原文網址：
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-boston-red-sox5/
縮網址：
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Five questions: Boston Red Sox
by Alex Pedicini
April 01, 2010
1. How much better will the defense be?
防守能夠變多好？
Boston upgraded several positions defensively this offseason. The signings of
Marco Scutaro at shortstop, Adrian Beltre at third, and Mike Cameron in
center, and moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left to replace Jason Bay, should all
help to improve Boston's defense. According to UZR, the Red Sox had the
16th-best defense in the league last year at -16.3 runs. I expect that they
should be near the top of this category next season provided these new
acquisitions stay healthy.
紅襪季前升級了許多守位的防守。Marco Scutaro站游擊、Adrian Beltre站三壘、
Mike Cameron站中外野、然後把Jacoby Ellsbury移防左外取代Jason Bay，應該都
能提升防守。根據UZR，紅襪去年有全聯盟第16好的守備(-16.3 runs)。如果這些
守位上的新面孔能夠保持健康，下一季在這個項目上該有接近頂尖的表現。
Beltre will provide an immediate upgrade over the aging and injured Mike
Lowell. Lowell's range has deteriorated, while Beltre is in Gold Glove form.
He missed time last year. but when healthy, he is among the best defensive
third basemen. Scutaro is a solid defender as well. He may not be the whiz
that Alex Gonzalez is, but he at least provides some offensive support as
well. Although not spectacular, he makes the plays you would expect your
shortstop to make. Cameron has earned the reputation as one of the best
defensive center fielders of this era. He possesses great instincts, which is
something Ellsbury has lacked at times. Ellsbury may be better suited for
left field, where he has played very well, albeit in small sample sizes, in
the past.
相較於老化和痛痛的Mike Lowell，Beltre能提供立即的守備升級。Lowell的守備範
圍退化而Beltre卻是金手套等級的。他去年錯過了一些比賽，但是當他保持健康，將
是最好的三壘防守者之一。Scutaro也是穩固的防守者。他可能不是Alex Gonzalez那
樣的天才，但至少能提供火力上的支援。儘管不那麼引人注目，他能夠做到一般要求
一個游擊手該做到的。Cameron早已是這個年代最好的中外野防守者之一。他擁有
Ellsbury目前所欠缺的很棒的直覺。Ellsbury可能更適合左外野，雖然是小樣本，但
他在那守得不錯。
I took a rather unscientific approach to looking at how much the run
prevention would improve from 2009 to 2010. I suggested that a reduction of
somewhere around 80 runs allowed would seem reasonable, putting them at about
650 runs allowed in 2010. This would put them among the best teams in the
league at preventing runs.
我使用了相對不科學的方法來檢視2009到2010在防止得分上有多少進步。我想80分左右
的減少該是挺合理的，2010年被得個約650分。這將使他們成為防止失分上最好的球隊。
Obviously, this will depend on several factors. Cameron is 36 this year and
entering his 16th season in the major leagues. Beltre is coming off an
injury-plagued year, although he does appear healthy now. Scutaro will be 34
this year, and Ellsbury will have to adjust to playing a new everyday
position. Ellsbury's defense has been subject to much scrutiny by Boston fans
and media. His UZR last year was -18.6, which was among the worst of all
full-time center fielders. He should benefit by playing in left alongside
Cameron, and I expect that his numbers will return to being above average
defensively. Dustin Pedroia at second, Kevin Youkilis at first, and J.D. Drew
in right round out a solid all-around defensive unit that should make a vast
improvement from last year.
明顯地，這將取決於幾個因素。Cameron將要36了然後即將進入第16個球季。Beltre剛
脫離一個傷痛所擾的球季，儘管現在看來挺健康。Scutaro將要34而Ellsbury要去適應
一個新守位。Ellsbury的防守將會受到波士頓球迷和媒體更多的檢視。他去年的UZR
是-18.6，全職中外野手中的最差。他將會受惠於站在Cameron左側防守，且我預測該數
字會回到約平均水準。Dustin Pedroia在二壘、Kevin Youkilis在一壘、J.D. Drew在
右外野組成了堅實的守備隊形，相較於去年會有巨大的進步。
2. Does this lineup need another big bat?
這條打線需要再一個大棒子？
After all the Adrian Gonzalez trade talk this winter, the Red Sox decided not
to make a move. Boston lost Jason Bay's production in the outfield and
replaced his bat with Mike Cameron's. The team did upgrade the lineup with
Scutaro and Beltre. While this team may lack a true 40-home-run slugger, it
has depth from top to bottom.
