原文出自：http://0rz.tw/e24MR
Cooperstown Calling Contemporary Managers?
by Chris Jaffe
September 29, 2008
古柏鎮的呼喚：當代教頭
As readers to my columns here at THT may have noted, there are some topics in
which I take a considerable interest. One is the Hall of Fame, a topic of
numerous columns. Another is managers. Aside from some columns at THT, I have
a deal with McFarland Publishers to write a book on managers (rough draft
completed, final copy due on April Fool's Day).
我THT專欄的讀者可能會注意到：我對某些主題特別感興趣。其中之一是名人堂，
也是許多專欄的主題。另外還有總教練。除了THT的一些專欄，我也跟麥法蘭出版社簽
約要寫本關於總教練的書。(大略的草稿已完成，最後版本會在四月愚人節出書)
So it occurred to me, why not take two interests of mine and put them
together in the hopes of achieving some peanut-butter-plus-chocolate-like
epiphany? Specifically, let’s look at contemporary managers and try to
determine which ones have a good chance for eventual immortality and who
still needs to work on his resume. Some of the answers are rather obvious;
still there are points of interest for many.
我靈光一閃：為何不把我的兩個興趣像花生奶油加巧克力那樣結合在一起呢？
我們來分門別類地檢視這些當代教頭，試著決定誰有機會永垂不朽，以及誰需要砍
掉重練。有些答案很明顯，不過仍有許多有趣的觀點。
Let’s start with the ones most obviously Cooperstown-bound and work our way
down from there:
The following list might make it sound like there are a disproportionate
number of immortals amongst us, but that’s not the case. First, not all
hopefuls end up making the final cut.
我們從那些最可能進古柏鎮的教練開始。以下名單中不朽傳說的數量可能有些
不均衡，但事實不是這樣。首先，不是有希望的最終就會被選上。
Second, and more importantly, Hall of Fame managers are a bit more common
than you might expect. Sure, there are “only” 19 men inducted as managers,
but those 19 combined to manage over 64,000 games. And that doesn’t include
guys currently managing who will go in, or retired managers waiting for the
VC to pick them. In the 20th century, about 20 percent of all games were
managed by future Hall of Famers.
第二，也是更重要的，名人堂教練比你想的更常見。當然，只有19個人是以總
教練身分被選上，但他們總共執教了超過64000場比賽。 這些還不包括現今可能會
進名人堂的教頭，以及那些已經退休、等著VC選上他們的教頭們。20世紀中，20％
的比賽是由未來的名人堂教頭所執教。
The big three
These are, obviously, LaRussa, Cox and Torre. But you didn’t need me to tell
you that, did you?
三巨頭
很顯然地，是LaRussa、Cox、和Torre。應該不用我說吧？
Tony LaRussa: Our first no-brainer.
Tony LaRussa：無疑的第一名
As both the youngest and winningest member of the trio, LaRussa has a chance
to do something long thought impossible: pass John McGraw on the all-time
wins list. He’ll end the year about 300 wins shy. That’s four years of
managing. Please note he’s four years younger than Cox and Torre.
身為三人中最年輕以及最常勝的教頭，LaRussa有機會打破不可能的紀錄：生涯
勝場數超越John McGraw。今年結束他還少300勝，可能必須執教四年才能達到。請
注意他還比Cox和Torre年輕四歲。
(譯註：LaRussa執教生涯2460勝，John McGraw2763勝)
His secret, aside from being really good at what he does, is that he’s
always managing somewhere. Since filling out his first MLB lineup in August
1979, he’s been on the job somewhere the entire time, save for a
two-and-a-half-week stretch in the summer of 1986. Only Connie Mack and
McGraw can claim such perpetual employment in this topsy-turvy occupation.
他的秘訣：除了本職學能一級棒之外，他總是保持執教生涯。自從1979年8月填
了第一張MLB攻守名單後，他總是能在某個地方找到工作。除了1986年的夏天，他花
了兩個半禮拜伸了個懶腰。在這個亂七八糟的行業裡，只有Connie Mack和McGraw能
維持這樣不間斷的出席率。
Oh yeah—he also has a dozen postseason appearances, claimed five pennants,
and won a pair of World Series titles. Those titles came with two different
franchises. Only three other men—Bucky Harris, Bill McKechnie, and Sparky
Anderson—have won it all with multiple franchises. All are in Cooperstown.
