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Five questions: Toronto Blue Jays
by Craig Burley
March 31, 2010
1. When will the team be sold?
什麼時候要賣掉藍杰倫？
Hopefully, soon.
希望快一點囉
We begin on a serious down note, but the 2010 Blue Jays are likely to be a
sonata comprised of a series of down notes. With payroll dramatically slashed
and widespread trade rumors dogging every established player (bar the
untradeable Vernon Wells) the Blue Jays have begun to face the new era After
Ted (Rogers, the founder of the team's ultimate owner Rogers Communications
Inc.).
哎呀呀，一開始就得談論這個嚴肅不堪的話題。不過藍杰倫今年的球季可能比我
們現在的話題更嚴肅不堪阿。在大砍薪資和一陣陣的交易傳言風暴後，藍杰倫終
於要離開 Ted Rogers 時代面臨新紀元了。
Vernon Wells 表示：ㄖㄨㄟ～ㄖㄨㄟ～ㄖㄨㄟ～ (2009 OPS+ = 88)
Ted Rodgers 表示：我的寶藏都不在那裡，要就揀去吧～
Ted wasn't the world's greatest baseball fan, and he didn't understand a
thing about running a ball team. What he did have, was tight control over his
company, and a personal desire to see the team win (within reasonable
economic parameters), which had inspired his decision to buy the Blue Jays in
the first place. Ted's death in December of 2008 meant that the team had lost
much of its raison d'etre and it showed in the meaningless meandering last
season as succession matters within the Rogers empire sorted themselves out.
Ted 不是一個很棒的球迷（婉轉），他不懂怎麼經營。他所做的只有緊緊控制住
他的公司和看到勝利（至少在預算內合理的勝場數）。當 Ted 在 08 年過世後，
Roger's firm 繼續掌控藍杰倫就不再顯得如此必要了，甚至在 Ted 繼承權的安
排中也未對藍杰倫多所著墨，這讓藍杰倫去年球季看起來像是行屍走肉般的漫遊
球隊。
The Blue Jays are by no means a crown jewel of the Rogers empire, from a
business point of view. The sports properties (Jays, Rogers Centre, and the
right to host NFL Bills games) that Rogers owns represent less than 1.7
percent of the revenue of the enterprise as a whole and the Jays are only a
part of that. No one who matters at Rogers cares much about the Jays anymore,
in a business run by accountants who are likely concerned about a team in
decline on and off the field.
Sports property 在 Roger's firm 中僅佔很小的產值。任何注意 Roger's firm
的人都不會對這塊小餅有什麼興趣，就商業的角度而言，也不會有什麼會計師對一
個沒落的球隊的球場大小事感興趣。
Given the widespread apathy that has greeted the Blue Jays from the Toronto
(and Canadian) public in the last 10 years, it has not come as a surprise to
followers of the team that payroll has been dramatically slashed and minor
expenses (such as the hiring of a few unemployed scouts cast aside by other
teams) trumpeted as major turning points in the team's approach. The apathy
of the fans has finally, in an accountant-driven regime, given rise to apathy
from the owners. The likely avenue is that the team will be sold, although as
recently as last October executives from Rogers gave indications that the
team was not for sale. But they had already shown their hand in August; their
commitment to the Toronto Blue Jays was significantly coupled with (according
to the Canadian Press) a commitment that the baseball club's costs be
controlled. CEO Nadir Mohammed's vision is that costs are to be controlled, a
poor cousin to the proven "if you build it they will come" school of building
a winner on the field and in the market.
假使這十年來藍鳥在運動市場上無法引起狂熱是事實，造成藍杰倫接下來的大砍薪
資和小聯盟球探擴增並不讓人太過訝異。市場的冷落，最終影響了球隊的經營政策。
藍杰倫似乎僅剩被出售一途，儘管 Roger's firm 承諾不會出售球隊－－但連帶的
保證球隊必會縮壓薪資。像是貧窮版的「夢幻成真」，主角「Nadir Mohammed」緊
握著一點小小的預算追逐一個建成棒球場的夢想。
It's clear that someone with a serious interest in operating the team will
need to purchase it before success can be regained on the field. The current
administration is led (make no mistake) by The Barefoot Onanist, renowned
yesterday's man Paul Beeston, as team president. Sometimes a cigar is more,
indeed, than just a cigar. It was Beeston who installed the recent office
gofer in the GM's chair, in a move which reminds one of nothing so much as
The Hudsucker Proxy. Beeston (long a courtier of power and a close friend of
Bud Selig) seems to be doing nothing more complex than driving the market
value of the club down, and the way he dominates the conversation with a
lickspittle local sports press (with his general manager nodding furiously in
confused assent beside him) is depressingly familiar to this erstwhile
Montreal Expos fan. So long as someone besides a Beeston-led group eventually
purchases the team, we should begin to imagine the Jays slowly returning to
realistic contention.
