這網站雖然蠻多政治類的內容而且太偏空
但還算不錯，偶爾我會看
幫忙翻譯一下
標題:
自3月低點以來，股市上漲76% ，創100年來第三大漲幅... ... 接下來會發生什麼
For his weekly Flow Show report, BofA's Michael Hartnett picked a remarkable
front cover chart, one showing that the 76% jump in US stocks from Mar’20
lows is now the 3rd largest YoY move in the past 100 years.
美國銀行的邁克爾 ·哈特尼特
在他的每週(資金)流動報告中精選了一張引人注目的封面圖表
其中顯示美國股市從3月20日的低點上漲了76%
這是過去100年來第三大年漲幅。
Among the factors making this possible was the return of the record stock
market mania(狂熱), which in the last week manifested itself in another round
of huge inflows into stocks ($25.6bn) bonds, ($17.9bn), all funded by an even
bigger ($47.3bn) outflow from of cash, the largest in 4 months. Among the
"flows to know" according to Hartnett, there were strong inflows to IG bonds
($9.8bn) & EM equities ($5.1bn), plus tech inflows resume ($1.6bn); inflow to
global stocks past 5 months ($602bn) exceeds inflow in prior 12 years ($452bn)
…note US corporate buybacks ($6.3tn over past 12 years).
造成這種可能性的因素之一，是創紀錄的股市狂熱再起。
上週，股市狂熱表現為又一輪巨額資金流入股市(256億美元)債券(179億美元)，
所有這些資金都來自更大規模(473億美元)的現金流出，為4個月來的最大流出。
哈特尼特表示，在“知情流動”中，有大量資金流入 IG(投資級) 債券(98億美元)
和新興市場股票(51億美元) ，再加上科技資金流入(16億美
元) ;
過去5個月流入全球股市的資金(6020億美元)
超過過去12年流入的資金(4520億美元) ... ...
請注意美國企業回購(過去12年回購6.3兆美元)。
Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833
million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on
Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion
jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but
one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit
optimism.
哈特尼特接著指出了另一個歷史性的里程碑:
到目前為止，自12月8日英國首次接種疫苗以來，
全球已經接種了8.33億2019冠狀病毒疾病疫苗，
按照這個速度，全球疫苗接種將在
4月23日的6天內超過10億次。
Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833
million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on
Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion
jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but
one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit
optimism.
哈特尼特接著指出了另一個歷史性的里程碑: 到目前為止，自12月8日英國首次接種疫苗
以來，全球已經接種了8.33億COVID-19病毒疾病疫苗，按照這個速度，全球疫苗接種將在
4月23日後6天內超過10億次。
As a reminder, earlier this week BofA quant and chief equity strategist
Savita Subramanian explained her reasons why she expects the S&P500 to drop
10% and close the year at 3,800 making BofA tied for the most pessimistic
banks on Wall Street).
提醒一下，本週稍早，美國銀行定量分析師兼首席股票策略師薩維塔‧薩勃拉曼尼亞
(Savita Subramanian)解釋了她為何預計標准普爾500指數(s & p 500)將下跌10% ，收於
3800點的原因，這使得美國銀行成為華爾街最悲觀的銀行。
Looking ahead, Hartnett says that after the remarkable rebound in everyghing
in the past year, "there is only one more V to go": V-shape in stock prices,
housing, PMIs, EPS, GDP now being followed by V-shape in inflation, just look
at lumber prices...
展望未來，哈特尼特表示，在過去一年的每一次顯著反彈之後，“只剩下一個 v 型走勢
”: 股價呈 v 型走勢，房地產、 pmi、 EPS、 GDP 現在僅剩下是通脹會呈 v 型走勢
，看看木材價格就知道了... ..。
備註:他的意思是原物料與物價即將飆漲
The coming inflection point in the economy will be followed by monetary
policy (in 2020...195 cuts & 5 hikes; in 2021...5 cuts & 12 hikes).
Elsewhere, as the BofA CIO notes, "Vaccine = Wall St inflation, mobility =
Main St inflation", while US banks breaking higher vs EM banks reflects
secular turn in rates & inflation.
在經濟即將到來的第一個轉折點，貨幣政策將緊隨其後(2020年... 195次調降和5次上調;
2021年... 5次調降和12次上調)。在其它方面，正如美國銀行首席投資官(CIO)所指出的
那樣，“疫苗 = 華爾街通脹，流動性 = 主要通脹”，而美國銀行相對於新興市場銀行調
高利率反映了利率和通脹的長期。
Hartnett then predicts that the next surge in yields/taper tantrum awaits new
highs in oil (e.g. Brent >$70/b), new floor for AHE (average hourly earnings)
of 3.5% YoY, and vaccination success triggering faster global reopening &
human mobility. Hartnett sticks with 2021 asset mix reco of
commodities/volatility>equities/bonds.