是的，他也有成打的季後賽經驗。五次拿下聯盟冠軍，更有兩枚世界大賽冠軍
戒。這兩次冠軍是在不同的球隊中所拿到。只有三個人在不同的球隊中拿到冠軍：
Bucky Harris、Bill McKechnie、和Sparky Anderson，而他們都進了名人堂。
連結：LaRussa的生涯紀錄 http://0rz.tw/ed4Sd
Bobby Cox
Bobby Cox: Cox's .557 career win-loss record is the best among the Big Three.
His teams have made the postseason in a majority of his seasons. That’s
pretty impressive for someone who lasts 10 years on the job, let alone 25+.
Even with Atlanta’s October disappointments, he still has one world
championship and five pennants.
Cox的.557生涯勝率是三巨頭中最好的。他的球隊也是季後賽中的常勝軍(譯註：
亞特蘭大勇士隊1991-2005)。執教10年就夠讓人印象深刻，更不用說25年。就算亞特
蘭大的十月常令人失望，他仍贏得過一次世界大賽冠軍，與五次聯盟冠軍。
He has 14 consecutive postseason appearances, and he likely would've had 15.
(The Braves were on target for the wild card in 1994.) Sure, it's easier to
make the playoffs now than ever before, but how many managers have even had
15 straight winning seasons? Only Cox, Sparky Anderson, Joe McCarthy, Earl
Weaver and Al Lopez. Obviously, all are in Cooperstown. Cox's worst winning
percentage in that stretch was .543—something only McCarthy can top (though
Weaver ties).
他有14次挺進季後賽，應該說是連續15次。(勇士隊1994是以外卡資格進季後)
當然，現在要進季後賽比以前容易了，但有幾個教頭能擁有15個連續勝利的球季？
只有Cox、Sparky Anderson、Joe McCarthy、Earl Weaver與Al Lopez。 很顯然，
他們都進了古柏鎮。Cox在這幾年中最糟的勝率是.543，只有McCarthy勝過他。
(Weaver跟他平手)
連結：Cox的生涯紀錄http://0rz.tw/064Qk
Joe Torre：九頭驢
Joe Torre: To date, only three men in baseball history have managed in five
different decades: Connie Mack, John McGraw and Leo Durocher. The current
trio has a chance to double total, should they all stick around another two
years. They may not as they are all getting up there in years, but it’s
amazing such a doubling might even be possible.
以時間來看，棒球歷史中只有三個人曾在五個不同的十年中執教(80年代、90年代
這樣算一個十年)：Connie Mack、John McGraw、與Leo Durocher。如果三巨頭都再撐
兩年，將可以讓這個數字加倍。 雖然他們都上了年紀，但能讓這數字加倍依舊讓人驚
奇。
What’s more impressive, there’s no one else out there who looks to be in
position to join the five-decade club. To join, you need three things going
for you. First, you have to be young when you start managing. LaRussa, Cox,
and Torre were all in their mid-30s when they began.
更令人印象深刻的，是除了這三個老頭之外，沒人有機會可以加入"五個十年"
俱樂部。想加入的話，必須有三個條件：第一，你必須從年輕時就開始當教頭。像
LaRussa、Cox、和Torre都是在30幾歲就當總教練了。
Second—and most obviously—you have to last a long time. Third, you have to
start your career at the end of a decade. That’s the case for everyone
except Mack, and he’s a special case, given that he was part owner of the A’
s.
第二：顯然地，你要能撐很久。第三：你必須從一個十年的尾端開始職業生涯。
每個人都是如此，只有Mack是個特例，他也是運動家隊的擁有者之一。
That combo doesn’t happen for many others. There are only two managers who
began in the 1980s still out there: Lou Piniella and Jim Leyland. Can you
really see either of them hanging around until 2020? Piniella has already
said this is the last job he’ll ever have.
