[資訊] 沙漠中的災難:川普的中東計畫為何行不通

作者: kwei (光影)   2020-01-12 04:29:42
Disaster in the Desert:Why Trump’s Middle East Plan Can’t Work, Foreign
Affairs
沙漠中的災難:川普的中東計畫為何行不通
原文:Foreign Affairs https://tinyurl.com/y63ahars
作者:Martin Indyk
譯文:法意讀書 http://www.cwzg.cn/theory/202001/54128.html
譯者:黃致韜 (北大法治研究中心)
【法意導言:中東地區是美國地緣政治上的核心利益所在,川普上任之後,美國的中東政
策發生了很大調整。如何評價這一轉變?曾擔任美國主管近東事務助理國務卿的馬丁·印
迪克(Martin Indyk)在《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)2019年10/11月刊上發表了《
沙漠裡的災難:為什麼川普的中東政策行不通》(Disaster in the Desert:Why Trump
’s Middle East Plan Can’t Work),嚴厲地批評了川普的中東政策。長期以來,美國
在中東的政治對手是尋求區域霸權的伊朗,美國最重要的政治盟友是以色列和沙特阿拉伯
。為了遏制伊朗,季辛吉推動建立的中東秩序,並取得了巨大的成效,其關鍵是調和以色
列與阿拉伯鄰國的矛盾,一致針對、遏制伊朗。但是在建立反伊朗同盟方面,川普試圖以
給予以色列和沙特阿拉伯更大的自由政策空間為代價,讓兩者完全承擔遏制伊朗的責任,
而美國以極小的代價全身而退。作者認為,這是不切實際的美好幻想。作者認為,事實證
明,在中東各派勢力錯綜複雜的情況下,給予盟友更大的政策空間將會導致同盟的內鬥,
進而削弱同盟,瓦解遏制伊朗的力量。在美國直接制裁伊朗方面,川普表面上採取了極其
嚴厲的制裁,但是背後卻沒有足夠的軍事決心,其出爾反爾的性格也同時削弱了制裁的效
果和盟友的信心。這導致伊朗反擊,重新開始核計畫。作者認為,這一切是川普不瞭解中
東極其複雜的現實,同時又剛愎自用造成的,美國的政策應該盡快回到原有的軌道。】
In July 2019, Jason Greenblatt, then U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy for
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, attended a routine quarterly UN Security
Council meeting about the Middle East. Providing an update on the Trump
administration’s thinking about the peace process, he pointedly told the
surprised audience that the United States no longer respected the “fiction”
of an international consensus on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
2019年7月,美國總統川普的巴以談判特使傑森·格林布拉特(Jason Greenblatt),參
加了聯合國安理會關於中東問題的例行季度會議。在提供川普政府對和平進程的最新想法
時,他尖銳地告訴驚訝的聽眾,美國不再尊重在巴以問題上達成“虛構”的國際共識。
Greenblatt went out of his way to attack not some extreme or obscure measure
but UN Security Council Resolution 242, the foundation of half a century of
Arab-Israeli negotiations and of every agreement Israel has achieved within
them, including the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan. He railed against
its ambiguous wording, which has shielded Israel for decades against Arab
demands for a full withdrawal from occupied territory, as “tired rhetoric
designed to prevent progress and bypass direct negotiations” and claimed
that it had hurt rather than helped the chances for real peace in the region.
格林布拉特特意攻擊的不是一些極端或模糊的措施,而是聯合國安理會第242號決議,這
是半個世紀以來阿以談判的基礎,也是以色列在談判中達成的每一項協議的基礎,包括與
埃及和約旦的和平條約。他譴責其含糊不清的措辭,雖然這種措辭幾十年來一直保護以色
列不受阿拉伯要求其從佔領土全面撤軍的影響,他稱其為“旨在阻止進展和繞過直接談判
的陳詞濫調”,並聲稱這傷害了而不是幫助了該地區實現真正和平的機會。
The indignation was calculated. Guided by his boss Jared Kushner, the
president’s son-in-law and senior adviser on the Middle East, Greenblatt was
trying to change the conversation, to “start a new, realistic discussion”
of the subject. UN resolutions, international law, global consensus—all
that was irrelevant. From now on, Washington would no longer advocate a
two-state solution to the conflict, with independent Jewish and Palestinian
states living alongside each other in peace and security.
