by John Sickels on Apr 25, 2008 5:04 PM EDT
http://www.minorleagueball.com/
: Lots of people have been asking me about Phil Hughes, so here goes. First the
: brief career rundown.
很多人都向我詢問Phil Hughes,所以我用這篇文章來討論他。先來看看他的生涯成績。
: Hughes was drafted in the first round in 2004, 23rd overall, out of high
: school in Santa Ana, California. He threw five shutout innings in a
: three-game trial in the Gulf Coast League. Scouts liked his projectability
: and his command of his low-90s fastball, along with a strong slider and
: changeup. I gave him a Grade B in the '05 book, worried about reports
: regarding a sore elbow.
Hughes是在2004年選秀會上第一輪23順位被選走，當時他是加州Santa Ana的高中投手。
他在Gulf Coast League的三場試驗性質比賽中投出5局無失分的表現。不少球探喜歡
Hughes的發展性，同時也對他對於low-90的速球控制感到滿意。而Hughes除了這些之外，
還有強力滑球跟變速球。考慮到有些球探報告中提到手肘痠痛的問題，我在05年給他
B的評價。
: Shoulder trouble limited him to 16 starts in 2005, but they went well,
: including a 1.97 ERA and a 72/16 K/BB in 69 innings in the Sally League, and
: a 21/4 K/BB in 18 innings in the Florida State League. He improved his
: curveball dramatically and began using it more than the slider, to reduce
: stress on his arm. I raised his grade to B+ in the '06 book, but was worried
: about injury risk.
他在05年受制於肩膀問題只先發出賽了16場，但依然表現精彩: 防禦率1.97，在Sally
League出賽69局交出 72/16 K/BB，在Florida State League出賽18局投出21/4 K/BB。
在這個階段，Hughes的曲球戲劇性的產生大幅度進步，也讓他使用曲球的比例開始超過
滑球。這降低了他手臂所承受的負擔。在06年我把他的評價提升到B+，但仍然憂心於受傷
的風險。
: Hughes threw 146 innings in 2006, split between five starts for Tampa and 21
: for Double-A Trenton, where he went 10-3, 2.25 with a 138/32 K/BB in 116
: innings. His velocity spiked into the 93-95 range, hitting 96 at times. The
: curveball also got better. Scouts were somewhat concerned about his erratic
: changeup, but overall it was hard to knock his performance. I gave him a
: straight Grade A, now considering that his injury risk was no higher than any
: other pitcher his age.
Hughes在06年總共在小聯盟投了146局，其中5場替A+ Tampa先發，另外21場則是2A的
Trenton，在那裏他在116局裡10勝3敗、防禦率2.25，138/22 的K/BB。他的速球落在93
到95MPH之間，有時候甚至可以投到96MPH，曲球也進步了。球探有點擔心他不穩的變速球
但是那根本無損於Hughes的表現。我當時直接給他A的評價，並且認為他受傷的風險不會比
同年齡的其他投手來的高。
: As you know, Hughes did have some durability troubles last year, Thankfully
: it was his hamstrings and a bum ankle that were the problems, not his elbow
: or shoulder. He held his own in major league action, very commendable given
: his age and the pressure of the New York environment, but his velocity was
: down at times, and again this year in the early going. In his major league
: career thus far, Hughes is 5-6, 5.14 with a 69/39 K/BB in 91 innings. He's
: been hit hard in April, and I don't like his 11/10 K/BB ratio in 2008.
就如同你們知道的，Hughes去年在持續出場投球上碰到一些困難。幸好經過檢查發現是
腿肌腱跟踝部的問題，而不是手肘或肩膀的舊傷。考慮到他當時的年紀(20歲)，以及在
紐約出賽的環境壓力，他去年的表現其實相當不錯。不過他球速有時候會下滑，同樣的狀
況也發生在今年剛開季。看看他目前的大聯盟成績，5勝6敗、91局ERA 5.14 69/39K/BB。
他在4月裡被打得很慘，同時我也不喜歡他目前11/10 K/BB的比例。
: So what is wrong with Hughes? I get panicked email from Yankees fans, asking
: if he was overhyped. No, he wasn't overhyped. Yes, there is a problem with
: Hughes right now. He's 21, practically skipped Triple-A, and is pitching for
: the New York Freaking Yankees. Cut the kid some slack. Indications are that
: his mechanics are a bit off right now , hampering his fastball command and
: probably the velocity too. As long as he remains healthy, I think there is a
: really good chance that Hughes will be just fine. Maybe he just needs some
: additional Triple-A time to regain his mechanical footing.
所以Hughes到底出了什麼毛病?我收到慌張的洋基球迷來信，詢問著Hughes的實力是不是
被大家過分誇大了。不，並沒有。我承認目前他的確是有問題。不過他才21歲，跳過3A直
接為紐約"怪咖"洋基隊投球。讓這個年輕人喘口氣吧!有些消息指出，他投球機制有點跑掉
同時造成球速跟控球的衰退。只要保持健康，我相信Hughes仍然大有可為。或許他只是需
要在3A出賽一些時間把他的投球機制給修正回來。
: Ah, but there's the standard young pitcher caveat: as long as he remains
: healthy. I'm not worried about the mechanical problem in and of itself: that
: should be correctable. But what if the mechanical problem is a symptom of
: some underlying physical issue? That's known to happen, a pitcher altering
: his delivery on a subconcious level in response to a developing injury that
: he's not even aware of yet. Or what if there is no physical problem right
: now, but the mechanical tinkering triggers one as muscles are stressed in an
: unusual way? That's known to happen, too.
呃，不過這同時也是一個警訊："只要他保持健康" 我並不擔心投球機制本身的問題，因為
我相信那是可以被修正的。不過，如果投球機制的轉變，只是身體問題所產生的症狀呢?
我們已經知道這是會發生的。投手因為尚未成形、自己渾然不覺的傷痛，若有意、若無意
地改變了自己的投球機制。或者是考慮另外一種情形，投手目前還沒有身體上的狀況，
卻因為投球機制的改變帶來肌肉不正常的壓力? 這也是會發生的事情。
: Yankees fans want a prediction. So here's one: Hughes will struggle on and
: off the next month or two, alternate strong outings with weak ones, with a
: slight improvement in his ratios but not enough to make statheads
: comfortable. Then in late July he goes on the DL with an injury of some kind,
: probably something vague like "shoulder weakness." He rests and rehabs, comes
: back in September and pitches like his normal self the rest of the way. He
: still may have to pay the Major Injury Piper sometime down the line, but not
: this year.. Whaddya think?
基迷想要一個預測。那我就來做一個。Hughes在接下來1到2個月持續掙扎，在好投跟爆炸
之間交替，同時會把他的K/BB比例提升，但還不足以讓數據頭滿意。六月下旬，他將會進
DL，原因則可能模糊不明，例如"肩膀不適"之類的毛病。然後經過休息與復健，九月他將
再起，在剩下的比賽中投出我們所期待他正常的一面。Hughes仍然可能要持續為他的舊傷
付出代價，但不是今年。你們怎麼想?