ABPW10 PGTW 260230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/260230Z-260600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251951ZJUN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251952ZJUN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
...
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9N
142.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A 252320Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST
WITH GFS GRADUALLY INCREASING MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK WITH GEFS BEING
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT THAN THAT OF ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
https://i.meee.com.tw/mCyTSee.jpg

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