http://0rz.tw/354LM
Comparing Carlos Zambrano to himself
by dixieflatline on Aug 29, 2008 8:35 AM PDT
大Ｚ跟自己比一比
During Carlos Zambrano's last start I found myself chatting online with a
Cubs fan in a large group of people and I made the comment that I was worried
about his strikeout rate dropping the last few years. He answered that it
was because Zambrano was throwing his sinker more. I wasn't so sure about
this. Zambrano throws three different fastballs and their movements are very
similar so differentiating between them real time is definitely not something
I could do. I also took a quite peak at his groundball percentage and it
literally hadn't changed in the past two years. Not that a ground ball
percentage of nearly 47 percent is bad, it actually is quite good, but it
hasn't changed in the last three years. In addition, he hadn't really been
lowering the number of pitches he was throwing per plate appearance (3.8 this
year 4.0 the previous two years). So why has his strikeout rate dropped from
8.9 per game in 2006 to 7.4 last year to 6.2 this year? Also why has his
walk rate dropped from 4.9 per game in 2006 to 4.3 last year to 3.3 this
year? If he really is throwing more sinkers early in the count then he
likely should be getting more groundballs and definitely should be throwing
fewer pitches per plate appearance. Let's try to make some sense of what is
going on here.
Carlos Zambrano上次先發時，我在網上跟一個小熊迷聊天，談到我擔心大Z的三振
率正逐年下降。小熊迷說：那是因為Zambrano現在投比較多Sinker。我對此感到存疑。
Zambrano會投三種不同的速球，而且有時位移非常相似，我實在無法準確地分辨出來。
我也看了一下他的滾地球比率，發現在過去2年沒什麼變化。 滾地球比率47%左右，事
實上已經很不錯了。另外，他對付每個打者所使用的球數也並未顯著下降（今年3.8，
前兩年4.0）所以究竟為何他的三振率從2006年的8.9K/G，去年的7.4K/G，一路下跌至
今年的6.2K/G？ 為何他的保送率也從2006年的4.9BB/G，去年的4.3BB/G，降至今年的
3.3BB/G？ 如果他真的投了比較多Sinker，滾地球應該會變多，而對每個打者使用的
球數應該會減少才對。我們來看看這到底是怎麼一回事……
Carlos Zambrano 的投球位移 2007
原圖：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/24341/Carlos_Zambrano.gif
簡易版：
垂 20┌──────────────────────── o Fastball
直 │ x Sinker
位 15├ o + Cutter
移 │ oo oo o+o+ = Slider
︵ 10├ o oooo++o + ++ + * Splitter
英 │ xooxooo+o+oo+++ ++ +=
吋 5├ xxo x** ox +++ +++ += == = │
︶ │ x xo*xo**x* +**+++++ *== * = │
0├ x x xooxo** * ++* +* == **== == * │
│ x x* ** * * =*= === = │
-5├ ** * * * = == │
│ * = │
-10├ │
│ │
-15├ │
│ │
-20└──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
水平位移（英吋）
Starting with his 2007 movement chart we can see the jumble of fastballs.
His four seam fastball is right in the middle which he throws at 94.5 MPH.
It also doesn't have the rise of regular four seamers checking in at a tick
under eight inches of vertical movement but a solid six inches of horizontal
movement. This is certainly due to his lowered release point which is
generally a tad lower than ¾. He is throwing this pitch 17 percent of the
time more to lefties than righties (21 percent to 13 percent).
從2007年的位移圖上，我們可以看到速球的交錯區。他的四縫線速球投到94.5mph
時，剛好在區域的中間。它並不像一般的四縫線有8英吋的垂直上升位移，但有6英吋
的水平位移。這是由於大Z較低的放球點所導致，他比3/4的投球姿勢還要稍微低一點。
他的投球中有17%是這種球路，而且對左打比較多（左打21%，右打13%）。
His sinker is a power sinker being thrown at 92 MPH and "rising" just under
five inches. Notice this pitch has more vertical movement than the classic
sinkerballers you think of like Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe. The reason for
the is likely the extra velocity Zambrano is getting with his sinker. Both
Webb and Lowe generally throw in the upper 80's so Zambrano is trading off
increased speed for increased movement. Also because of lower arm slot this
pitch really bores in to right handed batters as he generates just over eight
inches of vertical movement. He is throwing the sinker 26 percent of the time
slightly more often to righties than lefties (29 percent to 24 percent).