像 Ray Kinsella （「夢幻成真」主角）一樣，任何想要經營球隊的人，都必須先
丟下一大把時間、心力和資金，才能慢慢的走向夢想的實現。目前的高層決定讓 Paul
Beeston 掌職 CEO（這句麻煩幫譯）。有時一條菸不只是一條菸，就像 Paul Beeston
不只是一個蠢蛋，而是蠢蛋中的蠢蛋。Beeston 特地雇用一個專司雜務而作不了什
麼像「金錢帝國」中的大事的跑腿。Beestton（這個 Bud Selig 的好友和忠實的狗）
看來做不了任何比拉低球隊市場價值還複雜的任務，而他和狗腿運動記者的對話（
一旁還有個已經胡亂得點頭的倒楣 GM），想必引起了不少當年蒙特羅博覽隊迷那種
似曾相似的絕望感吧。Beeston 領軍的隊伍從來都是淪落到被身邊人捧走，而這次
的藍杰倫呢？等著看吧.....
2. So all is lost for the Jays then?
那難道藍杰倫沒希望了嗎？
Fortunately for the team's fans, life is not always so simple; those who
deserve to lose don't always find a way to do so. It would be foolish to
pretend that the trade of the greatest player to ever don a Blue Jays uniform
has "reinvigorated" the team, but the Blue Jays were not a bad team last year
(frequent appearances to the contrary) and although they have lost much that
is of value, there are a passel of young players and returnees who, if three
or four major things broke right, could push toward Wild Card contention.
很幸運的，再糟的事情也總是有轉圜的餘地，無論你怎麼的想去弄爛它。假裝那
些交易能讓藍杰倫重生是還滿蠢的，但藍杰倫去年的確還不錯啦（好像常常看起
來不是這樣？）。雖然他們失去很多，但他們有很多很多的年輕的和回鍋的球員，
如果其中三或四個能衝破極限，藍杰倫還是能參與外卡爭奪戰的。
麻倉葉表示：極限這種東西多死幾次就衝破了。
The Blue Jays aren't starting from so low that they'd be a historic type of
"miracle team" (like the 1961 Reds, the 1967 Red Sox, 1969 Mets or 2006
Tigers). Those four teams came from considerably further away than these Jays
to win pennants. In the New Historical Abstract, Bill James identified four
factors that the 1960s teams had in common:
相較於那些「傳奇球隊」（1961，Reds、1967，Red Soxs、1969，Mets、2006，
Tigers），藍杰倫的出發點還不算太糟。在《New Historical Abstract》中
Bill James 針對 1960 年代的三隻傳奇球隊做出了四歸結：
（文者試圖寫點藍杰倫的契機。但是不是真有希望，就請自己看看囉。）
1. The team makes some good trades.
2. The team comes up with some young players.
3. The team's existing young players come through big.
4. They can have guys having career years.
一、皆有做出成功的交易，
二、皆有年輕的球員，
三、皆有年輕的球員克服障礙，
四、都有人準備衝出生涯年。
James mentions a fifth factor that applies now, free agency, that didn't
apply in the 1960s.
Bill James 還提出了一點可能幫助一個低潮的球隊復出的因素，FA，不過
並沒有點在那三隻傳奇球隊身上。
James doesn't talk about a key factor regarding points 1 and 4 : it's usually
younger players who are the positive players acquired in trades, or who have
the career years in question. (Think of the 2006 Tigers, who got a great year
from Jeremy Bonderman and developed Curtis Granderson and Justin Verlander).
This brings up a key factor in the Jays' 2010 chances, which is that although
they did lose talent in the offseason, they have several key young players.
