※ [本文轉錄自 RedSox 看板]
作者: nolander (Dent) 看板: RedSox
標題: Re: [討論] Five questions: Boston Red Sox
時間: Fri Apr 2 03:24:51 2010
※ 引述《appshjkli (貓肉球)》之銘言：
Five questions: Boston Red Sox
by Alex Pedicini
April 01, 2010
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox5/
1. How much better will the defense be?
1. 守備面會進步多少?
Boston upgraded several positions defensively this offseason. The signings of
Marco Scutaro at shortstop, Adrian Beltre at third, and Mike Cameron in
center, and moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left to replace Jason Bay, should all
help to improve Boston's defense. According to UZR, the Red Sox had the
16th-best defense in the league last year at -16.3 runs. I expect that they
should be near the top of this category next season provided these new
acquisitions stay healthy.
瘦襪在守備面升級了好幾個位置 Scutaro的游擊 吹哥的三壘 卡麥隆的中外
改左外換下接生貝的假摳比, 應該都是明顯的升級 從UZR的角度看: -16.3分
瘦襪至少是去年全聯盟第16好的 這些新血要是能健康
我期待新球季的瘦襪守備面會是全聯盟頂尖的
Beltre will provide an immediate upgrade over the aging and injured Mike
Lowell. Lowell's range has deteriorated, while Beltre is in Gold Glove form.
He missed time last year. but when healthy, he is among the best defensive
third basemen. Scutaro is a solid defender as well. He may not be the whiz
that Alex Gonzalez is, but he at least provides some offensive support as
well. Although not spectacular, he makes the plays you would expect your
shortstop to make. Cameron has earned the reputation as one of the best
defensive center fielders of this era. He possesses great instincts, which is
something Ellsbury has lacked at times. Ellsbury may be better suited for
left field, where he has played very well, albeit in small sample sizes, in
the past.
三壘換成吹哥毫不猶豫的就是超級大升級 跟年長又屁屁痛的麥肉比有點不厚道
但這可是一個真正的金手套三壘哪! 去年雖然不太行可健康的吹哥絕對是頂尖中的頂尖
Scutaro則是個穩定的SS 雖然也許不像A-Gon那麼強勁(譯按:我想是指臂力)
靠著應該相當穩定的進攻輸出 至少會是個攻守端都像樣的游擊手
(按:反正不會比魯勾爛啦!)
卡麥隆早已建立外野頂尖守備的名聲 比小帥哥更靈的守備直覺
讓我們能把守左外似乎更好的小帥哥放在正確的地方
I took a rather unscientific approach to looking at how much the run
prevention would improve from 2009 to 2010. I suggested that a reduction of
somewhere around 80 runs allowed would seem reasonable, putting them at about
650 runs allowed in 2010. This would put them among the best teams in the
league at preventing runs.
我以一個比較不科學的角度看這群新野手能多守下多少分 可能會落在80分上下
也就是說 會掉650分是合理的估計 這將是全聯盟守備最不易掉分的球隊
Obviously, this will depend on several factors. Cameron is 36 this year and
entering his 16th season in the major leagues. Beltre is coming off an
injury-plagued year, although he does appear healthy now. Scutaro will be 34
this year, and Ellsbury will have to adjust to playing a new everyday
position. Ellsbury's defense has been subject to much scrutiny by Boston fans
and media. His UZR last year was -18.6, which was among the worst of all
full-time center fielders. He should benefit by playing in left alongside
Cameron, and I expect that his numbers will return to being above average
defensively. Dustin Pedroia at second, Kevin Youkilis at first, and J.D. Drew
in right round out a solid all-around defensive unit that should make a vast
improvement from last year.
要達到這麼好的表現當然得靠點天意啦...
卡麥隆已經36了 目前健康的吹哥也不知道能不能完全從傷病中恢復 Scutaro也34了...
