其實我覺得如果要微觀美國選情就是要優先觀察搖擺州
不然那些幾十年都沒換另一政營拿下選舉人票的穩固州就在那邊好好的，妳去管她幹嘛？
『 第一段已稍微翻譯 』
重點就是明尼蘇達是民主黨鐵票州，但從1984最接近拿下以來，2016又再度拉近
Politics
Analysis
The five
political states
of Minnesota
Story by David Weigel
Map by Lauren Tierney
Sept. 13, 2020
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Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Sixth in a series on swing states
For Republicans, Minnesota has long been the one that got away. Ronald Reagan
came 3,761 votes away from carrying it in 1984, with Walter Mondale’s hometown
advantage probably costing him a 50-state sweep. Sixteen years later, with
Ralph Nader peeling votes away from Al Gore, George W. Bush came within three
points of winning the state.
明尼蘇達已經有好一段時間都是民主黨的禁臠，對於共和黨而言，明尼蘇達始終遙不可及
最接近能夠拿到明尼蘇達十張選舉人票的一次，早是偉大的雷根總統競選連任的1984年
該年雷根總統就差3,761位明尼蘇達選民就能夠橫掃鯨吞美國全五十州
除華盛頓特區及明尼蘇達共計13張選舉人票
https://upload.cc/i1/2020/09/23/lbGI9q.jpg
請看看這個，這還給對手面子嗎？簡直是妖獸變態的
雷根在競選連任的1984年拿下共計525張選舉人票，而其對手僅僅拿下13張而已
Republicans didn’t get so close again until 2016, when Donald Trump lost
Minnesota by 44,593 votes. And it has rankled Trump ever since. “We came this
close from winning this,” Trump said during a 2018 visit to Duluth, a
frustrated take he’d deliver again and again, arguing that a little more
campaigning would have flipped the state. “One more speech — oh, one more
speech.”
Trump’s party has acted on that analysis, investing the same sort of ground
game and ad resources in Minnesota that it has in places like Michigan,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. That’s a shift from 2016, when both parties were
surprised by what Trump’s ad hoc effort almost pulled off. But Democrats have
engaged more seriously, too, coaxing Joe Biden into a visit this week, when
early voting begins.
How Minnesota swung from 2012 to 2016
Clinton added votes in the Twin Cities, enough to stave off Trump’s gains in
the rest of the state.
Dem. won by
200K votes
GOP won
by 200K
TIE
Twin Cities
Iron Range
2016
margin
2012
margin
Twin Suburbs
Southeast
Greater Minn.
Statewide 2016 margin
In 2018, Democrats improved enough in the Iron Range and the Twin Burbs that a
GOP win was impossible.
No poll has found Trump ahead in Minnesota, but polling underestimated his 2016
support, and Republicans contend he has held or gained ground since then. As
in the rest of the Midwest, Trump struggled in cities but won vast numbers of
rural White voters — and in Minnesota, that cut right through the coalition
that had elected Democrats for decades. Rural towns that had elected only
Democratic mayors or legislators swung to Trump, and even though Democrats
swept 2018’s statewide races, some of those voters stayed swung.
“The Democrats have left them behind,” said Jennifer Carnahan, the chair of
Minnesota’s GOP. “They call themselves the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, but
they’ve completely lost the farmers and members of labor unions. They’re
against mining. They’re against job creation. They’re against a pipeline up
in northeastern Minnesota on the Iron Range. They don’t stand with those folks
anymore.”
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Democrats have lost ground with some of their traditional Minnesota voters, but
the 2018 election revealed the limits of the GOP’s gains. Trump had won just
45 percent of the vote in 2016 and got close to Clinton in part because 9
percent of voters backed a third-party candidate. (Just two other states saw a
higher percentage of third-party votes, Alaska and New Mexico.) In 2018, no
Republican running statewide got more than 45 percent of the vote, and
Democrats improved their numbers in the Iron Range and Southeast Minnesota,
carrying outer suburbs of the Twin Cities at levels that made a Republican win
impossible.
This map divides Minnesota into five political “states.” Just one, the Twin
Cities, got more Democratic in 2016. Another, the suburbs and exurbs of those
cities, changed little between 2012 and 2016 but swung left in 2018. Two
regions flipped from Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016 — the counties from
the Iron Range over to Duluth and Lake Superior, and a corner of Southeast
Minnesota. And the rest of the state, the Greater Minnesota that stretches from
Iowa to Canada, moved dramatically toward the GOP.
This is the sixth in a series breaking down the key swing states of 2020,
showing how electoral trends played out over the past few years and where the
shift in votes really mattered.
Twin Cities
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a higher share of people living in cities than average.
Has more non-White residents than average.
Has more college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Minneapolis saved Hillary Clinton’s campaign in Minnesota. The biggest and
bluest city in the state, it had been getting more Democratic for years, but
Keith Ellison — then the city’s congressman, now the state’s attorney
general — put special emphasis on turning out the vote. The result, a 148,892-
vote landslide in Minneapolis, was the biggest for any Democratic candidate
ever, and it put Clinton over the top statewide.
Minneapolis and St. Paul now make up the core of the Democratic vote, and their
surrounding counties, Hennepin and Ramsey, pad the total. Clinton carried
every town in Ramsey and flipped several Hennepin towns that Obama had lost;
two years later, places like Eden Prairie were crucial to the successful
Democratic effort to flip the House. When the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL)
Party went all-in this year to support Rep. Ilhan Omar in her August primary,
it was explicitly because of her ability to drive turnout in the city.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
262,771
Hillary Clinton
606,881
Counties included: Hennepin, Ramsey
Twin Burbs
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a higher share of people living in cities than average.
Has fewer non-White residents than average.
Has more college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
The exurbs of Minneapolis and St. Paul did not see the same vote shifts as the
rest of the state. From 2012 to 2016, the GOP margin in the region rose by just
5,415 votes, and a lot of that had to do with the vote for third-party
candidates — that number grew by 47,880, as the raw Republican vote fell by 16
,926. Minnesota was one of 11 states where independent conservative Evan
McMullin made the ballot that year, and he got 2 percent of the vote here while
the Libertarian candidate cleared 4 percent. Republicans view those voters as
gettable for Trump. Democrats aren’t convinced.
“These have been Republican areas for years, but they’ve trended Democratic
in recent cycles,” DFL chair Ken Martin said. “You’ve got Fortune 500
executives, in wealthy neighborhoods, who are not comfortable with Trump.”
Democrats, who are trying to flip the GOP-controlled state senate this cycle,
are hoping to build on some of their exurban gains from the midterms.
Democratic Gov. Tim Walz carried three of the region’s five counties; Sen. Amy
Klobuchar, whose appeal to Republicans was central to her presidential
campaign, carried them all. With Klobuchar’s endorsement, Biden demolished the
competition here in the 2020 primary, which Democrats saw as a clue that he
could win some Republicans who’ve grown uncomfortable with the party in the
Trump era.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
326,644
Hillary Clinton
303,094
Counties included: Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Scott, Washington
Iron Range
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
Has fewer non-White residents than average.
Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
For decades, the small mining towns of northeastern Minnesota were strongholds
of unionized, Democratic votes — vastly outvoted by the Twin Cities but
crucial for the party’s statewide win margin and usually represented by the
party in Congress. That began to change in 2010, and the floor fell out in 2016
, when Trump swept the Iron Range. Republicans picked up the region’s House
seat in 2018, and polling has found Biden, who has embraced more rigorous
environmental standards than he did when he ran for vice president, losing the
Iron Range even when he leads statewide.
There may be more votes for Republicans to pick up here, even in the counties
east of the range that stayed blue in 2016. Duluth, which casts almost a
quarter of the region’s total vote, broke for the Democratic ticket by 37
points in 2012, then by just 29 points in 2016. The falloff for Democrats in
smaller cities was dramatic, and the Republican National Convention highlighted
a number of Minnesotans who advanced the party’s case: The pro-green-energy,
pro-abortion-rights, pro-gun-control version of the Democratic Party didn’t
represent northeastern Minnesota.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
101,186
Hillary Clinton
96,679
Counties included: Aitkin, Carlton, Cook, Crow Wing, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake,
St. Louis
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Southeast
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
Has fewer non-White residents than average.
Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
The “driftless area” that covers parts of Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota swung
hard toward Republicans in 2016. Unlike other rural areas, Democrats in 2018
were able to win much of it back; in Minnesota that was thanks, in part, to
gubernatorial candidate Tim Walz winning the 1st Congressional District, which
covers the region. Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn flipped that district by one
point, but Trump had won it by 15.
What changed? Clinton lost eight counties that had backed Obama twice and won
only around the city of Rochester, where the Mayo Clinic has fostered a
population of college-educated White voters. The midterm’s Democrats won many
of those people back, as voters in the suburbs of cities like Mankato and
Winona broke against Republicans. One reason for their resilience: The region
has welcomed thousands of refugees, for decades, and the population of some
smaller cities here has been growing as more rural parts of the state have
shrunk.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
199,140
Hillary Clinton
148,412
Counties included: Blue Earth, Brown, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn,
Goodhue, Houston, Le Sueur, Martin, Mower, Nicollet, Olmsted, Rice, Sibley,
Steele, Wabasha, Waseca, Watonwan, Winona
Greater Minnesota
Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …
Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
Has fewer non-White residents than average.
Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
For a little while on election night 2016, some Democrats started to think that
Minnesota was lost. Greater Minnesota, a largely rural region bigger than many
states, was the reason. Even in 1984, Democrats had held on to towns like
Benson and Red Lake, mitigating the GOP’s rural strength. Trump carried every
single county in the region, transforming the party’s win margin of nearly 43,
000 votes in 2012 to more than 208,000 votes in 2016.
The GOP’s gains in much of the region look secure now; Democrats have tried to
drum up rural outrage over Trump’s tariff policies, while Republicans have
touted the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as proof that Trump will act where
Democrats talked. (Rep. Collin C. Peterson, one of the GOP’s top targets this
cycle, chairs the House Agriculture Committee and backed the trade deal after
Democratic revisions.) Trump’s visit to Bemidji this week will take him to one
of the places where the flip was especially dramatic — Obama beat Mitt Romney
there by 1,079 votes, while Trump beat Clinton there by 119. Margins like that
, from small towns to small cities, let Trump close the statewide vote gap —
but not overcome it.
2016 vote total
Donald Trump
433,639
Hillary Clinton
212,468
Counties included: Becker, Beltrami, Benton, Big Stone, Cass, Chippewa, Chisago
, Clay, Clearwater, Cottonwood, Douglas, Grant, Hubbard, Isanti, Jackson,
Kanabec, Kandiyohi, Kittson, Lac qui Parle, Lake of the Woods, Lincoln, Lyon,
Mahnomen, Marshall, McLeod, Meeker, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Murray, Nobles,
Norman, Otter Tail, Pennington, Pine, Pipestone, Polk, Pope, Red Lake, Redwood,
Renville, Rock, Roseau, Sherburne, Stearns, Stevens, Swift, Todd, Traverse,
Wadena, Wilkin, Wright, Yellow Medicine
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