這種組合可不是隨便出現的。只有兩個80年代開始生涯的教頭還有機會：Lou
Piniella與Jim Leyland。但你還能在2020年看到他們其中之一嗎？Piniella已經
說了這會是他的最後一個工作。
Dusty Baker would have to manage until he’s 81, as would Mike Scioscia. Only
Connie Mack has managed at that age. Aside from him, baseball's oldest
manager was Casey Stengel, at age 75. Ron Gardenhire would have to last to
age 82. Cito Gaston and Ozzie Guillen have to make it to age 76. Bruce Bochy
has to “only” last 75, but I don’t see him having the stature to last as
long as Stengel.
Dusty Baker必須持續執教到81歲，Mike Scioscia也是。只有Connie Mack曾經
執教到這麼老。除了他之外，棒球界最老的總教練是Casey Stengel，撐到了75歲。
Ron Gardenhire必須撐到81歲，Cito Gaston和Ozzie Guillen則必須撐到76歲。Bru-
ce Bochy "只要" 執教到75歲就夠了，但我不覺得他的身體能讓他撐得像Stengel一
樣久。
The only man it’s feasible for is Terry Francona. He was hired at age 38 in
1997. He’ll be 71 in 2030. If he doesn’t get it, we’re stuck waiting to
see if recent hires like Manny Acta and Joe Girardi can make it. Enjoy seeing
if any of the Big Three make it to 2010—that might be the last time in your
lifetime anyone manages in five decades.
唯一可能的人選是Terry Francona。他1997年38歲的時候被聘請，2030年時他將
活到71歲。如果他無法達成，我們就只能期待最近新任的教頭：像Manny Acta和 Joe
Girardi。拭目以待2010年三巨頭的表現吧！這可能是你一生最後一次看到"五個十年"
俱樂部的老教頭了。
連結：Torre的生涯紀錄http://0rz.tw/801by
四小龍
The Little Four
Some others have pretty good cases, even though they’re all missing a bit.
有些人表現也粉不錯，雖然都差了那麼一點。
Jim Leyland
Jim Leyland: He is on the borderline, but probably on the wrong side of the
border. He’s got a bunch of impressive credentials, but there’s always a “
but” somewhere in them.
他是站在邊緣的男人，但似乎站錯邊了。他有一籮筐令人印象深刻的豐功偉業，
但其中總是有瑕疵在裡面。
He won pennants with two teams: Florida and Detroit. He just missed winning a
pennant with a third squad, the Pirates. That would have ensured
enshrinement, but it was not to be. He won three straight division titles
with Pittsburgh, but they never got over the hump.
他在兩個球隊拿過聯盟冠軍：佛羅里達和底特律。第三個球隊也只差一點：匹茲
堡海盜。乍看之下冠軍只是囊中物，但其實不是這麼回事。他曾率領海盜隊連續三季
拿下分區冠軍，但始終無法翻越最後的障礙。
He won it all in Florida, but when people think of that team they recall the
dismantling more than the championship. If they don’t think of the
dismantling, they recollect the free agency bonanza general manager Dave
Dombrowski harvested. Leyland seems incidental to his most prestigious
accomplishment in popular memory.
他在佛羅里達大獲全勝(1997年WS)。但當人們提起馬大魚時，球隊重組比冠軍更
令人有印象。就算不想到重組，他們只會想起GM Dave Dombrowski在FA市場的豐收。
Leyland在大眾的記憶中，最光輝燦爛的一年似乎也只是個旁觀者。
Detroit won a pennant, but they lost the Series to a far worse team. Then
they proceeded to underachieve in subsequent seasons. Also, this was the
second straight time Leyland worked with Dombrowski. Cooperstown might focus
more on the general manager than the manager.