這冬天談到了Adrian Gonzalez的交易，但紅襪決定按兵不動。失去了Jason Bay的產出，
取而代之的是Mike Cameron。因為Scutaro和Beltre，球隊確實升級了打線。儘管缺少一
個能幹40發的強打者，整個隊伍從上到下充滿深度。
The Opening Day lineup could look something like this: Ellsbury, Pedroia,
Youkilis, Martinez, Ortiz, Drew, Beltre, Cameron, Scutaro. It is true that no
one player strikes fear into opposing pitchers and managers, but there are no
glaring holes in the order as of now. Ultimately, the team will likely need
to add a big bat down the line. Whether or not this move comes this season
will largely depend on the production of David Ortiz. Ortiz's struggles were
well documented last year. He still managed to slug .462, but this was a far
cry from his previous numbers. If he can return to hitting 30-plus home runs
and slugging over .500, the Red Sox will be pleased.
開幕的先發看來會是這樣：Ellsbury、Pedroia、Youkilis、Martinez、Ortiz、Drew、
Beltre、Cameron、Scutaro。確實，沒有一個會讓對手膽寒，但現在這條打線的確沒有
特別弱的一環。這季將會極度依賴David Ortiz的產出。去年Ortiz打得掙扎。他仍打出
了.462的長打率，但這遠遜於過往的數字。他若能打個30發然後SLG.500，紅襪會很開
心的。
The organization knows, for the most part, what to expect from Dustin
Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez. While none of them are true
power threats, Youkilis has posted ISOs of .257 and .242 in the last two
seasons. Pedroia and Martinez will provide high averages and the ability to
reach base consistently. J.D. Drew, when healthy, is among Boston's most
productive hitters. He walks at a high rate (14.5 percent for his career) and
has decent power (.221 ISO). He is 34 now and entering his 13th season, but
he will still be able to reach base even as he ages.
大家都知道該期待Dustin Pedroia、Kevin Youkilis和Victor Martinez什麼。但是他
們都不是大砲威脅。Youkilis過往兩年的ISOs─.257和.242。Pedroia和Martinez可以
提供高打率和持續上壘。J.D. Drew如果健康會是紅襪產出最佳的打者。被BB率高(生涯
14.5%)然後像樣的砲瓦(.221 ISO)。他34了然後邁入第13個球季，但仍能上壘。
Jacoby Ellsbury emerged as a premier base stealer last season after he swiped
70 bags and was caught just 12 times. After struggling for some of the 2008
season as pitchers began to adjust to him, he looked much more comfortable at
the plate last year. Adrian Beltre will be looking to bounce back from a
career-low ISO of .114. He signed a one-year deal in Boston and should
benefit from playing at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Beltre will never again
be the player that hit 48 home runs in 2004, but 25 or more is not out of the
question this season. Cameron, although nearing the end of career, has still
shown some power and should use the wall to his advantage. Scutaro is a
classic moneyball type player and has a penchant for reaching base.
Jacoby Ellsbury去年偷了70個壘包被抓了12次，完全的盜壘人。08年因為投手抓到弱點
掙扎了好一會，去年情況好多了。Adrian Beltre嘗試著從生涯低點的.114 ISO谷底反彈。
他簽了一年約且應該會得利於對打者有利的芬威球場。Beltre永遠不會再是那個04年幹
了48發的人，但是25發應該不成問題。Cameron儘管處在職業末期，仍有一定砲瓦且會好
好利用那面牆。Scutaro是典型的moneyball類型球員且擅長上壘。
3. What can they expect from the back of the rotation?
能夠期待後段輪值些什麼？
Boston's top three rotation spots appear to be set with Josh Beckett, Jon
Lester, and John Lackey. These three give Boston one of the best pitching
trios in the league. However, there are some big questions about the other
starting spots.
