http://goo.gl/86HpYD
Yoan Moncada: The Most Fascinating Story of the Offseason
by Kiley McDaniel - November 13, 2014
I wrote about 19-year-old Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada last month, but enough
has happened since then that it’s time for an update. Yesterday, he had his
first open workout since leaving Cuba, with scouts gathering for the
spectacle in Guatemala City. About 100 scouts were there, with nearly every
team represented and most rolling a few deep with heavy hitters: special
assistants, VPs and directors of scouting. Before I get to the talent,
interested teams and potential bonus, I’m going to take a step back and let
you guys know how weird this situation already has become.
An Unprecedented Background
I was told by Moncada’s agent last week that he was allowed by the Cuban
government to leave the country, that Moncada has a Cuban passport and can
fly back to the country whenever he wants to. I haven’t been able to
formally confirm this, but there’s no reason for the agent to lie about it,
and multiple high ranking club executives told me this is how they understand
the situation at this point as well.
Take a moment and let that sink in. Countless dozens of ballplayers and
hundreds of normal citizens have risked their lives to leave the island on
makeshift boats and under the cover of darkness. The government apparently
just let one of their best ballplayers in a long time just leave on a flight
to Central America. There’s been plenty of unfounded speculation about how
and why this happened, with some prominent executives still unclear on how it
was even possible.
There are no indications what this could mean for the next wave of players
that want to defect. Players were defecting in the old style just months
ago, so it’s not like people knew this shift was happening. It could also
not be a shift at all, as the story could be much more complicated than we
know right now. Or it could just be a one-time deal. We don’t know. I didn’
t want to report this until I had something concrete, but teams are debating
how many tens of millions of dollars they want to spend on this phenom and
they still don’t know how this happened or what it means, so it seems
reasonable to report the confusion.
On top of the unusual way he got off the island, Moncada is being represented
not by a known baseball agent, but by a CPA from St. Petersburg who has never
negotiated a baseball contract before. From my conversation with this agent,
he doesn’t plan to bring in more seasoned baseball representation to assist
him, either. He told me he wanted to keep his profile low and not let this
negotiation turn into a circus or to be about him, so I won’t publish his
name. That said, his involvement is a big part of this story. How this guy
got hooked up with one of the best amateur talents in the world while the
dozen or so agents that represent basically all Cuban players whiffed is only
fueling the fire that there’s more than a few things we don’t know about
this situation.
Nothing that’s happened so far suggests that this agent can’t properly
handle the duties necessary for this situation (contract negotiations,
coordinating workouts, managing expectations, dealing with the media, filing
the mountains of paperwork, etc.) but you can be sure that some people are
doubting him. As I tweeted earlier today, a scout at the event told me that
two agents from Scott Boras’ agency went to the showcase yesterday and were
removed from the premises by armed guards.
A Singular Talent
It was a pleasant surprise for scouts that what they were told to expect from
Moncada—a 6’1/210 switch-hitting infielder with plus tools and a Puig body—
is what they saw. It sounds like there will be another open workout coming
because, for the price that scouts are thinking it will take to sign Moncada,
teams will want to see him face live pitching; he only faced live BP at the
workout. I’ll wait until that happens to formally toss around scouting
grades, but the ability we were all told about is there: plus bat speed, plus
raw power, 65 to 70 speed (6.6 in the 60), the feel and hands to stick in the
infield and enough arm to play anywhere on the field.
Moncada’s swing is better from the left side and scouts said he looked
uncomfortable taking grounders at shortstop, though most thought before the
showcase that he wouldn’t figure to play there in pro ball. The popular
opinion is to stick Moncada at third base, but some scouts said not to rule
out second base just yet and others suggested letting his speed play in
center field, which would also minimize the defensive pressure. Opinion is
split enough on his future defensive home that it likely won’t be settled
before he signs, clubs will differ on their plans for where to put him and
the question likely won’t be settled for another year or two.
An Interesting Set of Circumstances
In last month’s article I detailed the odd situation that Moncada finds
himself in due to the CBA’s two-year-old rules about international bonus
pools. Due to his age and lack of professional experience, Moncada is
subject to these pools, unlike free-and-clear free agents from Cuba such as
Jose Abreu, Rusney Castillo and current free agent Yasmany Tomas. This means
that Moncada can only sign for a signing bonus and can’t sign a big league
contract. These bonus pools range from roughly $2 million to $5 million,
ordered the same as the raw order for the 2015 MLB Draft, and any dollar
spent over 15% above the pool amount has a dollar-for-dollar penalty, plus it
triggers a two-year freeze on international signings over $300,000.
