剛剛看到一篇paper
以目前情況看
恐怕將成為世界瘟疫
PDF Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/vi
ew
Archive：https://archive.is/XCERo
主要總結：
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection to be s
ignificantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indic
ating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for i
nfections to stop increasing.?
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identi
fied , indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also refl
ecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for
this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authoriti
es in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases i
n Wuhan and other areas.
If no change in control or transmission happens,When we expect further outbre
aks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be
exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. in 14 days’ tim
e (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan
to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We
predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shangh
ai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2
020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of impor
ting infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, an
d South Korea.
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikel
y to be effective in halting transmission across China ; with a 99% effective
reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be red
uced by 24.9% on 4 February
希望蔡政府要果斷一點……

扭扭捏捏，要禁不禁的，沒有要選舉了，能不能果斷一點？好像看不到pdf.

感染力無庸置疑一定散播開的，看看那精美的武漢行程，他們那一團還沒禁止隔離呢~現在只能祈禱嚴重度不會太高

太強硬又有550萬人要亂了

正要寫XDDhttp://bit.ly/2RKNx4d 手動分流另外這不算peer review過的paper，偏像是他們自己做的預測

https://reurl.cc/W4naKL2019-nCoV感染臨床處置.pdf

幫大家提煉一下精華 " target="_blank" rel="nofollow">

模式不變的話 2/4台灣六例，但我覺得一定不准" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQnMM-YNJw8&feature=youtu.be

阿看錯了，不是六例，對不起大家

那個備忘錄講死亡率4%,感覺應該是有所本再一陣子各國案例變多,應該就可以一窺實際情況了

世衛組織跟白癡沒兩樣，緊急事件不快發

V WarsI am legend

世衛就中共在管的，表現得跟中共一樣爛

550萬人覺得美國流感比武漢肺炎嚴重啊==

流感有藥，肺炎沒藥啊

who改名成cho算了還信中共的官方報告根本笑話

很怕會變成1918西班牙大流感那樣席捲全球恐怕是一次大規模的「天擇」人類應該要團結起來，已經是物種間的戰爭了

現在我們看西班牙流感會覺得不可能再發生，那是因為我們現在有流感疫苗有克流感，但冠狀病毒沒有疫苗沒有藥物，真的要再次發生西班牙流感那樣的殺人瘟疫了嗎？

1918年西班牙流感後來莫名就消失在人群中了查了一下歷史，原來流感病毒1933年才被研究出來人類較不擔心流感不是流感不可怕，是已經認識、知道怎樣處理能做該做的都做了，剩下看命不過冠狀病毒是新的問題，不是有了冠狀病毒流感就消失阿

人類才是世界最大的瘟疫

所以說西班牙大流感那次是天擇

這年齡層表示：你說什麼天擇... X

世衛總幹事衣索比亞籍的，早就是中共的形狀