來源：The New York Times
網址：http://tinyurl.com/yccg2oyc
The Key to the Resurgence of Nadal and Federer? Watch Their Second Serves
第二次發球是費納復活的關鍵？
The resurgence of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer this season is all about
turning a liability into an asset.
費納今年的復活的全在於將「負債」變成「資產」。
If tennis were investing, these two would be the master traders of 2017, the
best on tour at taking a losing stock and turning it into a winning one.
如果將網球比喻成投資，費納兩人今年要算是投資大贏家，把賠錢的股票變成賺錢的股
票。
The stock in focus is second serves.
他們買的「股票」主要集中在二發。
Second serves are generally underrated, underperforming and under the radar
when it comes to the discussion of tennis greats. Second serves for most of
the tennis market are a speculative stock, but not for Nadal and Federer.
當在討論網球的偉大球員時，二發的表現被低估，也不是努力的標的，大家也沒有在看
重。二發在網球股票市場裡是投機股，但對費納兩人來說不是。
Nadal, who returned to the No. 1 ranking this week, and Federer, who is
ranked third, have hoarded the Grand Slam singles titles this year and are
among the favorites at the United States Open, which begins on Monday.
納豆在本週登上世界第一，費德勒排名第三，兩人包下今年大滿貫賽的冠軍，而在下星期
一開打的美網，兩人也是被視為熱門。
There is only one serve, return or “under pressure” statistic on the ATP
Tour in which Nadal and Federer are ranked one-two this season: second-serve
points won.
在ATP賽的統計裡面，關於發球的部份，納豆跟費德勒在其中一個項目是排名一跟二：二發
得分。
Nadal has won an impressive 61 percent of his second-serve points this season
to lead the tour. Federer is right behind, having won 60 percent. Each player
’s career average is 57 percent, and Nadal in particular has improved from
last season, when he won 54 percent of his second-serve points.
納豆本季的二發得分機率是61趴領先；費爸是60趴緊追在後。兩人生涯平均是57趴，但是
納豆今年改善很多，去年他的二發得分機率是54趴。
They double-down on making a derivative of their game a peak performer. The
rest of the tour tend to struggle mightily.
他們在二發的「加碼投資」成為賺分利器；其他的球員則是苦苦追趕。
Take the 2016 United States Open as an example.
拿2016的美網做例子。
Performance behind first serves in New York in the men’s draw last year was
outstanding, as always. There were 15,749 first serves hit in the court, with
the server winning 11,209 of them, accounting for a dominant win percentage
of 71 percent.
男子選手首發表現亮眼，總共15749次首發，得了11209分，得分機率是71趴。
First serves are a cash cow, a stalwart of the portfolio.
首發是個賺錢的股票，是網球股票投資組合的亮眼標的。
At the 2016 Open, second serves were a losing prospect. There were 12,256
second serves hit last year, with the server winning 6,049 of the points, or
49.3 percent. Returners won more points than servers did when the point
started with a second serve.
二發在2016的美網，就是個賠錢貨惹。總共12256次二發，得了6049分，機率是49.3趴。接
二發的球員得分還比發二發的球員得更多分。
Winning points behind first serves is a given. Winning points behind a second
serve is a privilege.
拿到一發的分數是一定的，但是拿到二發的分數可就是優待了。
At the 2017 Australian Open, Federer won the tournament on the strength of
winning 55 percent of his second-serve points. Nadal won the next Grand Slam
event, the French Open, winning a ridiculously high 74 percent of his
second-serve points. Federer then won Wimbledon, winning 67 percent of his
his second-serve points.
在2017年的澳網，費爸二發的得分機率是55趴；納豆拿下接下來的法網，二發的得分機率
是不可思議的74趴。費爸拿下之後的溫布頓，二發得分機率是67趴。
Talk about a return on investment.
這投資真的是賺。
Second-serve performance is crucial to winning Grand Slam tournaments because
second serves are the gateway for the returner to win crucial return points
to break serve.
二發對拿下大滿貫賽是至關重要的，因為二發對接球者來說是拿下分數，可以破發球局的
關鍵。
Nadal and Federer direct their second serves primarily at their opponents’
body on the backhand side, trying to jam them up while staying away from the
danger of the centerline and sideline, and also staying clear of the opponent
’s more potent forehand return.
費納的二發基本上都是打向接球者的反手靠身體方向，要擠壓到對方，也讓他們離開中線
跟邊線，也讓對方無法用比較強的正手接擊。
Federer’s right-handed second serve is hit with topspin, kicking up high
into the body on the backhand side of the returner. Nadal’s left-handed
second serve is all slice, or side spin, either meant to move away from the
returner, or chase him as he tries to move away from it.
費爸的右手二發轉速極快，反彈後會跳的很高，打向對手的反手；納豆的左手二發則是球
的路線會彎曲，要嘛會往外打離對手，不嘛會往對手身上過去，導致對手得躲開還擊。
For Nadal or Federer to win again in New York this year, performance behind
their second serves will matter more than their scorching forehand winners,
aces or adventures to the net.
所以若是費納今年想贏得美網，他們的二發將會比他們的強力正手，發球Ace，或者網前得
分等還要更重要。
Second serves are where the smart money lives. Over time, the best gains are
accrued by limiting losses, and that is what separates Federer and Nadal from
the field this year.
二發是投資的好標的。長時間下來，最大的收益會來自於減少失分，那也就是費納今年跟
其他選手不一樣的原因。