Scouts think Moncada, despite needing a year or two in the minors, is a
superior talent to Abreu, Castillo and Tomas. Abreu got 6 years, $68 million,
which looks like a bargain a year later. Castillo, considered a notch lower
than Abreu, got 7 years, $72.5 million a few months ago. Tomas, also an
inferior talent to Abreu, is expected to get somewhere between $70-$100
million. So, if Moncada were a free-and-clear free agent, he would be
expected to get over $100 million, probably on a 7-9 year deal, given his
youth.
This is where things get interesting. With the draft essentially having hard
caps on spending and Cuban/Japanese free agents getting essentially retail
values at this point, the only place to invest as much as you want on young
players with a positive ROI is in the international bonus pools. Because of
personal preferences, bureaucracy in shifting huge amounts of budgetary space
within baseball operations and distance to the big leagues, not all teams are
acting completely rationally in this regard.
The difference with Moncada is that he isn’t a 16-year-old with little game
experience that won’t play in America for a few years. He’s a proven game
performer with huge tools that could be in the big leagues in a year or two.
Moncada is the guy everyone can agree on is worth going over your pool, even
the teams that trade away their international pool space or don’t bother to
spend it all.
The Yankees recognized this lack of rational action and spent a
record-smashing ~$30 million on bonuses and penalties last year, while the
Red Sox, Rays and Angels also went over their pools (to a lesser degree), but
still got the maximum punishment. These teams had to pay the tax for
exceeding their spending limits, and they also can’t sign a prospect for
more than $300,000 for the next two years, starting July 2nd, 2015. That same
day, the Rangers and Cubs will be coming off of their penalties for going
over their pool two years ago, when the penalty was only a one-year freeze on
signings over $250,000. These years of aggressive signings, punctuated by
the Yankees’ huge outlay this year, are expected to bring on an
international draft (read: a version of hard caps on international spending)
at some point, but MLB isn’t tipping their hand and most expect that to take
a few years before it goes into effect.
An Intense Bidding War?
So, we have clubs flush with cash desperately searching for a way to spend it
on impact young talent, and we have a player that basically every scout on
Earth can agree is worth an enormous amount of money — even if it’s all
up-front — to buy his six big league controlled years. Moncada’s timetable
for being unblocked by OFAC and cleared by MLB to sign as a free agent will
likely come at some point in the first half of 2015, though this varies from
player to player. His agent will clearly want this to happen, because it
allows him to market his player to every team in baseball.
If he’s a free agent before July 2nd, 2015 that means the Yankees and Red
Sox are in play and have a ticking clock on when they have to give Moncada a
bid worth accepting. If the Cubs, Rangers or another club that would rather
this expense go in their 2015 international bonus pool allotment throw out
some agreeable terms, Moncada can wait until July 2nd to sign that deal.
There are already rumors the Cubs in particular are looking to blow way past
their bonus pool again in 2015, so it would be great luck for them to get a
chance at another Jorge Soler-type Cuban talent in their one-year spree that
would come with two years of penalties and a big tax bill.
The teams that stood out most to scouts at the showcase for having a big
group in attendance were the Red Sox, Cubs and Yankees, to the surprise of no
one. Slightly surprising, given their lower budget approach in the
international realm, is the Braves, who had a number of heavy hitters at the
showcase. Perhaps that shouldn’t be as surprising, though, as the Braves’
reshuffling of their front office this summer is clearly geared to
old-school, aggressive scouting and development that was the foundation of
their dynasty in the 1990s.
It’s too early to rule teams out or name a leader as teams are still forming
their strategies and hoping to get additional looks at Moncada before they
decide how much they’re willing to spend. I said a month ago that a $50
million bonus (which would include a $45+ million penalty) is the most you
could justify, with a projected price more reasonably in the $30-40 million
area, which multiple executives have said in recent weeks is where they think
this will end up.
For reference, the biggest draft/international bonus of all time is $8
million (Gerrit Cole) and the biggest guarantee (via a major league contract,
back when those were legal) is $15.1 million (Stephen Strasburg). Given the
huge amount of money in baseball, the ticking clock elements for multiple big
market clubs and the paucity of free market impact talent, it wouldn’t shock
me if things end up higher than the expected $30-40 million target, but there
’s still more that teams need to learn about Moncada before they can make
that kind of commitment.
現在正夯的古巴大物，因為資料很少所以除了球探們以外，很多人都對
這位據說又是一位五拍子好手感到神秘
這篇文章有對他做了一些介紹
由於現在是四點半，本來想翻的，但有點累想先睡覺XDD
有沒有大大要幫忙翻的?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HrJlss-jac
這影片大都是守備和速度的展現
目前還有另一隻大魚Yasamy Tomas，但普遍認為Moncada上限更高!
總之又是一陣搶人大戰了
感謝棒球之神創造古巴這個國家(?)