Technology turns even-handed
科技進展，良窳參半
Whatever the particular circumstances of a city, though, its vigour was
likely to be affected by technological change. Just as it was improvements in
farming that brought about the surpluses that made possible the first fixed
settlements, so it was improvements in transport that made possible the
development of trade on which the prosperity of so many cities depended. Other
technological changes made it possible to survive in a city. The Romans, for
instance, constructed aqueducts to bring fresh water to their towns and sewers
to provide sanitation.
一個城市無論是處於多麼特殊的環境，它的活力泉源還是極有可能受到科技變化的影
響。如同畜牧技術的進步能獲得多餘的存糧，使圈養牲口得以成真一般；在運輸上的進步
同樣也能促進貿易發展，並帶動城市依存的繁榮景況。而其他的科技變化也使得人們更容
易在城市裡生存下去。以羅馬為例，引水渠道位城市帶來乾淨的水，下水道則提供了更好
的環境衛生。
But only the rich benefited. Most Romans, and many city-dwellers throughout
history, lived in squalor, and many died of it. Towns were crowded and insani-
tary; people were often malnourished; and disease spread fast. Though cities
grew in size and number for long periods, they could decline and fall, too.
Between 1000 and 1300 Europe’s urban population more than doubled, to about 70
million (thanks partly to a new system of crop rotation, made possible by better
tools). Then, with the Black Death, it fell by a quarter. Country people died
too, but the city-dwellers were especially vulnerable. Their health depended
above all on clean water and sanitation, which few had, and cheap soap and
medicines, which had yet to be invented.
但其實受益的卻只有有錢人，歷史上大部分的羅馬居民都住在骯髒的環境中，許多人
不免死於其中。整個城鎮既擁擠又污穢，人們往往營養不良，而疾病也散播得飛快。即便
城鎮在規模及數量上成長了好一段時間，但仍有衰敗和沒落的一日。在西元1000年至1300
年的歐洲，人口成長超過了一倍之多，約有七千多萬人(部份歸功於較好的農耕機具，導致
了新的輪耕制度)。不過在那之後，黑死病的降臨使人口銳減了四分之一。雖仍有人在鄉下
病亡，不過城市居民還是最主要的受害份子。他們的健康仰賴乾淨的水與衛生環境，但卻
少之又少；至於便宜的肥皂和藥物，當時尚未發明。
Not surprisingly, the next big change in the development of the city also
turned on a leap in technology: the invention of engines and manufacturing
machinery. The Industrial Revolution did nothing at first to make urban life
easier, but it did provide jobs—lots of them. With the new factories of the
industrial age that began in the late 18th century was born an entirely new
urban era. Peasants left the land in their multitudes to live in new cities,
first in the north of England, then all over Europe and North America. By 1900,
13% of the world’s population had become urban.
並不意外的是，下個城市發展的大變遷同樣抓穩了科技進程的躍進－－也就是內燃機
的發明與工業機械化。起先工業革命對城市生活的便利尚無影響，不過它確實提供了大多
數人的工作機會。隨著十八世紀末製造業時期的新型廠房出現，一個嶄新的都市紀元也就
宣告誕生。農夫們紛紛離開了原屬的土地而展開新的城市生活，起先是在北英格蘭，隨後
遍及到整個歐洲及北美。1900年始，世界上的人口已有13%歸在城市之列。
The latest leap, from 13% to 50% in just 107 years, also owes something to
science and technology: improvements in medicine, coupled with new knowledge
about ways to avoid disease, have enabled more and more people to live together
without succumbing as once they did to diarrhoea, tuberculosis, cholera and
other pestilences. The same developments, however, have similarly lengthened
lives in the countryside, leading to a huge increase in rural population. Human
ingenuity has not matched this increase with commensurate growth in rural
prosperity. As a result, ever more villagers have been upping sticks to seek a
better life in the city.
到最近一次的躍進，13%到50%不過是一百零七個年頭；這得歸功於某些科學與科技上
的成就：醫藥上的進步、疾病預防與新知識的結合、能讓愈來愈多的人住在一起並免除受
到像腹瀉、結核病、霍亂及惡性傳染病的死亡威脅。這些發展同樣延長了鄉下人的壽命，
帶來鄉下人口的巨幅增加。但由於當地發展無法與人口成長達到同等的規模，結果就是更
多的鄉下人必須離鄉背景，到城市裡去尋覓更好的生存環境。
The sheer scale and speed of the current urban expansion make it unlike any
of the big changes that have punctuated urban history. It mostly consists of
poor people migrating in unprecedented numbers, and then producing babies on a
similarly unprecedented scale. It is thus largely a phenomenon of poor and
middle-income countries; the rich world has put most of its urbanisation behind
it.
以目前的城市而言，其筆直上升的規模及擴張速率已非同小可，迥異於以往任何一件
足以在城市歷史上留下的紀錄。現代的城市多數是由窮人移民組成，況且數量是史無前例
地多，這環境下誕生的嬰兒也是空前盛況。如此一來，在中低收入以下的國家，可說是蔚
為一大奇觀；反觀富有的地區絲毫不受這樣的都市化影響。
In poor countries, though, the trend is set to continue. The United Nations
forecasts that today’s urban population of 3.2 billion will rise to nearly
five billion by 2030, when three out of five people will live in cities. The
increase will be most dramatic in the poorest and least-urbanised continents,
Asia and Africa. They are the ones least able to cope. Already over 90% of the
urban population of Ethiopia, Malawi and Uganda, three of the world’s most
rural countries, live in slums.
