P2P經濟結構來了！
Peer-to-peer, or P2P, networks have thrown the media industry into turmoil,
changing the flow of information from a one-to-many model (with newspaper
publishers, Hollywood studios, and big music companies as the sources) to a
many-to-many model (with blogs, YouTube, and file-sharing forums as the venues).
The ability of individuals to both consume and create content—news, movies, and
music—greatly threatens traditional players. Witness the struggles of
established U.S. newspaper publishers—the share prices of the four largest
have fallen between 10% and 50% during the generally rising market of the past
three years—because of challenges from new media and advertising models,
including P2P schemes.
點對點傳輸網路(簡稱P2P)，已將多媒體工業捲進一場大騷動，它改變了資訊以往的傳
播流向，從原本的一對多形態(諸如報紙出版商、好萊塢影視和大型音樂公司所扮演的來源
角色)變成多對多形態(像是部落格、YouTube視頻平台以及檔案共享的線上討論室，成為共
襄盛舉的聚集所在)。這種只需個人就能兼具消費和創作(如新聞、電影與音樂)的能力，大
大地威脅了秉持傳統立場的角色。以美國的報紙出版商為見證，在過去三年內，受到這普
遍崛起的市場挑戰之下，前四大報社的股價已紛紛下跌了10%至50%不等，正歸因於新的傳
播媒介和廣告模式，當然包含了P2P系統。
A shock like the one that jolted the media is poised to strike other
industries, perhaps more disruptively. It is already being felt in financial
services. Start with the phenomenon of microcredit: the lending of small sums
(這一段翻得七葷八素@[email protected]")
to, and then within, social groups at the village level in poor economies, with
members collectively guaranteeing the bank’s loan. Combine that with the power
of a global digital network, and a new model for banking begins to take shape.
另一項足以和撼動傳媒界相比的衝擊，也早就蓄勢待發，即將打擊其餘的工業界，或
許會更具有分化力。而此現象已經闖進了金融服務業，一切得從微型賒貸的奇蹟說起。對
於一群貧困環境中僅有農村水平的人們，將他們的小額借貸匯整後，再從中募集成員為此
筆貸款認作擔保。把此功能與全球化數位系統的力量結合以後，一種銀行業的新模式也就
得以成型。
Indeed, P2P financial systems are set to reprise in the banking industry
what has happened in media. Already, websites like Kiva.org, Prosper.com, and
LendingClub.com have extended microbanking to consumers in developed economies.
In such systems, everyone is a tiny bank, making it easier to raise small
amounts of capital among people who know—or at least, because of their social
network, trust—one another.
確實，P2P金融系統已做好在銀行業登台的準備，上演在傳媒業發生的相同戲碼。像
是Kiva.org、 Prosper.com、和LendingClub.com這些網站，都已經著手拓展微型賒貸到
已開發經濟體系的顧客版圖。在這樣的體系之下，每個人都可成為一個極小的銀行，在一
群彼此認識(或至少說，他們在人脈網絡中的信任)的人當中，更容易募集到小筆的資金。
It is only a matter of time before these digital systems close the arbitrage
enjoyed by large banks, which lend at up to 15% interest but pay only about 5%
on capital. Why do business with a bank when your network’s lending and savings
interest rates are both 7%? To grasp the power of such a system, imagine your
local credit union with the membership and social networking capabilities of
MySpace.(註：MySpace是目前全球最大的社區交友網站)
對這類數位系統而言，要關閉當前大型銀行所享獲套利(註：此指的是從兩樣相同性質
的交易項中，從中買賣所賺取的差價，更詳細的法則請求助商科人士。)的門路，不過只是
時間上的問題，這些公司從中取得高達15%的利益，卻只付出了約5%的貸款額。當你網路上
借款和儲蓄的利率都達到7%時，為何還得和銀行做這筆生意？為瞭解這項體制的威力，你可
試想當在地的信用會社，與MySpace裡的會員及網路功能統合後的情形。
Furthermore, people will soon use personal currencies to make payments for
“knowledge services” provided by other individuals, such as social introduc-
tions and shopping tips. These currencies will be traded on exchanges at
floating rates determined by the market in real time. Like national currencies,
personal currencies derive their value from the reputation and size of the
(好字眼˙Ｖ˙b)
network—status as an expert and number of friends, in this case, rather than
market expectations and size of the economy.
除此之外，人們將很快地開始使用個人貨幣(註：這裡想表達的是一種取代真實貨幣的
虛擬價值概念，只是中文沒有對應的字眼可用>_<)，來償付由他人提供的「知識服務」，
像是社交入門或購物訣竅之類的。這些貨幣將跟上真實市場中的資產流動率，作為貿易上
的交流憑藉。如同國家的貨幣一般，個人貨幣的價值則是從網路上的信譽和聲望而來，像
是專家的地位以及朋友的數量；在這樣的事例中，並非源自市場預期和經濟體的規模。
An even greater shock could hit the energy industry, transforming it into a
network that would make the current electricity grid seem rudimentary. Again,
the consumer-producer would be the driving force. Some people are already insta-
lling home-based solar or other energy sources that allow them to sell electri-
city to the grid. Companies are using the roofs of their buildings for
installations that turn the facilities into net power producers. Energy
production and distribution could ultimately shift from a few key players to
many participants.
甚至還有一記更大的震撼可能衝擊到能源業，將迫使當前的電力網絡相形失色。又一
次地，兼具消費與製造的人們將再度成為幕後推手。目前已有某些民眾在家裝上了太陽能
或其他形式的產能設備，使得他們能夠將電力販售給其業者。而這些公司也開始利用一般
住家的屋頂，企圖將這些場所轉變成供應能源的子網路。於此，能源的生產與分配也就可
由一部份關鍵的操作者，最終回歸到大多數的關係人身上。
The real breakthrough will come when cars generate more electricity than
they consume—not as outlandish as it sounds. Hybrid vehicles currently take
the kinetic electricity generated by braking and use it to help fuel motion and
prolong battery life. Kinetic and battery technologies could improve to the
point where cars generate excess kinetic power from their motion to be stored
and sold back to the grid for micropayments.
當汽車產生的電力比消耗的量還多時，一項新的突破就即將來臨－它可不像聽起來那
般弔詭。最近的油電混合車可利用煞車時產生的動能，幫助燃燒的過程和延長電池的壽命
。動力與電池科技，即改善了汽車在產生多餘的動力功率此過程中的儲能指標。再行回賣
給業者，以達到聚沙成塔的報償效果。
These successive and ever more disruptive P2P shock waves foreshadow a
distributed economy in which consumption is transformed into production that
provides micro-income streams for individuals. The greater efficiency of such a
system would help us all to live closer to sustainable economic equilibrium—
which would be, on the whole, quite a pleasant shock.
這些紛沓而至的成功案例和P2P這枚更具分化性的空前震撼彈，已預現了一個能為個人
(這樣長的名詞都很難翻....~_~")
添增微薄收入、並將消費轉化為製造的分佈式經濟體。如此更有效率的系統，或許將幫助
我們更靠近穩固的經濟平衡點上－大體而言，是一個相當愜意的震驚。