不負責翻譯在最後
Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says
The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-
elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy ti
ghtening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
Bloomberg News
Anya Andrianova
Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧
(Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming m
onths as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward fu
rther policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.
Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an addition
al 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further
interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s preppi
ng for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealan
d and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen.
His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In Febru
ary, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows
it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants antic
ipated.
The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monda
y as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. But
as Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road
as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects wil
l push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roug
hly 4.3% now.
“The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentiall
y two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $10
0 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ target
s in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.”
Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says
Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see ro
ughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov.
1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the h
ighest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience r
elative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China.
US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show
inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The
CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% in
July, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to
4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows.
Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets
“Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolate
out that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “
But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance t
hat it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.”
Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yua
n, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most.
He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are v
ulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening.
But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are complet
ely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden
cut rates.”
In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as
he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for
most of 2024.
(Updates market movement.)
不負責翻譯如下
Acadian Asset Management（知名資產管理公司）管理著約1000億美元的基金經理Clifton
Hill表示，
未來幾個月，美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲，美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%（Fe
d 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息）
因為通膨打不下來，可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策，至少再加息2-3次
他說：美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功，反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息
結論： 救救美債？