級的替補SS 4M/2y？當 Reyes開季要待在DL，可以預期球隊開季不太順
的時候你卻只有Cora這種backup？GMJ*這一筆又是哪招？
(drinking his own Kool-Aid這裡不太會翻，請大家幫個忙....)
Minaya seems to value intangible, unquantifiable traits. The nice thing about
them from an executive's perspective is that it is hard to be held
accountable for misreading them. Perhaps there are some intangibles that are
genuinely valuable, but if so, Minaya's hoarding of them hasn't been
reflected in the team's performance (has any team been less "clutch" in the
past three or four years?).
Minaya很愛去衡量那些無形的，不太夠格上檯面的特點，說真的，就執行觀點來看，要
苛責他去對這些誤解負責有些困難，也許那些無形的東西真的有他的價值，但即使如此
，Minaya對這些的堅持也沒有反應在球隊的實際表現上。 (過去三四年，有哪支球隊比
大都會更會在關鍵時刻出槌呢？←這應該是說過去幾年季末崩盤的事)
If there were any justice for the fans, the owners—the Wilpons—would be
fired as well. I doubt that Minaya would've done better unfettered, but it is
pretty clear that Jeff Wilpon was not helpful either—tales of how he was
caught up in the Rasputin-like influence of the assistant GM, Tony Bernazard,
seem telling. The Mets owners seem to remove problems only when the fans
start to blame the ownership for them; they're never out in front of the
problem.
如果對球迷要公平一點的話，老闆(Wilpons)也應該要走人，我懷疑 Minaya會解套，但
很明顯的是Wilpon對球隊的現況也沒有幫助。流言指出，除非球迷已經把矛頭指向高層
，否則對於這些問題高層通常只會搞河蟹。
If/when Minaya and Manuel are fired, the essential thing for the team is that
the Wilpons (particularly Jeff Wilpon if he's calling the shots now) ask
themselves some tough questions: "Do I (Jeff) have enough knowledge of
business to help run operations at all? Do I have enough knowledge of
baseball to give input on personnel decisions?"
如果Minaya跟Manuel走人了，Wilpon必須要捫心自問的是：我對於球隊management的了
解夠嗎？我對於球隊的人事問題夠了解嗎？
The team, despite its Bernie Madoff woes, will have more resources than most
other teams. With any luck, the Wilpons will hire a management team that
understands management and baseball, a team that uses its experiences to
learn from its mistakes, uses statistics and scouting properly to inform
decisions and doesn't reverse-engineer rationals for actions. Then maybe the
Wilpons can start thinking of putting some champagne on ice.
儘管像是 Bernie Madoff大悲劇一般的慘狀，這支球隊還是需要比其他球隊更多的對策
來處理，萬幸的是，Wilpons 將會雇用一個更了解球隊事物的經營團隊來用他們的經驗
去從錯誤中學習，利用數據分析跟球探報告去下決策然後不要重蹈覆轍，這樣的話也許
高層才有機會去想想要怎麼開香檳吧！