小帥哥'09守中外的UZR是頗糗的-18.6 在挑剔的襪迷跟媒體面前實在不夠亮眼
(按:明明就很多人幫他平反阿) 換守位會是個福音 至少他跟卡麥隆應該能合作愉快
我估計他會是個平均以上的左外 而二壘的嘴炮一壘的光頭跟右外的豬早已是最強勁的
右半邊守備線 總合起來投手後面將明顯比去年守下更多分(按:阿捕手勒!?)
2. Does this lineup need another big bat?
2. 打線揪~~竟需不需要更新個大棒子呢?
After all the Adrian Gonzalez trade talk this winter, the Red Sox decided not
to make a move. Boston lost Jason Bay's production in the outfield and
replaced his bat with Mike Cameron's. The team did upgrade the lineup with
Scutaro and Beltre. While this team may lack a true 40-home-run slugger, it
has depth from top to bottom.
喧鬧了整個冬天 一壘大棒ㄟ剛還是沒來紅襪 失去了貝爺的強勁供輸但收進了卡麥隆
Scutaro跟吹哥在攻擊面應該是升級 這球隊也許不會有40轟的大棒
但深度應該是相當像樣了
The Opening Day lineup could look something like this: Ellsbury, Pedroia,
Youkilis, Martinez, Ortiz, Drew, Beltre, Cameron, Scutaro. It is true that no
one player strikes fear into opposing pitchers and managers, but there are no
glaring holes in the order as of now. Ultimately, the team will likely need
to add a big bat down the line. Whether or not this move comes this season
will largely depend on the production of David Ortiz. Ortiz's struggles were
well documented last year. He still managed to slug .462, but this was a far
cry from his previous numbers. If he can return to hitting 30-plus home runs
and slugging over .500, the Red Sox will be pleased.
開幕打序會是:小帥 嘴炮 光頭 v馬 老爹 豬 吹哥 卡麥隆 Scutaro
即使沒有一個能把敵隊投手跟教練嚇到尿褲子 但也沒有一個明顯的洞會讓粉科男哭哭
大棒是一定要補的 至於多急迫端看老爹表現的威力啦~
去年的糗態世界都看到了 即使留下.462的SLG 比起以前的老爹還是差得遠
要是老爹能打出30+ .500 紅襪絕對會高潮的!
The organization knows, for the most part, what to expect from Dustin
Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez. While none of them are true
power threats, Youkilis has posted ISOs of .257 and .242 in the last two
seasons. Pedroia and Martinez will provide high averages and the ability to
reach base consistently. J.D. Drew, when healthy, is among Boston's most
productive hitters. He walks at a high rate (14.5 percent for his career) and
has decent power (.221 ISO). He is 34 now and entering his 13th season, but
he will still be able to reach base even as he ages.
球隊期待嘴炮 光頭跟v馬打出相當的狀態 但也明白這三支不是真正的大棒
KY前兩季的ISO(純長打率)是.257跟.242 是不錯但嚇不倒我的
嘴炮跟v馬很會上壘 應該能持續在位置上位居聯盟前段
而右外那隻優雅的豬 健康ㄟ西尊可以說是整隊最有建設性的打者
14.5啪的保送率 像樣的.221ISO (按:即使不便宜也算是有水準)
即使34了 穩定的上壘能力會讓豬很像樣的! (豬:上壘?略懂)
Jacoby Ellsbury emerged as a premier base stealer last season after he swiped
70 bags and was caught just 12 times. After struggling for some of the 2008
season as pitchers began to adjust to him, he looked much more comfortable at
the plate last year. Adrian Beltre will be looking to bounce back from a
career-low ISO of .114. He signed a one-year deal in Boston and should
benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Beltre will never again
be the player that hit 48 home runs in 2004, but 25 or more is not out of the
question this season. Cameron, although nearing the end of career, has still
shown some power and should use the wall to his advantage. Scutaro is a
classic moneyball type player and has a penchant for reaching base.
小帥哥則是略懂盜壘 去年70次成功只被抓到12次 (這裡不太確定是70次嘗試還是?)