底特律老虎曾拿下聯盟冠軍，卻在世界大賽敗給遠遜於它的球隊(聖路易紅雀)。
在接下來的球季中，他們也無法發揮該有的實力。 而且，這是Leyland第二次與Dom-
browski合作。古柏鎮可能會聚焦在這位GM，而不是總教頭。
If Pittsburgh had won a pennant, or if Detroit had won the 2006 Series, or if
he hadn’t been overshadowed in Florida, Leyland would have an excellent
shot. Instead, he runs the risk of being a managerial Jim Kaat—impressive
career accomplishments without the necessary “wow!” factor.
如果海盜隊得過聯盟冠軍，或老虎隊拿下2006年世界大賽，或在馬林魚的時候他
的光芒沒有被掩蓋，Leyland就達成了完美一擊。 事實上，他成了教練版的Jim Kaat
－令人印象深刻的生涯成就，卻缺少了令人大喊"Wow！"的要素。
His two pennants would tie him for the fewest of any Cooperstown immortal. He
’s 26th in career wins, but only one post-1900 Hall of Famer ranks lower
than that. (All three pre-1900 guys—Ned Hanlon, Frank Selee, and Harry Wright
—are lower but their schedule was shorter.)
他的兩次聯盟冠軍，讓他勉強達到成為古柏鎮不朽傳奇的標準。他的生涯勝場排
名26，但1900之後只有一位名人堂教頭比他還低(1900之前有三位：Ned Hanlon、Fra-
nk Selee、和Harry Wright，不過他們的執教生涯較短。)
He has more wins than 2008 Cooperstown inductee Billy Southworth, but
Southworth had to wait almost 60 years for induction. More importantly, he
had one of the best winning percentages of all time. Currently, Leyland has a
losing record for his career. That kills him. Only managers with really long
careers, like Mack and Harris, get in with losing records.
他的勝場數比2008年進古柏鎮的Billy Southworth還多，但Southworth等了幾乎
60年。更重要的，是Southworth有著有史以來最高的生涯勝率(.597)。 現在Leyland
幾乎一敗塗地，這會毀了他。只有生涯很長的總教練，像Mack和Harris，帶著曾經慘
敗的紀錄進名人堂。
連結：Leyland的生涯紀錄http://0rz.tw/f14P1
Lou Piniella
Lou Piniella: Want to know if he’ll make it to Cooperstown? Watch what
happens this October. If the Cubs win the pennant, he’s a lock. If they don’
t, he has no chance. He’s the anti-Leyland. Whereas the current Tiger
skipper has a series of “buts” dragging down his case, Piniella has a
series of “buts” uplifting his.
想知道他是否進的了名人堂嗎？看看今年十月的戰況吧！如果小熊隊贏得聯盟冠
軍，他就穩了。如果小熊隊失敗，他也沒機會。他剛好和Leyland相反。 如果說現任
的老虎教頭是被一連串的"but"拖垮，Piniella就是被一連串的"but"捧上了天。
Piniella has only won one world title—in fact he only has one pennant—but
that was one of the greatest upsets in sports history. Those 1990 Reds were
supposed to be doomed against the mighty A’s juggernaut.
Piniella只贏過一次世界大賽冠軍，事實上也是他唯一一次聯盟冠軍。但那是運
動史上一次偉大的翻盤！1990年的紅人隊，對上當時強大的運動家，應該被理所當然
地碾過去才對。
He never took the Mariners to the postseason, but they did win 116 wins in a
season for him once. Tying the single-season win record is a big mark for
him, even when you factor in their postseason loss in the ALCS. Besides, the
Mariners never had a winning season before he arrived. He took them to the
postseason four times, still their only trips in franchise history.
他從未帶領水手隊贏得季後賽，但他們的確曾為他拿了116勝。單季勝場的紀錄是
他的一大賣點，就算你只注意他們在美聯冠軍賽的慘敗也一樣。 更何況，水手隊在他
來之前根本沒有勝利的球季。 是Piniella帶領他們四度闖進季後賽，也是他們隊史中
僅有的季後賽之旅。
If Piniella takes the Cubs to the promised land, that continues the theme.
Sure others have won pennants with multiple teams without gaining
enshrinement as managers—Alvin Dark, Yogi Berra, Pat Moran—but this wouldn’
t just be a second team. It’s the doomed, damned and deplorable Cubs.
