1.媒體來源:
Market Watch 市場觀察
2.完整新聞標題:
What satellite images reveal about China’s economy
衛星照片揭示中國真實經濟狀況
3.完整新聞內文:
Study of night-time lights shows China’s economy growing faster than
official data
對中國夜間燈光的研究顯示中國經濟增長速度快于官方數據
Chinese economic data has a bad reputation for accuracy, and it’s oft
en said to be overstated as China’s government, particularly at the p
rovincial level, tries to burnish its reputation.
中國經濟數據以不準確而文明。中國政府常被認為夸大經濟數據以提高自己的聲
譽。
But three economists, including two from the New York Fed, say the pro
blem may actually be the opposite — that official Chinese economic da
ta understates performance from the world’s second-largest economy.
但三位經濟學家，其中兩位來自紐約聯邦儲備銀行，他們表示實際情況與上述說
法恰恰相反。中國官方公布的經濟數據對世界第二大經濟體的真實表現是有些低
估的。
The research paper, from the New York Fed’s Hunter Clark and Maxim Pi
nkovskiy, as well as Columbia’s Xavier Sala-i-Martin, flies in the fa
ce of conventional wisdom. And the authors rely on an unusual indicato
r to measure Chinese performance — satellite-recorded nighttime light
s.
這三位經濟學家分別是紐約聯邦儲備銀行經濟學家Hunter Clark和Maxim Pinkov
skiy，以及哥倫比亞大學經濟學教授Xavier Sala-i-Martin。他們共同撰寫的研
究論文與所謂的傳統看法截然不同。他們正在利用一種非同尋常的“指標”來衡
量中國經濟的表現，那就是衛星記錄的夜間燈光數據。
Data on nighttime lights is publicly available, as it’s maintained by
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Other studies ha
ve pointed out the power of nighttime lights as a proxy for economic p
erformance, for example by looking at the difference between North and
South Korea, a sample of African villages as well as the fluctuations
during the Asian financial crisis. Lights are very strongly correlate
d with measures of economic activity both in terms of levels and growt
h rates, they say.
這些與夜間燈光有關的數據由美國國家海洋與大氣管理局(NOAA)負責維護并對公
眾開放。在此之前，已經有不少研究指出，夜間燈光的強弱與所在地區的經濟活
動存在著非常明顯的對應關系，例如通過它們能夠顯示朝鮮和韓國之間的經濟差
距、非洲村莊的樣本以及亞洲金融危機期間該地區的經濟波動起伏狀況等。研究
人員表示，無論是從經濟發展水平還是增長速度上來看，夜間燈光都與所在地區
的經濟活動存在極其密切的聯系。
The findings suggest the Chinese economy is doing well. “We see that
our methodology predicts Chinese [gross domestic product] growth to ha
ve been lower than official estimates before the crisis of 2008, to ha
ve experienced a shallower decline in 2008 and a stronger recovery in
2009 and 2010, and to have stabilized at a higher level after 2011,”
they said.
在經過一番分析和計算后，這三位經濟學家的發現表明中國經濟正在表現良好。
三位學者表示，“我們的研究方法顯示，在2008年全球金融危機前，中國(GDP)
增速曾慢于官方預測值，然后在2008年經歷(比官方統計)更小幅度的放慢并在
2009年和2010年呈現出(比官方統計)更強勁的復蘇，在2011年后又以(比官方統
計)更高的速度穩定下來”。
They aren’t sure why China would understate its own performance. But
they say it could be that Chinese national accounts understate the gro
wth rate of services, which would increasingly matter as that country’
s economy develops.
盡管無法確定中國低估其本國經濟表現的確切原因，但他們表示這可能是與中國
的統計低估本國服務業的增速有關，隨著中國經濟逐漸發展，服務業將發揮越來
越重要的作用。
As a working paper, it has not been peer reviewed.
目前，這項研究仍在進行中，沒有正式發布。
4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinese-data-is-often-called-faulty-
but-what-if-its-for-being-too-low-2017-04-17
5.備註:
吱吱：WTF？？？！！！