Travis Snider, Adam Lind, No. 2 starter Ricky Romero, and No. 4 starter Marc
Rzepczynski are keys there, as well as securing the eventual return of Jesse
Litsch. Of course, surrounding that young core is a large number of older
players, none of whom are superficially all that impressive. Nor do the Jays
have (any longer) the frontline star power of the three 1960s "miracle teams"
(the Reds had Frank Robinson and Vada Pinson; the Red Sox had Yaz, along with
George Scott and Tony Conigliaro; the Mets had Seaver and Koosman on the
mound). These Blue Jays have a young and soon-to-be-ready hitter in Brett
Wallace, a young star-in-the-making in Snider, a developing bat in Lind, and
a fine and still youthful second baseman in Aaron Hill, but no superstars.
There's any number of ways in which those four players could put together a
terrific group of seasons and push the Blue Jays over .500. The Jays in
recent years have been derided for a weak farm system, but that is partially
due to an aggressive pushing of the best young players up the chain, so that
they hit the majors early.
James 並沒有提到第一點和第四點的一個共通關鍵：通常都是年輕或正有機會面
臨生涯年的球員，會在交易中被提出（2006 年的 Tigers，Jeremy Bonderman 投
出代表作，而陣中亦有 Curtis Granderson、Justin Verlander 等大將）。這些（？）
讓藍杰倫的 2010 年球季有了一點希望，儘管少了幾個大咖，藍杰倫還是有幾個
年輕小伙子。Travis Snider、Adam Lind、2nd Ricky Romero、4th Marc Rzepczynski
以及留下的 Jesse Litsch。這些新秀以外的老球員並沒有特別的令人印象深刻，
也不像那些傳奇球隊的台柱（Reds 的 Frank Robinson、Vada Pinson；Red Sox
的燕姿、George Scott、Tony Conigliaro；Mets 的 Seaver、Koosman）藍杰倫
現在則有即將完成的 Brett Wallace、年輕的新秀 Snider、正在成長的 Lind、
很不錯且年輕的二壘手 Aron Hill，只是沒什麼大咖級的而已。這樣的組合可能
會發生很多種結果，也或許能將藍杰倫推上五成大關。但請記得，這些小伙子當
初是被趕著上大聯盟的，因此這幾年來藍杰倫的農場的貧乏也常被人笑話。
Winning now is never likely, but as the "miracle teams" analysis shows, even
in Toronto it's possible. The biggest problem, perhaps, is that management
has not embraced the concept. The Jays are appropriately rank outsiders,
maybe 60-1 or more to win the division. But it's something.
勝利當然是不可能的，但有了那些傳奇球隊的例子，或許藍杰倫其實是有點機會。
最大的問題或許會出在 GM 是否願意相信並嘗試。藍杰倫當然不是很強力的競爭
者，但總也是一個競爭者。
3. Where are the biggest losses?
Marco Scutaro performed well for the Jays last season and will be hugely
missed. And certainly no loss comes bigger than Roy Halladay, the talismanic
leader of the Jays and the league's best starting pitcher of the decade.
Another loss, entirely unheralded but perhaps equally damaging, came when
Brad Arnsberg, who has been the Jays' pitching coach for five seasons
(2005-2009), left on Oct. 30, 2009 to take the pitching coach position with
the Astros.
Houston, you're getting a good one.
Arnsberg has been nothing short of a revelation to a longtime Jays watcher
who has over many years watched the team systematically destroy its young
base of arms through experimentation, neglect, carelessness and cluelessness.
Arnsberg always had a plan; for example, he rarely if ever brought a young
starter to the majors if he thought he wasn't ready, but he reached
innumerable times into Double-A for arms that few if any followers of the
team had ever heard of, and turned them instantly into average major league
starters. He did it with Gustavo Chacin in his first season; did it with
Casey Janssen, Shaun Marcum, then Litsch, then Rzepczynski and Romero (whose
career in the minors was going nowhere fast). He even got some good starts
out of Ty Taubenheim. In the meantime, he took waiver-wire journeymen from
Scott Downs and Brian Tallet to Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp, and helped make
them into good major league relievers. In almost every case Arnsberg did it
with old-fashioned values; he got his players to work harder and get
physically stronger; to be more aggressive with hitters and to work to
preserve their stamina on the mound. It helped immensely, of course, to be
able to point to "Exhibit H", the ultimate example of dedication, hard work
and focus sitting next to them in the locker room. But Arnsberg has developed
fine young pitchers in his earlier stints as well. There are pitchers, good
ones, up and down both leagues who rave about what Arnsberg has done for
their games. Arnsberg's Marlins staff thought of him in the same light, more
than a mere coach, during his tenure there.