頭三號會是 Josh Beckett、Jon Lester和John Lackey。這三位讓紅襪擁有聯盟最棒
的三人組。然而，其他先發位置有蠻大的問題。
Daisuke Matsuzaka finally appears rested and recovered from shoulder fatigue
and weakness that plagued him all of last season. He is not expected to begin
the year on the 25-man roster as he just made his spring training debut last
week. Dice-K threw just 59.2 innings for Boston last year and was completely
ineffective as a result of an injury suffered during the World Baseball
Classic. This was compounded by the fact that he hid his injuries from the
team and then criticized the organization's conditioning program.
松阪終於好好休息了...從去年困擾他的肩膀問題慢慢恢復中。並不預期上星期在春訓
投了第一場比賽後他能夠從25人名單中出發。他去年只替紅襪丟了59.2局而且因為WBC
受的傷讓這些工作完全沒效率。加上他隱瞞了傷勢還批評了體系的調整規畫。
Matsuzaka's style has always been unique and oftentimes frustrating to watch.
He is content to nibble at the corners and his pitch counts are often very
high. He walks over four batter per nine innings but also posts high
strikeout numbers. He relies on his deceptiveness and changing speeds to keep
batters off-balance. When healthy he can be a successful pitcher and probably
the best fourth starter in the league. Barring any setbacks, Matsuzaka should
rejoin the team by mid- to late April. For now, the veteran knuckler Tim
Wakefield will fill his void. Wakefield is durable and consistent even as he
enters his 18th major league season.
松阪的投球型態一直非常獨特且看起來令人感到灰心。他喜歡投邊邊角角讓他的用球數
很多。BB/9超過4但也有很多三振。他依賴他迷惑打者的方式和速差來破壞打者的平衡。
如果健康，他會是非常成功的投手且很有可能是聯盟最好的四號先發。除去任何傷痛復
發，松阪會在四月中或底歸隊。目前Wakefield將會填上這個空缺。Wakefield很耐操且
非常穩定，儘管已經要進入他第18個球季了。
Clay Buchholz will look to establish himself in Boston's rotation this season
after spending parts of the last two seasons between Boston and Triple-A.
Buchholz has been somewhat of an enigma during his tenure. He burst onto the
scene with a no-hitter in 2007. He has dominated Triple-A hitters with ease,
but his stuff has not always been able to translate into the majors. He did
pitch much better during September and his command is improving.
前兩年在大聯盟和3A沉淺的Clay Buchholz將在本季建立自己在紅襪輪值的地位。
Buchholz在他工作崗位上的表現一直是個謎。2007年嶄露頭角的無安打比賽。輕鬆殺翻
3A但是實力一直沒辦法換成實績。但他九月確實投的好多了、控球也進步了。
This could be a critical season for Buchholz. He has top-of-the-rotation
stuff, but it is easy to overlook the fact that the 25-year-old has made just
34 career starts. The organization will be looking for him to make 25-30
starts this season. If Buchholz can put the pieces together this year,
Boston's staff could be a force to be reckoned with. If not, I wouldn't be
surprised if Clay were used in a potential trade next year.
這對Buchholz會是嚴峻的一年。他擁有輪值最佳的天賦，但這個25歲的球員僅僅先發了
34場。球團會希望他今天先發個25-30場。若Buchholz今年可以填補上戰力，波士頓的
制服組就不容小覷。若無法，明年被交易掉我也不意外。
4. What will happen to Ortiz?
什麼事會發生在Ortiz身上？
No player is more loved and respected in Boston than David Ortiz. Big Papi
has been a staple in the middle of the order for Boston and a fan-friendly
ambassador for the organization. This is precisely why last year was such a
painful season for him and fans. Ortiz has, deservedly, been given a longer
leash than most in Boston. Boston is pretty thin at 1B/DH without Ortiz, and
the team is banking on him regaining his form. He did bounce back somewhat
form a horrid start last year but never truly regained his confidence at the
plate.