在08年的掙扎之後 去年他站上打擊區舒服很多了
吹哥應該會從去年的谷底(生涯最低的ISO.114)大反彈 一年約跟芬威會是有利因素
即使04年的48轟是曇花 但25+不會辦不到~
已經到了生涯尾端的卡麥隆會利用綠色怪物表現出長打威力的!
Scutaro早已展現出對上壘的愛好 是個典型的錢球選手 沒問題低!
3. What can they expect from the back of the rotation?
3. 能對後段輪值有多少期待?
Boston's top three rotation spots appear to be set with Josh Beckett, Jon
Lester, and John Lackey. These three give Boston one of the best pitching
trios in the league. However, there are some big questions about the other
starting spots.
見鬼的強大前三號絕對是全聯盟最邀售的鐵三角 但後兩號問題也不小
Daisuke Matsuzaka finally appears rested and recovered from shoulder fatigue
and weakness that plagued him all of last season. He is not expected to begin
the year on the 25-man roster as he just made his spring training debut last
week. Dice-K threw just 59.2 innings for Boston last year and was completely
ineffective as a result of an injury suffered during the World Baseball
Classic. This was compounded by the fact that he hid his injuries from the
team and then criticized the organization's conditioning program.
牛肉終於從去年的肩傷中走出 雖然趕不上開季 (上週才第一次踏上春訓丘)
去年那精美的59.2局 另外他隱瞞傷勢且批評球隊的訓練菜單
說明了WBC是會讓牛肉變難吃的.....
Matsuzaka's style has always been unique and oftentimes frustrating to watch.
He is content to nibble at the corners and his pitch counts are often very
high. He walks over four batter per nine innings but also posts high
strikeout numbers. He relies on his deceptiveness and changing speeds to keep
batters off-balance. When healthy he can be a successful pitcher and probably
the best fourth starter in the league. Barring any setbacks, Matsuzaka should
rejoin the team by mid- to late April. For now, the veteran knuckler Tim
Wakefield will fill his void. Wakefield is durable and consistent even as he
enters his 18th major league season.
牛肉的精算風向來是獨特且讓球迷火大的 他習慣瞄好球帶的皮 球數不投滿好像會死
造成他每九局保送4個打者左右 但三振率也不可小覷就是
他總是利用速差和多樣的變化球摧毀打者的平衡
健康的他手臂能操 絕對是全聯盟最強的四號 (按:他當四號 去別隊是幾號?)
若順利 四月底大概能重回輪值 那之前就讓我們欣賞蝴蝶老榮民的第18春吧!
Clay Buchholz will look to establish himself in Boston's rotation this season
after spending parts of the last two seasons between Boston and Triple-A.
Buchholz has been somewhat of an enigma during his tenure. He burst onto the
scene with a no-hitter in 2007. He has dominated Triple-A hitters with ease,
but his stuff has not always been able to translate into the majors. He did
pitch much better during September and his command is improving.
巴釦子應該會好好的佔據輪值一角 不再只是跑龍套
他謎般的實力:07的無安打 屠殺3A且超高的stuff沒有完整反映在大聯盟的投球中
去年九月明顯有進步且控球也變好了
This could be a critical season for Buchholz. He has top-of-the-rotation
stuff, but it is easy to overlook the fact that the 25-year-old has made just
34 career starts. The organization will be looking for him to make 25-30
starts this season. If Buchholz can put the pieces together this year,
Boston's staff could be a force to be reckoned with. If not, I wouldn't be
surprised if Clay were used in a potential trade next year.
本季是關鍵 他輪值前段的潛力但不可否認的25歲卻只先發了34場...
紅襪球團期待他先發25~30場 如果投出身價明年大概能拿到長約
要不 就等著看他包一包換支大棒子吧
4. What will happen to Ortiz?
4. 老爹會怎麼過?
No player is more loved and respected in Boston than David Ortiz. Big Papi
has been a staple in the middle of the order for Boston and a fan-friendly
ambassador for the organization. This is precisely why last year was such a
painful season for him and fans. Ortiz has, deservedly, been given a longer
leash than most in Boston. Boston is pretty thin at 1B/DH without Ortiz, and
the team is banking on him regaining his form. He did bounce back somewhat
form a horrid start last year but never truly regained his confidence at the
plate.