哈特尼特隨後預測，下一波殖利率激增與貨幣緊縮恐慌在等待石油價格再創新高(比如布倫特原油價
格原油 > 70美元/桶) ，AHE (平均每小時收入)達到3.5% 的新底線，疫苗接種的成功引發更
快的全球重新開放和人口流動。哈特尼特堅持2021年商品/波動性資產 > 股票/
債券。
備註:taper tantrum是對貨幣緊縮的恐慌，意思就是分析師認為今年震盪會加大、
商品會漲的機率大於股票和債券
Finally, with regard to what happens next, going back to Hartnett's key
observation this has not only been the third fastest annual surge in stocks
in history...
最後，關於接下來會發生什麼，回到哈特尼特的關鍵觀察，這不僅是歷史上第三快的年度
股市飆升..。
... but also a 2.3-sigma move above average. Such outsized moves have unhappy
endings: as BofA's Savita Subramanian calculated "two+ standard deviation
moves have only happened four other times since 1928, with losses occurring
over the next 12 months in three of the four cases, and the average 12 month
return of -4%.
也比平均值高出2.3個sigma(標準差)。這些過大的舉動都有不幸的結局: 據美國銀行的 Savita
Subramanian 計算，“自1928年以來，2 + 標准差的舉動只發生過4次，其中3次在未來12
個月內出現虧損，12個月的平均回報率為 -4% 。
備註:表示統計數據顯示未來1年股市會出現虧損
In other words, as BofA concludes, the current moves implies a projected
12-month price return of -4%, all else equal... although it isn't because
never in the history of humanity has the market been injected with so much
central bank liquidity as it is now.
換句話說，正如美國銀行總結的那樣，目前的走勢意味著，在其他條件不變的情況下，預
計12個月的價格回報率為 -4% ... ... 不過，這是因為在人類歷史上，市場從未像
現在這樣被注入如此多的央行流動性。
備註:意思就是雖然過去股市出現這麼這樣的統計數據，但這次有FED瘋狂的流動性，
所以未必可以與昔日相同這樣判斷，給自己一個台階下，以免爆漲被打臉。
※ 引述《maomaoder (毛毛的)》之銘言：
: 來源: ZeroHedge
: BY TYLER DURDEN
: FRIDAY, APR 16, 2021 - 03:20 PM
: 內容:
: For his weekly Flow Show report, BofA's Michael Hartnett picked a remarkable front cover chart, one showing that the 76% jump in US stocks from Mar’20 lows is now the 3rd largest YoY move in the past 100 years.
: Among the factors making this possible was the return of the record stock market mania, which in the last week manifested itself in another round of huge inflows into stocks ($25.6bn) bonds, ($17.9bn), all funded by an even bigger ($47.3bn) outflow from of cash, the largest in 4 months. Among the "flows to know" according to Hartnett, there were strong inflows to IG bonds ($9.8bn) & EM equities ($5.1bn), plus tech inflows resume ($1.6bn); inflow to global stocks past 5 months ($602bn) exceeds inflow in
: prior 12 years ($452bn)…note US corporate buybacks ($6.3tn over past 12 years).
: Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833 million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit optimism.
: As a reminder, earlier this week BofA quant and chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian explained her reasons why she expects the S&P500 to drop 10% and close the year at 3,800 making BofA tied for the most pessimistic banks on Wall Street).
: Looking ahead, Hartnett says that after the remarkable rebound in everyghing in the past year, "there is only one more V to go": V-shape in stock prices, housing, PMIs, EPS, GDP now being followed by V-shape in inflation, just look at lumber prices...
: .... tighter labor market (almost half of all small businesses are unable to fund workers, as we discussed yesterday);
: The coming inflection point in the economy will be followed by monetary policy (in 2020...195 cuts & 5 hikes; in 2021...5 cuts & 12 hikes). Elsewhere, as the BofA CIO notes, "Vaccine = Wall St inflation, mobility = Main St inflation", while US banks breaking higher vs EM banks reflects secular turn in rates & inflation.
: Hartnett then predicts that the next surge in yields/taper tantrum awaits new highs in oil (e.g. Brent >$70/b), new floor for AHE (average hourly earnings) of 3.5% YoY, and vaccination success triggering faster global reopening & human mobility. Hartnett sticks with 2021 asset mix reco of commodities/volatility>equities/bonds.
: Finally, with regard to what happens next, going back to Hartnett's key observation this has not only been the third fastest annual surge in stocks in history...
: ... but also a 2.3-sigma move above average. Such outsized moves have unhappy endings: as BofA's Savita Subramanian calculated "two+ standard deviation moves have only happened four other times since 1928, with losses occurring over the next 12 months in three of the four cases, and the average 12 month return of -4%.
: In other words, as BofA concludes, the current moves implies a projected 12-month price return of -4%, all else equal... although it isn't because never in the history of humanity has the market been injected with so much central bank liquidity as it is now.
: https://bit.ly/2QviVGT
: 心得: 無
: