ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21JUL25 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.5N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 198 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 774 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH EASTERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT. A 210043Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH (20-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION, CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE, CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY AND A
WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT, WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD, IMPACTS MIGHT BE SEEN AS FAR AS 400-600 NM AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN, EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
...
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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