http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/9/2/606066/scott-kazmir-examined
Scott Kazmir Examined
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
檢察一下Scott Kazmir
Something that has flown under the radar for the Rays is the performance of
Scott Kazmir. The team is winning despite Kazmir's tRA sitting at 3.99, the
highest since 2005. Is there a reason for the young ace's regression, or is
it simply a hiccup in his promising career?
光芒隊有一個浮上檯面的警訊：Scott Kazmir的表現。儘管Kazmir的tRA穩坐3.99
，自2005年來最高，球隊也一直贏球。 這位年輕王牌逐漸退化了嗎，或只是在他亮麗
的生涯中跌了一跤？
Kazmir began this season on the disabled list with a left elbow strain. He
was removed on May 4th and made his first start in Boston going four innings
and allowing three earned runs along with three walks. Kazmir would go on a
run over his next 11 starts pitching 68 innings, allowing 47 hits, 25 walks,
6 homeruns, and striking 70 outs while going 7-2 and earning a spot on the
all-star team. In 10 starts since his relief appearance in the midsummer
classic Kazmir has went 54 innings, allowed 47 hits, 27 walks, 8 homeruns,
and struck out 65.
Kazmir本季從DL名單出發：因為左手肘扭傷。他在5月4日被移出傷兵名單，並在
波士頓投了第一場先發。4局就失了三分自責分，還附帶三個保送。 接下來的11場先
發，總共投了68局，被打47支安打、6支全壘打，投出25次保送、70次三振。戰績7勝
2敗，並在明星賽中眾所矚目。 自明星賽中繼登場後的10場先發，Kazmir投了54局，
被打47支安打、8支全壘打，投出27次保送、65次三振。
Most casual fans are going to see Kazmir's 10-6 record, 3.13 ERA, and 1.227
WHIP and assume Kazmir is having the best season of his career, and he is,
for those statistics. However as we know those numbers don't tell the whole
or even half of the story. Kazmir's strikeout per nine rates is down from
10.41 to 9.97 and his walk rate is up from 3.88 to 3.92. He's giving up more
line drives and flyballs than ever and as a result more homeruns (one per
nine).
大部分的球迷看著Kazmir10勝6敗的戰績，3.13ERA，與1.227的WHIP，都認為他
投出了生涯代表作。的確如此，如果只看這些數據的話。 但我們都知道這些數字只
揭露了不到一半的真相。 Kazmir的K/9比率從10.41跌到9.97，BB/9比率則從3.88攀
升至3.92。比起從前，他也被敲出了更多飛球與強勁平飛球，甚至更多全壘打(每九
局一支)。
Kazmir的武器
┌───┬────┬────┬───┬───┬────┬────┬────┐
│ 球種 │ X位移 │ Z位移 │ 初速 │投球數│ 百分比 │ 對右打 │ 對左打 │
│ │ (英吋)│ (英吋)│ (MPH)│ │ │ │ │
├───┼────┼────┼───┼───┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 速球 │ 5.92 │ 10.48 │ 92.68│ 1252 │ 76.81% │ 77.4% │ 74.16% │
├───┼────┼────┼───┼───┼────┼────┼────┤
│ 滑球 │ －0.4 │ 3.94 │ 83.07│ 182 │ 11.17% │ 7.88% │ 25.84% │
├───┼────┼────┼───┼───┼────┼────┼────┤
│變速球│ 7.46 │ 4.1 │ 79.43│ 196 │ 12.02% │ 14.71% │ 0% │
└───┴────┴────┴───┴───┴────┴────┴────┘
Stuff：速球是主要的武器，滑球 v.s 左打，變速球 v.s. 右打
To see if there was a noticeable change I went to the PitchF/x data. Kazmir
is throwing his fastball at 92.68 (92.91 last year) about 77% of the time
(69% last season) and throwing his slider and change less and slower (83 and
79 at about 11 and 12 percents respectively.) For actual break measurements,
Kazmir's slider is breaking in to righties slightly more but not breaking
down quite as much, making it more of a cutter and less of a slider, which
could help to explain his increase in foul percentage. Kazmir's change is
also breaking inside (to lefties) less but breaking down quite a bit more 4.1
this year compared to 5.75 last season.
我去查了PitchF/x的資料，看有沒有值得注意的改變。Kazmir在77%的投球中，催出
92.68mph的速球(去年92.91mph)。不過他的滑球和變速球投得較少，球速也變慢。 (11%
是83mph的滑球，12%是79mph的變速球)。 在實際的測量中，Kazmir的滑球往右打者的水
平變化稍微多了一點，但往下的垂直變化卻不如以往，變成一顆有Cutter味道的滑球。
這或許可以解釋為何他被打界外球的比率提高了。 Kazmir的變速球往左打者內側鑽的變
化減少了，往下的變化卻增加(今年垂直位移4.1，去年5.75)。
Kazmir is throwing the same amount of strikes as he did in prior seasons, and
more first pitch strikes, yet his average pitch total per plate appearance is
up to 4.3 some bit higher than 4.06 last season. Kazmir is getting a few more
strikes swinging and less strikes looking. Hitters are swinging at 50% of
Kazmir's pitches and 78% of his strikes (both increases by 2% over last
season) and making contact 74% of the time, which is again slightly up from
last season. Last season post-all star break Kazmir had an amazing run and
average nearly 15 swinging strikes and seven groundballs over his last 15
starts. Post all-star break this season Kazmir is averaging 12 swinging
strikes and five groundballs.
Kazmir仍然像上一季一樣投出許多好球，也更常搶下第一個好球數。對每一名打者
的平均用球量，卻從上一季的4.06，增加至今年的4.3。 Kazmir的好球更常被揮擊了，
打者站著看球的比例減少。對於Kazmir的投球，打者有50%做出揮擊，好球更有78%的被
揮擊率(這兩個數據都比上一季成長了2%)。被擊中率也些微提升至74%。 上一季明星賽
後，Kazmir有令人驚異的表現：最後15次先發中，平均每場15次揮空、7個滾地球。 今
年明星賽後，Kazmir每場只有12次揮空、5個滾地球。
It's probably not time to worry because Kazmir is still a good pitcher, but
adjustments will need to be made if the Pitchf/x data is indeed correct.
Kazmir has to bring his pitches per plate appearance down in order to become
more efficient, in nearly 2,300 pitches Kazmir has gotten through 126.3
innings, Roy Halladay worked through 159.3 innings on roughly the same amount.
我們或許還用不著擔心Kazmir這位好投手。但如果Pitchf/x的資料是對的，他可能
必須做一些調整。Kazmir必須降低他對每位打者的用球量，以達到節能減碳。2300次投
球中，Kazmir吃下了126.3局，但Roy Halladay卻能吃下159.3局！