https://www.pttweb.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694237467.A.9B8
這篇文章很可惜的被刪掉了
其實ptt上有很多篇文章都在談論利率，如
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694616152.A.269.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694611617.A.C3E.html
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1694391683.A.776.html
等等，多不勝數
不過我也不怪板主，畢竟板主是無給職，每天要花那麼多時間維持板面也是很辛苦的
。
進入正文
臺灣人普遍都對利率太樂觀了
美國房貸利率7%
全世界平均房貸利率6%
臺灣房貸利率2%
日本房貸利率1.5%
全世界臺灣應該是第二名，只輸日本而已
。
美國縱然降息，他還有7%
利率這個東西，他是看絕對數字，而不是相對數字
舉例來說
醫師的薪水一直下降
服務員的薪水一直上升
有人會因為這樣不去當醫師而跑去當服務員嗎?
醫師薪水長期走降，但還是很高
服務員薪水長期走升，但還是很低
。
全世界利率平均是6%
就算下降2%，那也還有4%，是臺灣整整2倍之多
。
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/168320
美國是2022/3開始升息，一共升了5.5%，2022/3之前美國的利率是很低的
全世界也跟美國一樣，2022/3開始大幅升息，少數幾個國家例外而已
臺灣只升了0.5%，只有美國的1/10
像臺灣這樣的情況非常的少見，而且也不會長久
。
全世界的經濟是連在一起的，現在有人硬要說全世界都很差，只有我還好???
全世界的通膨是連在一起的，現在有人硬要說全世界都高通膨，只有我還好???
這個是一定不會長久的
。
我說臺灣房價會腰斬，這個是好意提醒你們，但你們聽不進去，硬要認為我在唱衰，然後
亂檢舉，我也不知道該說些什麼
大多數的人都對臺灣房價、臺灣利率太樂觀了
臺灣獨立於全世界的情況是不會長久的
※ 引述《gothmog (上海極司非爾路76號)》之銘言：
: 不負責翻譯在最後
: Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says
: The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-
: elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti
: ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Bloomberg News
: Anya Andrianova
: Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧
: (Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m
: onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu
: rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
: Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition
: al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further
: interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi
: ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan
: d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen.
: His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru
: ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows
: it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic
: ipated.
: The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda
: y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But
: as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road
: as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil
: l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug
: hly 4.3% now.
: “The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall
: y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10
: 0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target
: s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.”
: Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says
: Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro
: ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov.
: 1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h
: ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation.
: STORY CONTINUES BELOW
: The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r
: elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China.
: US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show
: inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The
: CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in
: July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to
: 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows.
: Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets
: “Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate
: out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “
: But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t
: hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.”
: Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua
: n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most.
: He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v
: ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening.
: But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet
: ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden
: cut rates.”
: In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as
: he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for
: most of 2024.
: (Updates market movement.)
: 不負責翻譯如下
: Acadian Asset Management（知名資產管理公司）管理著約1000億美元的基金經理Clifton
: Hill表示，
: 未來幾個月，美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲，美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%（Fe
: d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息）
: 因為通膨打不下來，可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策，至少再加息2-3次
: 他說：美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功，反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息
: 結論： 救救美債？