JMA首報 WTPQ50 RJTD 071200 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 071200UTC 12.9N 165.3E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 081200UTC 14.2N 159.2E 60NM 70% MOVE W 17KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT GUST 060KT 48HF 091200UTC 13.6N 152.3E 110NM 70% MOVE W 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT GUST 070KT 72HF 101200UTC 13.0N 146.4E 140NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT GUST 095KT 96HF 111200UTC 13.4N 143.2E 200NM 70% MOVE W 08KT 120HF 121200UTC 15.2N 140.2E 290NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT = ============================================================================== JMA分析資料全文 WTPQ30 RJTD 071200 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.2N, 166.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (MANGKHUT) STATUS. TS MANGKHUT IS LOCATED AT 12.9N, 165.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. = ============================================================================== 定位資料 JTWC JMA 9/4 12Z 10.0N 178.0E 15 9/4 18Z 10.0N 177.1E 15 9/5 00Z 10.0N 176.2E 15 9/5 06Z 10.2N 175.4E 15 9/5 12Z 10.6N 174.8E 15 9/5 18Z 11.0N 174.2E 20 9/6 00Z 11.5N 173.1E 20 9/6 06Z 12.0N 172.0E 20 9/6 12Z 12.1N 170.8E 20 9/6 18Z 12.1N 169.6E 20 9/7 00Z 12.3N 168.0E 20 TD 9/7 06Z 12.4N 166.7E 25 TD 9/7 06Z 12.2N 166.3E 30 TD 9/7 09Z 12.5N 166.1E 30 TD 9/7 12Z 12.8N 165.5E 30 TD 9/7 12Z 12.9N 165.3E 35 TS 9/7 15Z 13.1N 164.5E 35 TS 9/7 18Z 13.0N 163.9E 35 TS 9/7 18Z 13.0N 163.9E 35 TS 9/7 21Z 13.3N 163.2E 35 TS 9/8 00Z 13.6N 162.3E 35 TS 9/8 00Z 13.6N 162.3E 35 TS 9/8 03Z 14.0N 161.5E 35 TS 9/8 06Z 14.3N 160.8E 40 TS 9/8 06Z 14.3N 161.1E 40 TS 9/8 09Z 14.4N 160.3E 40 TS 9/8 12Z 14.8N 159.1E 45 TS 9/8 12Z 14.5N 159.2E 45 TS 9/8 15Z 14.4N 158.1E 45 TS 9/8 18Z 14.9N 157.0E 55 TS 9/8 18Z 14.6N 157.4E 50 STS 9/8 21Z 14.7N 156.1E 55 STS 9/9 00Z 15.1N 154.9E 65 TY 9/9 00Z 14.8N 155.0E 65 TY 9/9 03Z 15.2N 153.8E 65 TY 9/9 06Z 15.3N 152.9E 70 TY 9/9 06Z 15.3N 152.9E 65 TY 9/9 09Z 15.1N 152.1E 65 TY 9/9 12Z 15.1N 150.9E 75 TY 9/9 12Z 15.1N 151.4E 70 TY 9/9 15Z 15.0N 150.4E 75 TY 9/9 18Z 14.7N 149.1E 80 TY 9/9 18Z 14.6N 149.1E 80 TY 9/9 21Z 14.6N 148.6E 80 TY 9/10 00Z 14.5N 147.4E 80 TY 9/10 00Z 14.6N 147.5E 80 TY 9/10 03Z 14.4N 146.5E 80 TY 9/10 06Z 14.3N 145.7E 90 TY 9/10 06Z 14.4N 145.6E 80 TY 9/10 09Z 14.2N 144.8E 80 TY 9/10 12Z 14.1N 144.2E 100 TY 9/10 12Z 14.2N 144.2E 85 TY 9/10 15Z 14.1N 143.6E 85 TY 9/10 18Z 14.0N 142.6E 110 TY 9/10 18Z 14.0N 142.6E 85 TY 9/10 21Z 14.0N 142.0E 85 TY 9/11 00Z 14.0N 141.2E 120 TY 9/11 00Z 14.0N 141.3E 95 TY 9/11 03Z 13.9N 140.6E 100 TY 9/11 06Z 14.0N 139.7E 135 STY 9/11 06Z 13.9N 139.8E 105 TY 9/11 09Z 13.8N 139.2E 105 TY 9/11 12Z 13.7N 138.6E 140 STY 9/11 12Z 13.7N 138.7E 105 TY 9/11 15Z 14.0N 138.1E 105 TY 9/11 18Z 13.9N 137.3E 140 STY 9/11 18Z 14.0N 137.4E 110 TY 9/11 21Z 13.9N 136.7E 110 TY 9/12 00Z 13.9N 136.2E 140 STY 9/12 00Z 13.9N 136.2E 110 TY 9/12 03Z 13.9N 135.7E 110 TY 9/12 06Z 14.0N 135.2E 150 STY 9/12 06Z 14.0N 135.2E 110 TY 9/12 09Z 14.2N 134.7E 110 TY 9/12 12Z 14.2N 134.0E 150 STY 9/12 12Z 14.3N 134.0E 110 TY 9/12 15Z 14.4N 133.2E 110 TY