WTPN21 PGTW 160330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 124.8E TO 19.4N 120.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 124.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.7N 125.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BANDING
CONVECTION. A 152219Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS BROAD,
FRAGMENTED BANDING. A RECENT 160106Z ASCAT-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH
OF HIGH WINDS IN THE GRADIENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15
KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT
INTENSIFICATION WITH A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON,
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170330Z.//
NNNN
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未看先猜會被戲稱為「畫袈裟」或是「畫家殺」之類的！XDD

下週那顆不知道強度到哪

今年的南部到底是…但強度強及範圍大的話，不排除有把高壓往上頂而北偏的可能性吧！