沒有球員比Ortiz在波士頓更受愛戴和尊敬。老爹早已是先發裡的主幹，也是球團的親
善大使。這對他和球迷來說正是特別痛苦的一件事。應然地，Ortiz在波士頓被賦予了
更高的期待。紅襪在1B/DH上若沒有Ortiz將非常薄弱，球隊也仰賴他重回應有狀態。他
確實在可怕的開季後有些反彈，但從未真正重拾打擊區上的信心。
Ortiz will be out to show that last year was a fluke and prove the steroid
skeptics wrong. There are concerns, however, that the 34-year old is aging
rapidly and his power is diminishing. On top of this he has dealt with some
nagging injuries, including a wrist injury that forced him to miss time in
2008. After posting ISOs of over .300 his first five seasons in Boston,
Ortiz's numbers have dipped to .243 and .224 in '08 and '09. Dave Allen of
Fangraphs pointed out that his power to right has dwindled as his power to
left has risen. He appeared to be swinging and missing more often and was
having trouble getting around on good fastballs, both of which could be
indicative of his aging.
Ortiz將要證明去年是個意外而且懷疑他使用類固醇的人錯了。確有些疑慮，這個34歲
的打者老化快速且力量消失中。之中最大的問題是有些使人不得安寧的傷痛，包含讓他
2008年缺陣的腕傷。打出了在紅襪前五年ISOs.300，'08和'09下探到.243和.224。
Dave Allen指出他打到右邊的砲瓦慢慢減弱但打到左邊卻提升了。揮空率上升了且在應
付有品質的速球上也出現了問題，兩者顯示他老了。
THT Forecasts project for a .364 wOBA and 1.6 WAR, which compares favorably
to other projections for Ortiz. This is a far cry from his past numbers, but
still the Red Sox will gladly take this type of production. Behind Ortiz,
Boston's options are Mike Lowell or Jeremy Hermida, so Ortiz is a significant
upgrade here. His days are likely numbered as Boston's DH. If he gets off to
a slow start, I think Boston will begin to look elsewhere. The Sox cannot
afford to watch and hope the old Ortiz returns, especially in the competitive
AL East. For now, Ortiz will be given every opportunity to start and knock in
runs.
THT預測.364 wOBA和1.6 WAR，相較於其他預測已是相當友善。對Ortiz來說跟他過往成
績有很大落差，但紅襪會很高興他有這樣的產出。除了Ortiz就剩Mike Lowell或
Jeremy Hermida，相較來說Ortiz真是好上一截。他將會一直擔任紅襪DH。如果開季太
慢進入狀況，我想紅襪會尋求替代方案。紅襪無法一直等待Ortiz回春，尤其是在競爭
激烈的美東。目前Ortiz會有先發機會然後打進分數。
5. Can they top the Yankees?
他們能拉下洋基嗎？
This is the question every year in Boston. The Red Sox were more active this
winter, spending more money than their adversaries in New York. As it stands
right now, CHONE projects for 99 wins for New York and 93 for Boston. As much
as it pains me to say, I think the Yankees will be the team to beat. Boston
will have a difficult time keeping up with the Yankees' slugging lineup.
每年在波士頓這都是個問題。今年冬天他們更積極，比洋基花了更多錢。目前看來，
CHONE預測了洋基99勝而紅襪93勝。洋基會是頭號敵人。紅襪在努力跟上洋基的暴力打線
上會非常辛苦。
New York may win the division, but I certainly feel an eventual ALCS match-up
is in the future. The Red Sox are built to win in the postseason as their
staff will give them a huge advantage in any short series. They should be
competitive with New York throughout the season, although the expectations
are that another World Series may be in store this year.
洋基會贏得分區冠軍，但我確信未來的ALCS對戰。因為制服組創造在短期賽程贏球的
巨大優勢，紅襪會在季後賽勝出。一整季他們都會是洋基最大的競爭者，儘管預期世界
大賽會是他們的囊中物。