如果Piniella帶領小熊隊進入應許之地，傳奇就將延續。當然也有人帶領不同的
球隊拿下聯盟冠軍－像Alvin Dark、Yogi Berra、Pat Moran...... 但這顯然有很大
的不同。這可是滿目瘡痍、被詛咒的悲慘小熊隊啊！
A title, a pennant, and some playoff appearances normally don’t make
Cooperstown call, but a huge upset, 116 wins, and a breaker of Western
civilization's oldest curse combined would.
WS、聯盟冠軍、和一些季後賽表現不能讓他進古柏鎮。但重大的翻盤、116勝、
以及西方世界古老詛咒的打破者，絕對辦得到！
連結：Piniella的生涯紀錄http://0rz.tw/f74Lq
Dusty Baker
Dusty Baker: Stop and think how good his case looked heading into the eighth
inning of Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS. Baker was on the verge of capturing his
second straight NL pennant. These performances came with different teams,
highlighting the case for his admirers. He had a terrific career win-loss
record and had already won three Manager of the Year Awards.
討論Baker的好之前，停止去想2003年國聯冠軍賽Game 6的第八局發生啥事。
(譯註：馬林魚海灌了小熊隊8分) Baker只差一點就連續拿下兩屆國聯冠軍。這兩
年他還待在不同隊，難怪會如此受到矚目了。 他有驚人的生涯勝敗紀錄，而且已
經拿了三座年度總教練獎。
He’d only been on the job a little over a decade, but that’s as promising a
start as you can have. Winning pennants with two teams is nice, but as noted
above, a Cubs pennant is an extra special feather to have in a manager’s
cap. It would be doubly special to earn in your first year there, as Baker
threatened to do in 2003.
他只當了十幾年教頭，但這是一個大好前途的開始。在不同的兩支球隊贏得
聯盟冠軍很讚，而且是小熊隊，簡直像在教練頭上插一根最特別的羽毛。如果在
你來到球隊的第一年得到，更是雙倍的驚喜，可惜Baker在2003年只留下殘念。
Now stop and think where his case stands today. The Cubs, of course, blew
that game and didn’t win the pennant. Each year the team did worse than the
year before. Now he’s in Cincinnati, and the team’s floundering along with
him just like it did without him. His reputation has gone from first-rate to
journeyman, and he only has one pennant. And no one cares about Manager of
the Year Awards.
停下來想想他到底有何地位。小熊隊，如你所知，搞砸了那場比賽而且最終沒
贏得國聯冠軍。這支球隊一直在每下愈況。現在他來到辛辛那提紅人，跟他還沒來
之前一樣，也是在困境中掙扎。他的評價從第一變成流浪教頭，而且他只有一個聯
盟冠軍。根本沒人鳥年度總教練獎。
He needs something special to get back on track. Leyland may already have
enough credentials, and Piniella just needs one good October, but Baker needs
something a bit more sustained than that. Otherwise he’ll join Pat Moran and
Charlie Grimm in the leftover pile.
他需要一些特別的來重新上軌道。Leyland已經有足夠的戰績，Piniella只需要
一個完美的十月，但Baker還差得遠了。不然他也只能加入Pat Moran和Charlie Gri-
mm的遺珠集團了。
連結：Baker的生涯紀錄http://0rz.tw/854Mk
Terry Francona
Terry Francona: He has two world titles, which is a big help on any manager’
s resume. However, he’s as invisible as a manager can be with two world
titles.
他有兩個世界大賽冠軍，對任何教頭而言都是很大的幫助。然而，他在這兩個
冠軍中幾乎是無形的。
The Red Sox's success has primarily been seen as a testament to the team’s
money, Theo Epstein’s decisions, and the character of veterans like Curt
Schilling. I don’t hear people speaking ill of Francona, but he gets lost in
the shuffle, a cog in Kid Theo’s machine. It doesn’t help him that he had
his share of critics in his only other job, in Philly.