The Jays' new regime, since they don't understand the value of a good coach
outside his ability to drink and play cards with the manager, let Arnsberg go
without a fight. Jim Bouton and Jim Brosnan, amongst others, have identified
two distinct types of coaches in baseball: teachers intent on imparting the
best knowledge they can find to their pupils the players; and backslappers
whose strongest skill is playing the manager's favorite card games, but not
too well, and telling his men "don't think too much out there, son."
Arnsberg's replacement as pitching coach is the bullpen coach, Bruce "Pappy"
Walton; Walton has worked with Arnsberg these last few years but the reader
receives no points for guessing which type of coach best describes a man who
has earned the nickname "Pappy." Walton may turn out to be Arnsberg's equal,
but they got less than 50 percent value: a sure thing in the hand versus a
single shadow lurking in the bush.
4. Who are the younger players to watch?
I would identify one player on each side of the ball as keys to the Jays'
season. The first is the young 22-year-old outfielder Travis Snider. Snider
has impressed me with his approach since coming to the team; he looked a bit
lumpish and oafish as a 20-year-old rookie (though one with a very impressive
bat). He has since lost some of that football weight and looks positively
trim by comparison. Snider had some problems adapting to the pitching last
year and fought a bad slump (.192 in 54 PA with only one extra-base hit)
before being sent down in May; he returned in August and hit much better; the
last 32 days of the season he had 110 PA and posted an OPS of .851, directly
in line with expectations. Snider's continued development is of extreme
interest because of the power potential he brings to a lineup that often has
underperformed in that aspect.
The pitcher is Romero, the former high first-round pick out of East Los
Angeles by way of the great baseball program at Cal State-Fullerton. Romero
was drafted as a lefty with immense promise but while he remained lefthanded,
the promise seemed to leach away from him during his first years in the
minors. Brought to major league camp at the beginning of last season,
Arnsberg helped change his approach radically, and Romero took off and
attacked the league like it was Illinois Nazis, compiling 13 brilliant
starts. Then the "dark side" to the Arnsberg/Gaston regime began to show
itself; Romero threw six long, punishing starts in a row in the space of 26
days in the summer heat of late June and early July, and he wasn't the same
pitcher for the rest of the year, posting a 5.52 ERA after a 3.00 ERA before
then. Romero could potentially come back and nail down that No. 2 starter
berth and be one of the AL's best.
5. What was it like?
Blue Jays fans should remember that question, because that is what your
grandchild who loves baseball may well ask you one day. Fix it in your mind,
and fix your answer while the memories are fresh.
Because it was awe-inspiring. The Doc Show was like nothing else I have ever
seen, and I seriously doubt I will ever see the likes of it again, because
the combination of qualities that went into making Roy Halladay are just
unlikely to emerge here for a very, very long time. Although a starting
pitcher only takes the mound once every five days (and therefore can't
provide the day-to-day on-field leadership role of a position player)
Halladay occupied a similar role to Wendel Clark's iconic role that is
seemingly imprinted in this city's (indeed, this country's) civic memory.
Roy's virtues, it is widely felt, are our virtues, at least the public
virtues we profess to admire; and therefore are those most widely admired in
a public figure. Consistency, dedication, hard work, indomitability,
determination to succeed and to improve oneself. He never put a foot wrong,
in any way, on or off the field.
If you've ever had a job, a difficult one that demands your care and pay
attention all the time, without relent, and where you were always in
competition with others, you can relate to the object lesson that Roy
Halladay provides you with in professionalism and in dedication. Halladay was
the archetype, an athlete that you could, realistically, call a role model.
He will be missed. When I see a pitch delivered on a string, right to the
mitt, on 0-2 this summer, I will think of him.
What was it like? It was beautiful.