https://nyp.st/2MHZzqh
Statistical revolution is killing the next generation of MLB fans
By Joel Sherman
The smart folks are right. But it is wronging baseball.
那群聰明人是對的，但是對棒球是個傷害。
They are right that wins are a bad gauge of what kind of season a
pitcher had, as Jacob deGrom is exemplifying this year.
如同 Jacob deGrom 今年的表現，用勝投來評價投手的確是不精確的。
They are right that batting average reveals far less about a
hitter’s skills than 10 other metrics and that RBIs and runs
scored are so highly dependent on the team around you as to not be
as insightful into an individual as once believed.
隨便抓 10 種數據，都比用打擊率評價打者有用。打點和得分和隊友高度相
關，無法反映出自身的實力。
I agree with it all. Yet, I believe part of the decline in passion
for the major leagues is mixed into how we view these numbers.
這些我都同意，但是我們分析這些數字的方法，同時削減了對MLB的熱情。
For we keep telling one generation of fans they are dumb for
caring about 20 wins or .300 batting averages or 100 RBIs, and the
next generation of fans doesn’t care about them. But what has
risen in its place to keep interest in players and teams and
seasons?
我們一直和下一代說20勝，3成打擊率和100分打點數據多沒意義，他們也逐
漸忽視這些數據，
It used to be that even if your team was out of it, you could
still be engaged daily by a favorite player pursuing 20 wins or
100 runs or 100 RBIs. Baseball is novelistic, you turn the pages
daily and the rewards are generally at the end of a long,
challenging commitment.
以前即使你支持的隊伍出局了，你仍然期待你最愛的球員追逐20勝，得100分
或100打點。棒球就像小說，每天看過幾頁後，最終得到一個刺激的結尾。
As a kid, I was such a huge Pete Rose and Cincinnati Reds fan that
I could not wait until the paper arrived each morning so I could
calculate how much closer he was each season to 200 hits. I can
remember my father, a lifelong Yankees fan, happy on the final day
of the 1997 season that Bernie Williams hit a solo homer to reach
exactly 100 RBIs. My dad felt he had taken both the career-long
and season-long journey to accomplishment with a player he liked.
我小時候是紅人和 Pete Rose 的死忠球迷。每天我都等不及報紙送來，讓我
可以計算 Pete Rose 離 200 安多遠。我也記得我終身洋基迷的爸爸，在
Bernie Williams 於 1997 球季最終戰打出全壘打，剛好達到100分打點時有
多開心。
But as these numbers have been pooh-poohed — again, if I ran a
team I would pooh-pooh them, too — we have lost a thread that
connected eras. What are fans living and dying with individually
these days? Is anyone tracking if their favorite has exceed five
wins above replacement or if their most beloved pitcher had an
xFIP that has dropped below 3.00?
雖然若我自己經營一個球隊，肯定會忽視這些數據。但是當這些數據被唾棄
後，我們失去對過去成就的連結。現在的球迷如何追蹤球星？還有人注意他
們喜愛的球員WAR超過5，或著是xFIP小於3?
I do think the pace of play is too slow and that there are not
enough balls in play as ailments to the current game. But I also
believe statistics have been the backbone of this sport. And
between the Steroid Era and the Metric Generation, we have
weakened that backbone, even as more revealing stats have been
introduced.
我的確同意現在比賽時間過長，而且球在場內的時間太少是個毛病。我也相
信統計是棒球的精神，但是從禁藥年代到統計世代，即使提出更多的統計，
這種精神也逐漸衰退。
It used to be if a player topped 20 or 30, but certainly 40 or 50
homers, we hailed it and remembered it. Now, the first instinct is
skepticism, not exhilaration. Anticipation used to come with
career marks of 300 or 400, but especially 500 or 600 homers.
Albert Pujols reached 600 homers last year attended by more of a
pin drop than ceremony. Pujols exceeded 3,000 hits this season,
Adrian Beltre did so last year, but did it in an age in which we
know collective times on base is more valuable than just the
accumulation of hits. So where was the attention and euphoria?
