※ [本文轉錄自 Gossiping 看板 #1V_53JLe ]
作者: MaoZeDong (毛澤東) 看板: Gossiping
標題: [爆卦] 英國醫學雜志質疑輝瑞和莫得納疫苗造假
時間: Mon Jan 11 21:21:20 2021
英國醫學雜志（British Medical Journal，BMJ）是世界著名的四大綜合性醫學期刊之一
BMJ的副主編Peter Doshi質疑輝瑞和莫得納的新冠疫苗實驗數據造假，他的文章刊發在BMJ
的網站上：https://tinyurl.com/y62nggy4
懶人包：輝瑞和莫得納的疫苗數據，沒有計算上擁有新冠肺炎癥狀、但PCR（核酸）檢測
呈陰性的病例，如果計算上這些疑似病例，那么防護力只有19%~29%，遠低于輝瑞和莫得
納宣稱的90%以上。
Peter Doshi: Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—we need more
details and the raw data
Peter Doshi：輝瑞和莫得納疫苗的“95%有效”——我們需要更多細節和原始數據
……
“Suspected covid-19”
疑似新冠癥狀
All attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported
170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo
groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “su
spected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confir
med. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 tota
l cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study populati
on, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
所有的注意力都集中在引人注目的療效結果上：輝瑞公司報告了170例經PCR證實的新冠
病例，分別是疫苗組8例和安慰劑組162例。但是這些數字與“疑似新冠”的癥狀相矛盾，
即那些有新冠癥狀、但未經PCR確診的疾病。根據FDA關于輝瑞疫苗的報告，在整個研究
人群中，共有3410例疑似但未確認的新冠病例，疫苗組有1594例，安慰劑組有1816例
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease
cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Inde
ed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vacc
ine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positiv
e PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—
far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulator
s. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on
Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of
symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains
low: 29% (see footnote).
由于疑似病例比確診病例多20倍，這類疾病不能僅僅因為沒有陽性PCR檢測結果而被忽
視。事實上，這使我們更加迫切地需要了解詳情。粗略估計疫苗對發展中的新冠癥狀的
有效性，無論是否有陽性PCR檢測結果，相對風險降低19%（見腳注），遠遠低于監管機
構規定的50%有效性閾值。即使排除了接種后7天內發生的病例（輝瑞公司疫苗409例，
安慰劑287例），其中應包括由于短期疫苗反應性引起的大部分癥狀，疫苗效力仍然很
低，只有29%（見腳注）。