Re: [討論] 義大利本日新增627死

作者: SkyMirage (Stardust)   2020-03-21 01:50:16
※ 引述《UIOP7945 (~"~)》之銘言:
: https://youtu.be/qgylp3Td1Bw
: 死亡總數直上4032
: 新增5986 案例 總數47021
: 康復新增689 總數5129
: https://i.imgur.com/DfYMMas.jpg
: 慘
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10217457458131246
今天新增 5986,已經來到先前「悲觀劇本」中模擬的高峰值,希望未來幾天不要再往上
了,讓確診總人數維持在十萬就好。
有興趣的人請參考我上週 (3/10) 的義韓疫情分析:
https://www.facebook.com/SkyMirage/posts/10217369089322081
下面貼出從 3/10 發表模擬曲線後,義大利的每日新增確診數,以及模型的預估值,供大
家參考:
Latest update of Italy. 47,021 total confirmed cases by Mar. 20
3/10, 977 cases (predict 1,690 case in Pes. scenario)
3/11, 2313 cases (predict 2,027 case in Pes. scenario)
3/12, 2651 cases (predict 2,413 case in Pes. scenario)
3/13, 2547 cases (predict 2,847 case in Pes. scenario)
3/14, 3497 cases (predict 3,322 case in Pes. scenario)
3/15, 3590 cases (predict 3,829 case in Pes. scenario)
3/16, 3233 cases (predict 4,346 case in Pes. scenario)
3/17, 3526 cases (predict 4,848 case in Pes. scenario)
3/18, 4207 cases (predict 5,302 case in Pes. scenario)
3/19, 5322 cases (predict 5,668 case in Pes. scenario)
3/20, 5986 cases (predict 5,911 case in Pes. scenario)
3/21, ____ cases (predict 6,000 case in Pes. scenario)
3/22, ____ cases (predict 5,991 case in Pes. scenario)
3/23, ____ cases (predict 5,669 case in Pes. scenario)
3/24, ____ cases (predict 5,272 case in Pes. scenario)
3/25, ____ cases (predict 4,765 case in Pes. scenario)
3/26, ____ cases (predict 4,192 case in Pes. scenario)
3/27, ____ cases (predict 3,597 case in Pes. scenario)
3/28, ____ cases (predict 3,020 case in Pes. scenario)
3/29, ____ cases (predict 2,487 case in Pes. scenario)
3/30, ____ cases (predict 2,016 case in Pes. scenario)
3/31, ____ cases (predict 1,612 case in Pes. scenario)

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