在貧困的國家，這樣的態勢恐怕還得繼續下去。根據聯合國的預測，今日32億的都市
人口將會持續上升，在2030年前到達約50億的數量，五人當中將有三人住在城市裡頭。增
幅最劇烈的地方則是最貧窮且缺乏都市化的兩大洲，亞洲和非洲。這兩大洲有著許多最不
易紓困的地區存在。像是在衣索比亞、馬拉威和烏干達這三個世界上最落後的國家，有超
過90%的都市居民是生活在貧民窟裡。
Within 10 years the world will have nearly 500 cities of more than one
million people. Most of the newcomers will be absorbed in a metropolis of up to
five million people. But some will live in a megacity, defined as home to 10
million or more inhabitants. In 1950 only New York and Tokyo could claim to be
as big, but by 2020, says the UN, nine cities—Delhi, Dhaka, Jakarta, Lagos,
Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, São Paulo and Tokyo—will have more than 20
million inhabitants. Greater Tokyo already has 35 million, more than the entire
population of Canada.
在近十年內，世界上將增加約五百個人口超過一百萬的都市。在這之中，大多數的新
興城市又會合併成擁有五百萬人口的都會區。不過還是有人將居住於那些超過千萬人口的
大型城市中。在1950年時僅有紐約和東京能如此宣稱，但在2020年以前，又將有九個城市
會超過兩千萬的居民，分別是德里(印度)、卡達(孟加拉)、雅加達(印尼)、拉哥斯(奈及利
亞)、墨西哥市(墨西哥)、孟買(印度)、紐約州(美國)、聖保羅(巴西)和東京都(日本)。東
京都會區已高達三千五百萬人，比整個加拿大的人口都還要多。
The Megalopolis of the ancient world was in Arcadia, a part of Greece cited
by Virgil as a model of happy, rural simplicity. The cities that now go by that
generic name are far from Arcadian. Successful these places may be, if success
is measured by growth of population. But most are in poor countries and many,
if not most, of their inhabitants live in slums.
據古時維吉爾所述，當時有個位在阿爾卡笛亞的都會區，那是希臘一處美好且純樸的
世外桃源。不過目前的城市與阿爾卡笛亞的典型已相去甚遠。當今的城市榮景或許是成功
的，但得假若是由人口成長率來評量才行。何況這些城市大多是在貧窮國家，就算不是大
部分的居民，其中仍多得是待在貧民窟裡的。
In the rich world, though, the city is undergoing very different changes.
Many of the new towns that flourished in the Industrial Revolution and the
manufacturing era that followed have been losing population. Even New York, for
so long the epitome of urban sophistication, went through a bad patch in the
1970s. Some cities retain their role as administrative centres, by virtue of
their political status. Some are still trading hubs, by virtue of their
geographical position. Some endure simply because they have reached an equilib-
rium. But others struggle.
回頭看看富有的地區，這裡的城市則是進行著完全不同的變革。許多在工業革命，及
隨後的製造業時期繁榮興起的城鎮，也開始流失人口。即使是紐約州這個長久以來的都市
象徵，也曾在1970年代經歷過一段慘澹期。某些城市便藉由政治上的權勢與地位，以鞏固
本身行政中心的角色。有些則靠著地理位置的優勢，來維持原來貿易中心的繁茂。有些則
已達到平衡，也就容忍當前的情況。不過仍在掙扎的所在多有。
Of the traditional reasons for urban living, several (the presence of the
shrine, the proximity of food) have lost their importance. Some of what the
city provided (shops, factories) can now be offered in suburban malls or
industrial parks—or in low-cost urban rivals in the developing world. Security,
once one of the main reasons for huddling together, is often now more elusive
in the druggy streets of the metropolis than in the exurbs. And technology,
which has usually favoured urban progress, now enables people to work in rural
bliss on home computers. No wonder so many cities find that in order to
flourish they have to reinvent themselves.
基於貿易是都市生存的理由，許多城市已經喪失了他們的重要性(像是聖地的所在和靠
近食物來源)。一些城市所能提供的場所(如店舖和工廠)開始被郊區的量販店和工業園區所
取代──或者是發展中國家的低成本的競爭對手。在治安上，要是提到一群人會聚在一塊
的理由，往往能夠在充斥毒品的都市暗巷裡找到答案，而不是在紓曠身心的城外郊區，實
在是難以理解。至於那協助進步的科技推手，已使人們透過家用電腦，在仙境般的鄉野間
進行工作。難怪會有如此多的城市發現，繁榮是來自於城市本身的再次創造。
Nearly all rich-country cities, whether prospering or declining, worry about
transport, pollution, energy, pockets of poverty and so on. These offer troubles
aplenty. But they are of a different order to those faced by poor-country
cities, whose problems are vastly greater and resources vastly smaller. While
rich cities fret over a relatively modest ebb and flow of population, poor
cities must cope with a tidal wave of migrants.
無論正值繁榮抑或衰退，幾乎所有富足的城市都在擔心諸如運輸、污染、能源以及窮
人生計等等的問題，從中也衍生了相當多的麻煩。不過對於那些貧窮的城市來說，它們所
遇到的問題與前者是完全不同的層級，問題之大與資源之少可來得艱難多了。正當富足的
城市擔憂著些微的經濟衰退和人口氾濫的問題，窮困的城市也必得應付這洶湧至極的外移
人潮了。
So the history of the city has come to a fork—the diverging paths of rich
and poor, and the prospects for the city if the developing world can one day
clamber out of poverty. It’s interesting to look at the urban reality awaiting
the Dick Whittingtons of the 21st century.
於是城市的歷史在此來到了岔路之上，也就是貧富之間的分歧，以及對發展中地區能
夠脫離貧困的一份展望。著眼在當前等待二十一世紀的迪克‧威靈頓現身的都市現狀來說
，實在是再有意思不過了。