紅襪的成功主要被視為球隊投資的兌現。Theo Epstein的決策，以及老將的發
揮都很有幫助，像Curt Schilling。我沒聽過有人講Francona的壞話，但他在改組
中迷失了，只是屬於Theo的機器中的一個齒輪。他在費城人的執教經驗備受批評，
也同樣幫不了他。
Despite that, he’s a lot closer than one might think. If the Red Sox win a
third world title, he suddenly has a very good chance to go in. Here are the
people who have won at least three World Series titles: John McGraw, Connie
Mack, Miller Huggins, Joe McCarthy, Casey Stengel and Walter Alston. All are
immortals.
即使如此，他還是比大家想的更接近名人堂。如果紅襪拿下第三次世界大賽冠
軍，他就很有機會了。這些是至少拿了三次世界大賽冠軍的教頭：John McGraw、
Connie Mack、Miller Huggins、Joe McCarthy、Casey Stengel、Walter Alston。
全都是不朽的傳奇人物。
If he doesn’t win three, he’s stuck with the Danny Murtaughs and Ralph
Houks. Not bad managers, but not in that most exclusive of clubs. If he gets
a third, not only will he have a nice “wow” factor on his resume, but he’
ll almost certainly be able to last a long time on the job with one team or
another. As already noted, he was very young when he started, so he can rack
up some impressive career wins to go with those titles.
Win, and he’s in.
如果他沒拿冠軍，他就得跟Danny Murtaughs和Ralgh Houks為伍。不錯的教頭，
但並不是最獨一無二的。如果他拿冠軍，不只有了完美的"wow"要素，而且他就能繼
續延長職業生涯。 像之前提到的，他開始執教時非常年輕，還能累積一些令人印象
深刻的勝利。
獲勝吧，然後進名人堂！
連結：Francona的生涯紀錄http://0rz.tw/814Ph
還太嫩了
Too soon to tell
Mike Scioscia
Mike Scioscia: So far, so good. He already has a title, and he’s gearing up
for his fifth playoff appearance in nine years. Also, he’s always been given
a lot of credit for the Angels’ success over the years. He’ll need to win
at least one more pennant, but he’s off to the best start of everyone who
began the job this millennium.
目前為止還不錯。他已經拿過WS，而且正為了九年來第五次進季後賽加足馬力。
天使隊這幾年的成功為他加分不少。他至少需要再拿下一個聯盟冠軍，但他是21世紀
開始執教生涯的人中最棒的。
Ron Gardenhire
Ron Gardenhire: I think he’s a great manager, but right now his resume looks
a little thin. As of this writing (Saturday), he's angling for his fifth
postseason appearance, but Minnesota’s record in the playoffs has been
horrible. They’ve lost in the ALDS thrice and were easily dismissed in their
only trip to the ALCS. The general baseball public doesn’t pay much
attention to him, also hurting his odds.
我想他是個不錯的教頭，但他現在的資歷看起來有點薄弱。周六寫這篇文章時，
他正渴求著第五次季後賽，但明尼蘇達雙城季後賽的紀錄簡直糟透了。他們三度錯失
美聯冠軍賽，唯一打進冠軍賽的一次卻被輕易橫掃。現今棒球界並沒有給他太多注目
，這也剝奪了他的優勢。
It’s still early in his career, so he has plenty of time to garner the big
accomplishments, but there is a danger in repeated October disappointments.
Windows don’t remain open forever, and a lack of postseason glory is fatal
to a Cooperstown candidacy. Not only do all of the Hall of Fame managers have
multiple pennants, but you need something special to put you over if you have
only two.
他的職業生涯剛起步，還有許多時間獲取更大的成就。但持續令人失望的十月
無疑是一大危機。門戶並不總是敞開，缺少季後賽的光環更是名人堂候選人的致命
傷。不僅所有名人堂教頭都有好幾個聯盟冠軍，而且你需要一些特殊表現來讓你過
關。
Ozzie Guillen
Ozzie Guillen: Way too early to tell. He’s won it all, his teams
consistently exceed expectation, and he gets lots of credit for that.