以前我們會為一個球員打了20,30甚至到40,50轟歡呼。但現在我們會先質疑
這個數字。我們也會期待生涯全壘打到 300,400 甚至 500,600 等整數。但
是去年 Albert Pujols 的 600 轟反應只比鴉雀無聲好一些。Pujols 本季達
到 3000 安，Adrian Beltre 去年也達到，但是不是因為我們在上壘數
(TOB)比安打數據重要的時代，讓我們失去專注和熱情?
There was a time that many fans could rattle off all the members
of the 500-homer, 3,000-hit and 300-win club with the same
efficiency as the names of their own children. Now? Maybe that is
the internet and having the answers a mouse click away and, thus,
no need to commit it to stored human memory. But a lot of this is
lost passion based on drugs having soiled accomplishments and
smart folks doing the equivalent of patting heads and saying, “
Enjoy your archaic stats,” and making those who still cite them
feel like fools. No one wants to work to be a fan or feel stupid.
以前許多球迷閉眼就可以說出 500 轟，3000 安和 300 勝俱樂部成員，和唸
出自己小孩的名字一樣簡單。現在呢？或許是網際網路上點一點就可以查到
，沒多少人會去記憶這些事。而且隨著禁藥讓數據打上星號，還有聰明人拍
拍球迷的頭說 “享受你的老派數據吧”，讓大家覺得這樣很蠢而不再繼續做
這些事。
Due to how many fingers are on each hand and how many we have in
total, we like numbers that end in fives and 10s. This is fans’
leisure time. They want 20 wins, 30 homers, .300 averages or
career totals of 300 wins, 500 homers and, yep, a .300 average.
Easily calculable and understandable, simple to follow over long
seasons and lengthy careers.
因為手指的數量，我們喜歡5或10結尾的整數。球迷閒暇時間喜歡追蹤 20 勝
，30 轟，3成打擊率和生涯 300 勝，500 轟，當然也有生涯3成打擊率。容
易計算也容易理解，方便我們在漫長的球季和生涯追蹤。
I just don’t see the day coming when fans are going to hang on
players’ career amassing of ERA-plus or weighted runs
created-plus. And, again: I agree that those are more revelatory.
But we have taken away one language, replaced it with another and
failed to appreciate what that change (as valuable as it might be
in evaluation) would mean to both the history of the game and fan
passion for it.
我不希望有一天球迷緊緊抱住 ERA+ 和 wRC+。我當然同意這些數據很重要，
但我們用另一種東西取代共通語言，卻不能讓球迷用他欣賞過去的比賽。(譯
註：這裡感覺翻得不太順)
We know now that it is not worthwhile to extend a pitcher into
workloads never before ventured into by that individual to pursue
a no-hitter, and we even have told fans no-hitters are kind of
luck-based and not that sexy because they come with walks or
errors. But hearing someone was working on a no-hitter used to be
a reason to flip on a baseball game. To care. Now, we tell them, “
Nah, don’t care.” It is like telling moviegoers to only care
about Oscar candidates and you are a fool if you invest in the
latest Kevin Hart or Will Ferrell film.
我們知道讓球員投球量超過自身極限，以追求無安打並不划算，我們甚至告
訴球迷因為有保送和失誤，無安打並不完美。我們通常會因為球員有機會達
成無安打而關注比賽，但現在我們說 “歐，別太在意” 就像是我們告訴電
影迷只要關注奧斯卡入圍者，追蹤 Kevin Hart, Will Ferrell 的電影很蠢
。
If I ran a team, I would pull a starter who was beginning to run
in the red, I would use reliever after reliever to attack games
because numbers show that is most effective, I would not re-sign
older players that even my fans have come to love because the flow
charts show imminent decline, I would not care about complete
games or .300 batting averages or 300 wins in any vital way while
coldly deciding what is best, today, for my team. It all makes
sense.
如果我經營一支球隊，我會在先發投手快沒力時換下他。而且因為數據顯示
這樣比較有效，我也會用多個短局數後援投手。即使是球迷喜愛他，我也不
會簽衰退的老將。我會冷血地做出最佳決定，不在意完投，3成打擊率或是
300勝，對我的球隊來說，這些點都是合理的。
Unfortunately, it also is hurting the game.
但不幸的，這些做法也在傷害比賽。