http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/9/12/613014/profiling-tim-lincecum
Profiling Tim Lincecum
by dixieflatline on Sep 12, 2008 9:31 AM PDT in PITCHf/x Work
分析林盲腸
While profiling CC Sabathia early this week, I mentioned that Sabathia
recently overtook Tim Lincecum as the pitcher who has accrued the most
pitcher abuse points this season (which Lincecum has now taken back after his
last start). I concluded that Sabathia really didn't seem phased by a lot of
innings or some large pitch count games. A reader who is an avid Giants fan
was interested in a similar look at Tim Lincecum to see how he is holding up
in September. There are reasons to be concerned about the heavy workload
Lincecum has received this year in comparison to a pitcher like Sabathia.
First, Lincecum is 24 and not yet past the injury nexus. Second, Lincecum
has already thrown more than twenty more innings than he had thrown last year
and will likely end up shattering the 200 innings pitched level (he is at 198
2/3 right now). Before we dive in to Lincecum's wear pattern let's look at a
little deeper into what makes him so successful.
上禮拜分析C.C. Sabathia的時候，我發現Sabathia最近超越了Tim Lincecum，
成為濫用投手指數最高的投手 (但上次先發林盲腸又討回來了 囧)。 也許Sabathia
負荷不了如此多的局數，與高投球量的比賽。一個熱心的巨人球迷想看到關於林盲腸
的類似分析，以預期他九月的表現。林盲腸跟Sabathia比起來，他今年的高投球量有
幾個理由： 1.林盲腸才24歲而且沒有傷病史 2.林盲腸已經比去年多投了20幾局，投
球局數將達到200局的等級 (現在198又2/3局)。我們在看林盲腸的消耗圖之前，先來
看看他為何會如此成功。
Tim Lincecum Movement 2007
原圖：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27503/Tim_Lincecum.gif
垂 20┌──────────────────────── o Fastball
直 │ x Curve
位 15├ o oo oo + Slider
移 │ ooooo oo oo o * Change
︵ 10├ o oo oo*o*oo*ooo o
英 │ o oooo *o*o**ooo
吋 5├ * o*oo*o *o**+ ++ + │
︶ │ * ** * *** *+ *+ +++ │
0├ * *** * *++x++xx │
│ * x+ +xx x xx │
-5├ xxx xxx xxxx x │
│ xxx xxx xx │
-10├ xx xxx │
│ │
-15├ │
│ │
-20└──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
水平位移（英吋）
Tim Lincecum right now is a four pitch pitcher; fastball, change-up, slider,
and curve. When I profiled Lincecum before the season began I noted that his
fastball was a four seamer because of the huge vertical "rise" he gets with
that pitch and the relatively small horizontal movement. It turns out I was
wrong and this is actually Lincecum’s two seamer! I have never seen a
pitcher throw a two seamer that fast, and with that movement. It is my
understanding that Tim can’t control his four seamer so you wonder what kind
of velocity and movement if he did throw a four seamer. Two seamer or four
seamer the important thing here is he is throwing it around 95 MPH which
obviously is awesome.
Tim Lincecum現在擁有四種武器：速球、變速、滑球、與曲球。當我在季前分析
林盲腸的時候，我以為他的速球是四縫線。因為它有巨大的垂直上升位移，與相對較
小的水平位移。結果我錯了，這其實是林盲腸的二縫線！我從沒看過那麼快的二縫線
，而且有那種噁心的位移。我想也許林盲腸無法精確控制他的四縫線速球，當他真的
投四縫線時，天知道會有怎樣的球速和位移。 不管二縫還四縫，他都能投到95mph，
這顯然是驚死人的球速。
Lincecum curve is a very hard curve thrown at over 80 MPH but he still gets
above average movement with the pitch. That is a deadly combination, most
curveballs that have that much movement have to be thrown slower so there is
more risk that a batter will identify the pitch in flight. This one two
punch really reminds me of Ben Sheets who also throws mid-90’s with a very
hard curve. Sheets’ curve is a little more 12 to 6 while Lincecum’s is a
little more 11 to 5 but both clearly get the job done. Because of the extra
horizontal movement Lincecum’s curve is especially tough on right handed
batters who have to deal with a ball that is dropping fast and tailing away
from them.