提到他還太早。他曾大獲全勝，他的球隊也持續超越大家的期待，這替他加了
不少分數。
It’s only five years though. A lot of men, such as Charlie Dressen, have
looked great for a few years. Guillen needs to keep it up. The danger I see
for him is that he might burn out if he gets caught with an under-talented
squad for a few years in a row. That’s just my own hunch. He’s done a great
job so far.
僅僅才五年。有些教頭像Charlie Dressen，一開始看起來也是不錯。Guillen
必須把表現維持在高檔。我覺得他的危機，在於擁有一支未充分發揮天分的球隊。
這只是我的猜測，他目前的表現好極了。
其它
Others
Cito Gaston
Cito Gaston: He’ll turn 65 next year. At best he’ll only have a little more
than 1,100 wins by his 70th birthday. Like Francona, he needs a third title,
but his odds are much worse. It doesn’t look good.
他明年就65歲了。在他的70歲生日時，最好的情況是有1100場出頭的勝場。就像
Francona，他需要第三次世界大賽冠軍。但他的機會小多了，看起來很不妙。
Bruce Bochy
Bruce Bochy: He’s a long shot, but not quite a hopeless case. Bochy has over
1,000 wins and a pennant and is only in his early 50s. If he can last another
10 years in the game with one team or another and latch onto a solid
franchise, his odds suddenly look much better. He’d have around 2,000 wins
(everyone over 1,650 is either currently working or in Cooperstown), and
could have multiple pennants.
他的生涯很長，但還不至於絕望。Bochy有超過1000勝，與一個聯盟冠軍，而且
才50出頭而已。如果他能再撐十年，並有穩定的表現，他的機會就高多了。 他必須
有2000勝左右(超過1650勝的人都在古柏鎮裡，或呼聲很高)，而且多幾個聯盟冠軍。
If he lasts a ways longer and wins a World Series, he suddenly has a better
case than Jim Leyland currently has. Then again, do you realize how many guys
you can say that about? Yeah, if Jimmy Dykes had been hired by the Dodgers or
Yankees instead of the Philadelphia A's or Baltimore Orioles, maybe he
could've gotten in. When you need everything to break perfectly, you're a
damn big long shot.
如果他撐下去甚至贏得世界大賽冠軍，他就比Jim Leyland有更好的機會。但你
知道有多少人也有同樣的情況嗎？如果Jimmy Dykes是被道奇或洋基雇用，而不是費
城人或巴爾的摩金鶯，也許他早進名人堂了。 當需要一切完美配合時，那只是不切
實際的遠景罷了。
Eric Wedge
Eric Wedge: This is a real screwball one, but his odds are better than you
think (though still not good).
他是個怪胎，但他的機會比你想得要高(雖然還是很糟)。
Here’s the key point on his favor: he was barely 35 years old when he
started managing the Indians, making him the youngest person to fill out the
lineup card in the last 25 years. He has nearly 500 wins, but he’s still
younger today than Mike Scioscia was upon his hiring as Angels manager.
這是他的關鍵優勢：當他開始執教印地安人隊時，只有35歲。可能是25年來，
填攻守名單的教頭中最年輕的。他有將近500勝，而且比Mike Scioscia執教天使隊
時還年輕。
If he’s respected enough to last a while, he’ll pick up some very
impressive career counting stats. If he lands some playoff teams in the
process, he’ll have a legitimate Hall of Fame case.
如果他能持續被尊重，他會得到一些不錯的生涯數據。如果他能帶領球隊進
季後賽，進名人堂的合理性就大增了。
I don’t see it happened, though. I don’t follow the Indians too closely,
but that team usually does a little worse than expectations, which I take as
a knock on the manager. An early start puts him in a good position, but he’s
got to make the most of his opportunities. To date, he’s failed badly at
that.
雖然目前看不出跡象。我並未相當注意印地安人，但這球隊似乎總是比期待
中糟一點，我覺得這也是給總教練的一記重擊。很早出發是他的優勢，但他必須
更加把握每一次機會。現在他做得滿失敗的。
As for the rest of the game's managers, they either have so little experience
or such bad odds it isn't worth discussing their chances.
至於其他的教頭，不是經驗不足，就是機會小到實在不值得討論。