這種憤慨是計算好的。在他老闆,總統的女婿和中東高級顧問,賈裡德·庫什納(Jared
Kushner)的指導下,格林布拉特嘗試改變對話,在該領域“開展新的、現實的討論”。
聯合國決議、國際法、國際共識——這一切都與此無關。從此以後,華盛頓將不再主張以
兩國方案解決衝突,讓獨立的猶太和巴勒斯坦國家在和平與安全中共存。
Greenblatt's presentation was part of a broader campaign by the Trump
administration to break with the past and create a new Middle Eastern order.
To please a president who likes simple, cost-free answers, the
administration's strategists appear to have come up with a clever plan. The
United States can continue to withdraw from the region but face no adverse
consequences for doing so, because Israel and Saudi Arabia will pick up the
slack. Washington will subcontract the job of containing Iran, the principal
source of regional instability, to Israel and Saudi Arabia in the Levant and
the Persian Gulf, respectively. And the two countries' common interest in
countering Iran will improve their bilateral relationship, on which Israel
can build a tacit alliance with the Sunni Arab world. The proxies get broad
leeway to execute Washington's mandate at will, and their patron gets a new,
Trumpian order on the cheap. Unfortunately, this vision is a fantasy.
格林布拉特的演講是川普政府打破過去、創建中東新秩序的更廣泛運動的一部分。為了取
悅一位喜歡簡單、免費答案的總統,政府的戰略家們似乎想出了一個聰明的計畫。美國可
以繼續從該地區撤軍,但不會因此而面臨不利後果,因為以色列和沙特阿拉伯將會彌補這
一不足。華盛頓將把遏制伊朗這個地區不穩定的主要來源的任務分別分包給黎凡特和波斯
灣地區的以色列和沙特阿拉伯。兩國在對抗伊朗問題上的共同利益將改善雙邊關係,在此
基礎上,以色列可以與遜尼派阿拉伯世界建立默契的聯盟。代理人獲得了廣泛的迴旋餘地
,可以隨心所欲地執行華盛頓的命令,而他們的贊助人則以低廉的代價獲得一個新的、川
普式的秩序。不幸的是,這種願景只是一種幻想。
In the mid-1970s, even as the United States retrenched after its defeat in
Vietnam, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger successfully laid the
foundations for a new, U.S.-led Middle Eastern order. His main tool was
active diplomacy to reconcile Israel and its Arab neighbors. In many
respects, his efforts and those that followed were strikingly successful,
producing peace treaties between Israel and Egypt and between Israel and
Jordan, as well as an interim agreement with the Palestinians.
在20世紀70年代中期,即使美國在越南戰敗後緊縮開支,美國國務卿亨利·季辛吉(
Henry Kissinger)還是成功地為美國領導的中東新秩序奠定了基礎。他的主要工具是積
極的外交手段來調和以色列及其阿拉伯鄰國。在許多方面,他和繼任者的努力取得了驚人
的成功,在以色列和埃及之間以及以色列和約旦之間達成了和平條約,並與巴勒斯坦人達
成了臨時協議。
Progress stalled during the twenty-first century, however, as the second
intifada dashed hopes for Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation, the Iraq war
empowered a revolutionary Iran, and the Arab Spring destabilized the region
and triggered the rise of the Islamic State, or ISIS.
然而,21世紀的進展停滯不前,因為第二次起義粉碎了以色列-巴勒斯坦和解的希望,伊
拉克戰爭增強了伊朗的革命力量,阿拉伯之春破壞了該地區的穩定,並引發了伊斯蘭國,
ISIS,的崛起。
Whoever won the presidency in 2016, therefore, would have faced a bleak
diplomatic landscape in the Middle East. Any recent administration would have
responded to this situation by going back to basics and painstakingly trying
to reconstruct the order Kissinger built, since it has, on balance, served
U.S. interests well. Instead, the Trump administration decided to blow up
what was left.
因此,無論是誰在2016年贏得總統大選,都會面臨中東慘淡的外交前景。任何最近的政府
都會對這種情況作出回應,回到基礎上,努力重建季辛吉建立的秩序,因為總的來說,它
很好地服務於美國的利益。相反的是,川普政府決定炸掉剩下的東西。
This is not reckless mayhem or mere domestic politics, goes the official
line, but creative destruction
作者: kwei (光影)   2020-01-12 04:30:00
天真的美國人應排除deep state那一群。
作者: kpier2 (條漢子)   2020-01-12 13:02:00
就像中國搞脫貧? 自欺欺人不叫做治國好嗎!

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