大Z的Sinker是強力Sinker，球速可以達到92mph，而且有5英吋以內的上升位移。
注意他的這個球種比傳統的伸卡球投手：Brandon Webb和Derek Lowe，有更多的垂直
位移。這是由於Zambrano的球速比較快所導致，Webb和Lowe的伸卡球只有將近90mph。
也因為出手點較低，這個球種常往右打者的內側鑽。他的投球中有26%是Sinker，對右
打稍微比較多（左打24%，右打29%）。
Zambrano also throws a cutter which gets almost no press. This pitch only
move two inches horizontally but almost seven inches vertically. He also
throws this pitch quite hard checking in at 91 MPH on average. Despite
basically nobody talking about it Zambrano threw this pitch the most of nay
of his fastballs at 33 percent of the time and equally often to lefties and
righties. That is very unusual as pitchers who do throw a cutter tend to
throw it more to an opposite handed batter as the ball rides in more than a
regular four seamer would.
Zambrano也會投Cutter。這個球種只有2英吋的水平位移，卻有接近7英吋的垂直
位移。他催Cutter的球速也一樣猛烈，均速可以達到91mph。 即使很少人討論這個球
種，它卻是Zambrano最常用的速球：佔投球比例的33%，而且對左打和右打都差不多。
一個投手對反方向打者投這麼多Cutter，是很反常的事情。可能是因為他的Cutter比
四縫線速球有更多的位移。
Zambrano also throws a slider and a splitter with most of the sliders against
righties and most of the splits to lefties like you would expect. He threw
the splitter 14 percent of the time in 2007 and the slider 10 percent of the
time. Despite a quite large difference in speed and movement between his
splitter and sinker Zambrano actually grips the two pitches very similarly.
Zambrano也投Slider跟Splitter。就如你所想的，Slider大多拿來對付右打者，而
Splitter則大多對付左打者。在2007年，他投了14%的Splitter，與10%的Slider。儘管
Splitter跟Slider的球速和位移都有很大的不同，Zambrano在這兩種球路的使用和掌握
上，其實是非常類似的。
Carlos Zambrano 的投球位移 2008
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/24344/Carlos_Zambrano.gif
The first thing that jumps out at me is how his sinker has slightly diverged
from his four seamer. His sinker now has more horizontal movement up to
nearly 9½ inches and it also is sinking about a half inch more. He still is
throwing this pitch at 92 MPH so that hasn't changed but with the added
movement this clearly is a better pitch than it was last year. As a result
he is throwing it more, nearly 38 percent of the time, which is a large
increase. So if that Cubs fan is reading, you are reading you were right,
more sinkers and better sinkers.
我的第一印象是：他的伸卡球已經和四縫線速球產生差異。他的Sinker現在有高達
9英吋的水平位移，而且多下沉了半英吋左右。他同樣能把這顆Sinker催到92mph，但有
了更多的位移後，這個球種很明顯地比去年強化了。理所當然地，他會想要多投一點。
大約佔38%的投球比例，真是增加了不少。 如果之前那個小熊迷在看這篇文章，我必須
說：你是對的，大Z的Sinker不論質量都上升了。
As a result, he is throwing his four seamer and his cutter less (11 percent
and 24 percent respectively). He also isn't getting the same velocity he was
with those pitches with his four seamer down one MPH and his cutter down half
a MPH. That is kind of strange that he would lose a little velocity with
those fastballs but keep the velocity on the sinker but that is what has
happened. Also, his splitter and slider have changed places with him
throwing his splitter 11 percent now and his slider 15 percent of the time.