林盲腸的暴力曲球可以超過80mph，但仍有高於平均的位移。這是一個致命組合！
通常曲球要有如此大的位移，就必須投慢一點，但也增加了打者辨識它的風險。這讓
我想起Ben Sheets，同樣擁有mid-90的速球跟強力曲球，就像雙重重拳一般。Sheets
的曲球是12-6，林盲腸則比較像11-5，但同樣都能達成任務。因為林盲腸的曲球還有
額外的水平位移，對右打者而言會更難應付：同時要面對急速的下墜，且跑向外角。
The thing that separates Lincecum’s stuff from Sheets is his change-up.
While Sheets has been throwing a change-up more this year he gets very
little speed differential with the pitch. Lincecum however generates more
than ten MPH difference between his fastball and his change. That is very
good and puts that pitch near elite levels. Lincecum had just started
throwing a change-up in the pros so this is somewhat of a new pitch for him
but I really liked what I saw last year and wanted him to throw it more.
Lincecum has done just that this year especially to left handed batters and
he is throwing it as a strikeout pitch. Because his curve isn’t quite 12 to
6 it moves in to left handed batters and tends to end up down and in which
is the happy zone for many lefties. Enter Lincecum’s change-up which moves
down and away from lefties with a huge speed differential. This is the
perfect weapon for him and he is using it perfectly right now
林盲腸跟Sheets的stuff最大的差別，是他的變速球。今年Sheets投的比較多的
那顆變速球，速差並沒有很大。 但林盲腸在他的速球和變速球之間，卻能製造超過
10mph的速差。這實在棒透了，是一個精英級的球路。林盲腸是進入職業生涯才開始
投變速球的，但去年讓我看得很蘇胡，我希望他多投一點。 林盲腸常拿它來對付左
打者，當作三振的決勝球。 因為他的曲球不是直直的12-6，會往左打者移動，有時
甚至掉進他們內角低的甜蜜點。 他的變速球則能往左打者的外角低移動，且有銳利
的速差。這是林盲腸的絕佳武器，他目前也用得很稱手。
The slider is a brand new pitch which he worked on in the off season and is
different from the slider he threw in college. He began the year throwing
more sliders but as the year has gone on he has been using the pitch less and
less. It is a hard slider checking in at around 85 MPH and actually hardly
moves at all with around two inches of horizontal and vertical break. I
generally am not a fan of a slider with such little movement and Lincecum’s
slider is no exception. When a slider doesn’t have more horizontal movement
the pitcher can’t start the pitch on the outside corner and then move it out
of the strike zone. When he does throw the slider it often is on a two
strike count which again I wouldn’t do too much of as he isn’t getting the
movement needed to make this a truly effective strikeout pitch. I wouldn’t
mind him throwing the slider early in the count in the strike zone as hitters
gear up for the fastball. That said, Lincecum is very rarely using this
pitch right now so really it doesn’t make a big deal.
滑球則是他季後才練出的全新球路，跟他大學時代的滑球不同。今年一開始他投
了比較多滑球，但隨著球季進行，已經越來越減少了。 這是一顆以85mph進壘的強力
滑球，且同時有2英吋的水平和垂直位移。 我通常不會迷上位移這麼少的滑球，即使
是林盲腸的也不例外。當缺乏足夠的水平位移時，投手就無法把它鎖定在外角的角落
，再依靠球的變化移出好球帶。他通常在兩好球時投滑球，但依然不能成為有效的三
振球種。我寧願他在一開始打者期待速球時，就把滑球往好球帶丟。反正林盲腸滑球
也投的不多，所以管他的。
林盲腸的放球點
There is one more thing I want to mention before getting to Lincecum’s wear
pattern. The other thing that we can see with PITCHf/x but can’t yet really
break down is variability in release point. Previously, I have noted
pitchers who have an exact release point which they stick with all the time
and other pitchers who really vary their release point dropping their arm
down on occasion. Lincecum definitely falls into the second category with a
huge variation in release point of almost two feet.
