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WTPN21 PGTW 262230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 166.5E TO 8.6N 160.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.6N 166.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FLARING IN NATURE WHILE SOME BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. A
261923Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. A 260958Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS BEING OFFSET BY WIDELY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272230Z.//
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