當然，四縫線和卡特球的使用就相對的少了（4-seamer 11%，Cutter 24%）。這兩
個球種的球速也有所下降，四縫線下降了1mph，Cutter則下降了0.5mph。這真的很怪，
他能保持Sinker的球速，另外兩種速球卻有些微的失速。同時，他的Splitter和Slider
也對換了角色，現在Splitter減至11%，Slider卻增加為15%。
The other thing that kind of jumps out at you is how spread out his pitches
are now. In 2007 everything was kind of nice and tidy and bundled together
but in 2008 not only has his sinker spread away from his four seamer but his
slider has become a smear instead of a cluster. What is going on here is as
Zambrano adds or subtracts spin the slider breaks more, or less,
horizontally. Normally when I see a pitcher who throws a pitch that is
smeared out like that I question whether the pitcher is consciously doing
that or if that spread is just due to lack of repeatability. Here though I
think it is very clear that Zambrano is in control of this as he showed in
2007 that he can repeat his delivery and produce a nice compact cluster of
sliders. Assuming this is the case this likely is a real weapon for Zambrano
who can then throw the slider with little movement early in the count and
throw the slider again late in the count when looking for a swing and a miss.
If you look hard you can see similar spread in hit cutter and sinker as well
though the spread is less pronounced there.
你可能會有一個印象：他現在的投球位移分佈得更廣了。2007年，各球種完美整齊
地各自群聚在一起。但在2008年，除了伸卡從四縫線分離出來之外，滑球的分佈也更散
亂。這是因為Zambrano會藉著增減球的轉速，來增加或減少Slider的水平位移。通常我
看到這樣的投球分佈，總會懷疑投手究竟是故意這麼做，或只是控球力變差了？但我想
Zambrano很顯然地在控制之內，能像2007年那樣反覆投出完美而精準的滑球。假設這才
是大Z真正的武器，他能在搶好球數時先投位移較少的滑球，等球數領先，試圖誘使打
者揮棒落空，才把位移大的滑球投出來。你可以發現他的Cutter和Sinker也有類似的分
佈現象。
So that was very interesting but how does this help us answer our questions
we started with about the lowered strikeout and walk rate coupled with a tiny
change in pitches per plate appearance and no change in his groundball rate.
Well it is clear that Zambrano is using his sinker more but even still that
sinker isn't a beat the ball into the ground sinker so while he is still
getting solid ground ball numbers that is the reason the ground ball
percentage hasn't gone up even though the sinker percentage has.
這非常有趣，但能幫助我們回答問題嗎？大Z的三振和保送率都下降了，對每個打者
用球數有些微改變，但滾地球比率卻沒變。 很顯然地Zambrano投了更多的Sinker，但這
顆Sinker並非讓打者打成滾地球的Sinker。 所以就算Sinker的比率提高，滾地球也沒有
變的更多。
What about the decreased walk rate and strikeout rate with nearly the same
pitches per plate appearance? Well, in 2007 Zambrano was using his fastball
and his cutter a lot as his strikeout pitch. In fact, 54 percent of the time
he would throw either his fastball or cutter on 0-2 or 1-2. This year that
percentage is down to 40 percent. Now he is throwing his splitter or his
slider much more and if a batter lays off that pitch he Zambrano has to come
back and throw more pitches. I wonder if the decreased velocity on his
fastball and cutter are the issue here. High heat can be a very effective
strikeout pitch but it tends to be even more effective if you can throw it 95
MPH. Zambrano is throwing strike one more often this year than last so he is
getting in pitchers counts more often so he is walking less but then isn't
closing the deal so the strikeouts have suffered and the pitch counts really
haven't been impacted either.
那怎麼解釋三振率和保送率的下降呢？在2007年，Zambrano用他的四縫線和卡特球
來當三振的球種。2好0壞或2好1壞時，有54%的機會他會投這兩種速球。 但今年這個比
率已經降至40%。 現在他在這情況下，大都投Splitter或Slider來引誘打者。如果打者
放掉這球，大Z就必須用更多的球數來解決打者。 我懷疑這是否跟他4-seamer和Cutter
的失速有關？ 偏高速球是極有效率的三振武器，但如果你能投到95mph，它會更加有效
率！Zambrano今年比去年，更常搶下第一個好球數，球數領先的情況下當然保送變少了
。但卻無法有效三振打者，使的投球數也無法變的更精簡。