在看林盲腸的消耗圖之前，還有一件事我想提一下。我們能從PITCHf/x的資料看出
，卻無法準確分析他放球點的變化。之前我說有些投手擁有準確的放球點，且隨時都是
固定的。另外一些投手則會改變放球點，並依需要降低他們的手臂。林盲腸很顯然是屬
於第二種投手：他放球點的差異可以大到2英呎。
放球點的圖：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27506/Tim_Lincecum4.gif
Notice that as the release point widens it also drops. This means that it is
a change in arm angle and not the pitcher moving from side to side on the
mound. A 95 MPH fastball is rather unfair in and of itself but when you team
that with not being certain where the ball is coming from and it is no wonder
why hitters have no chance. Lincecum tends not to drop down as much when
throwing his curve (and slider) but there is still plenty of variation even
there. I haven’t run the numbers on this yet but my guess is a large
variation in release point helps the pitcher. How much of a help I can’t
say. The other issue is if you have such a wide variation in release point
what does that say about your mechanics? PITCHf/x says absolutely nothing
about what is going on before the ball is thrown and this is an area that I
know little about so I will leave that to other to discuss but something I
did want to point out.
Ok finally on to Lincecum’s wear pattern.
注意他的放球點不只變寬而且變低。這表示他改變了手臂的角度，而不是投手在
投手丘上的移動。 一顆95mph的速球，而且還不知道是從哪裡出手的，難怪打者連摸
都摸不到了。投曲球時(滑球也是)，林盲腸的出手點不會降低那麼多，但依然變化十
足。我沒有詳實地分析這些數據，但我猜放球點的改變是投手的一大利器！是怎樣的
投球機制，才會造成放球點如此大的變化呢？從PITCHf/x數據顯然看不出來，這也不
是我的專長，我只是想提出來討論而已。
好啦，終於要看林盲腸的消耗圖了。
Lincecum Fastball Wear Pattern 2008
原圖：http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/27509/TL_fb_2008.gif
平 105┌──────────────────────── ˙ 球速
均 ├ │˙│˙ │˙│ ││ │ │ ˙ 水平位移
球 ├ ˙│˙│ ˙│˙││˙˙ ˙││˙│ │ │˙ 垂直位移
速 100├ │ │ ││ │˙˙││││˙˙│˙ │˙││˙ ┐ 10 平
︵ ├ ˙ │ ˙ ││ │˙ ││ ││˙│˙˙│ ┤ 均
英 ├ ││˙││││ │ │˙│││ ││˙│ │││ ┤ 位
哩 95├ ˙│˙│˙˙│˙│˙│˙˙˙│˙˙│ │˙˙˙│ ┤ 5 移
︶ ├ │ │˙││˙│˙│ │││˙││˙│˙│││˙ ┤ ︵
├ │ │ │ │ │˙│││ │ ┤ 英
90├ │ │˙ ││││˙˙ │ ┤ 0 吋
├ ││ ˙│ │ │││˙││˙˙│˙│││˙ ┤ ︶
├ ˙˙││ │˙│˙│˙˙˙│ ˙││˙│ ˙│ ┤
85├ │││˙˙ │˙│˙│││ │ │ │ ┤-5
├ ˙ │││ │ │ ┤
├ │ ˙ ┤
80├ │ ┤-10
├ ┤
├ ┤
75└──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘-15
80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
天數
For an explanation of how to read this plot check here. Because of the wide
variation in release point his horizontal and vertical movements have really
been bouncing around all year. Also notice the large spread in movement
especially horizontally. This makes perfect sense as the largest spread in
his release point is horizontally as well. Notice that while there doesn’t
seem to be much of a trend in the vertical movement up or down throughout the
year there is a trend to less horizontal movement. It isn’t a perfect line
but there is definitely a trend.