老爹大概是紅襪國史上最鍾愛的選手了吧 長時間扛下中心棒次且熱愛紅襪的他
說是紅襪的精神領袖也不過分 因此去年的掙扎讓他跟襪迷都痛苦萬分
他的地位讓他有更多的機會找回自己 要是他表現差 紅襪的DH其實不太好看
他從未真正找回對棒子的信心...去年末的小反彈還不夠阿阿阿阿阿阿阿阿阿
Ortiz will be out to show that last year was a fluke and prove the steroid
skeptics wrong. There are concerns, however, that the 34-year old is aging
rapidly and his power is diminishing. On top of this he has dealt with some
nagging injuries, including a wrist injury that forced him to miss time in
2008. After posting ISOs of over .300 his first five seasons in Boston,
Ortiz's numbers have dipped to .243 and .224 in '08 and '09. Dave Allen of
Fangraphs pointed out that his power to right has dwindled as his power to
left has risen. He appeared to be swinging and missing more often and was
having trouble getting around on good fastballs, both of which could be
indicative of his aging.
老爹會拿起棒子說去年的糗態是意外並且叫那些攻擊他用藥的人閉嘴!!
然而34歲的他老化速度驚人地快 炮瓦的消失在手腕傷勢催化下更是明顯
在紅襪的頭五季破三成的ISO讓近兩季的.243跟.224像____一樣爛
Fangraphs的Dave Allen說老爹往右拉的力道變差了但往左的力道卻增加
揮空率變高且打不到剛速球都可能是老化的表現...
THT Forecasts project for a .364 wOBA and 1.6 WAR, which compares favorably
to other projections for Ortiz. This is a far cry from his past numbers, but
still the Red Sox will gladly take this type of production. Behind Ortiz,
Boston's options are Mike Lowell or Jeremy Hermida, so Ortiz is a significant
upgrade here. His days are likely numbered as Boston's DH. If he gets off to
a slow start, I think Boston will begin to look elsewhere. The Sox cannot
afford to watch and hope the old Ortiz returns, especially in the competitive
AL East. For now, Ortiz will be given every opportunity to start and knock in
runs.
THT Forecasts認為老爹會打出.364wOBA跟1.6WAR 已經是對老爹很友善的預測
這跟過去的大棒老爹還是有一段距離但要是成真紅襪會很感恩的
老爹之後 賣肉跟Jeremy Hermida是可能的備胎 然而這兩條胎都不算好胎
紅襪的DH就是老爹 但要是開季很糗 球團會迅速找更好的備胎
再花半季等老爹恢復只會讓美東列強偷笑而已
目前老爹還有機會 我們期待他打進更多分數
5. Can they top the Yankees?
5. 能阻止紐約人嗎?
This is the question every year in Boston. The Red Sox were more active this
winter, spending more money than their adversaries in New York. As it stands
right now, CHONE projects for 99 wins for New York and 93 for Boston. As much
as it pains me to say, I think the Yankees will be the team to beat. Boston
will have a difficult time keeping up with the Yankees' slugging lineup.
每年這都是個問題 但今年主動的帥哥經理表現出了企圖心
CHONE預測紐約99勝而紅襪93....
我個人痛苦的說...紅襪應該會追紐約的強大打線追的很辛苦
New York may win the division, but I certainly feel an eventual ALCS match-up
is in the future. The Red Sox are built to win in the postseason as their
staff will give them a huge advantage in any short series. They should be
competitive with New York throughout the season, although the expectations
are that another World Series may be in store this year.
紐約人應該會拿到分區冠軍 但我有信心不管怎樣紅襪也會進入ALCS的
強大的輪值讓紅襪在季後賽有相當的優勢 整季跟紐約廝殺會很辛苦
但我期待紅襪今年再拿下一個世界大賽桂冠!!!
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不好意思 第一次翻譯 中途有的形容方式是我自己想的
但相信不出原意太多
請各位指教~