因為放球點的差異很大，他的水平和垂直位移也呈現劇烈跳動。特別注意水平
位移的廣大分佈，這證明了他的放球點也是以水平的改變居多。雖然垂直位移一年
來並沒有顯著變化，但水平位移卻有逐漸減少的趨勢。雖然不是完美的曲線，但這
趨勢確實存在。
Movement is nice but the thing that makes Tim Lincecum’s fastball so good is
the velocity. Lincecum’s velocity has been more consistent in game that
either his horizontal or vertical movement which we would expect looking at
his release point. Here too there is definitely a trend and this time it is
pointing down. In the first few months of the season, Lincecum’s fastball
average above 95 MPH in all but a handful of games. In the last month, none
of his starts have resulted in an average fastball above 95 MPH. This trend
is small, only one to two MPH, but it is noticeable and slightly worrying
combined with the decrease in horizontal movement.
Tim Lincecum的速球尾勁很讚，但讓它成為頂級球路是因為球速。雖然他的水平
和垂直位移要依據放手點而定，實戰球速卻能始終保持高峰。球速也有一個向下沉淪
的趨勢：在球季開始的幾個月，林盲腸除了屈指可數的幾場比賽外，速球的均速都能
飆破95mph。最後的幾個月，卻沒有半場均速超過95mph。這趨勢很微小，可能只有一
到二英哩的差距，但混雜了水平位移的減少，是值得注意且令人擔憂的。
Those two variables really tend to go hand in hand for most pitchers. When
the release point is up, the velocity is up, and the horizontal movement is
down. When the release point is lower everything else is reversed. You
likely have heard the saying that a pitcher has traded some speed for
movement and this is exactly what they are talking about. Here, Lincecum’s
horizontal movement is down and so is his velocity. It could be that if
Lincecum was throwing with the same movement he had in the beginning of the
year now that his velocity would be even lower than it is now.
大多數的投手都能掌握兩個變因：當放球點提高，球速也會上升，但水平位移則
減少。如果降低放球點，這兩個變因就會反過來。你可能聽過，某個投手犧牲了一些
球速，換來更好的位移。現在，林盲腸的球速和水平位移都下降了。如果他想要投出
季初那樣的位移，甚至球速還必須進一步下降。
While I did want to point that out I do want to mention that these wear
patterns are very new and no league average has been established yet. It
could be that an average starter would tend to lose more on his fastball as
the year goes on than Lincecum has. Also, his last four starts have been
very consistent velocity wise so it is very possible that thing are
stabilizing a tick above 94 MPH which still puts him near the top of the
league velocity wise.
我想提的是，這種消耗圖還很新，聯盟平均值還沒有建立起來。也許先發投手隨
著球季的進行，平均會比林盲腸失去更多速球的優勢。他的最後四場先發也能維持穩
定的均速。94mph的均速依舊讓他站在聯盟球速金字塔的頂端。
In conclusion, Tim Lincecum is truly a great pitcher who is a lot more than
just his fastball. His off speed pitches don’t get a lot of press but his
curveball and change-up are both plus pitches at worst. Lincecum has thrown
a lot of innings and has gone deep into many games this year and that is
something the Giants should monitor very closely. It does appear that
Lincecum has lost a little heat on the fastball but it isn’t like he is
falling off a cliff so I don’t think it is anything major but something to
pay attention to.
結論是：林盲腸是個不僅只有速球的偉大投手。雖然慢速球沒有給打者造成太大
的壓力，但至少他的曲球和變速球都是頂級的。林盲腸吃掉了大量的局數，且常常投
到比賽的後段，這是巨人隊需要密切觀察注意的。雖然林盲腸的速球失去了一些球威
，但還不至於讓他從懸崖掉下來。沒什麼重大問題，但的確有幾個值得觀察的地方。