原文標題：
Why the Winners and Losers of Meta’s Bombshell Earnings Will Become Clearer
Today.
原文連結：https://ibit.ly/RlGO
發布時間：Feb. 3, 2022 8:25 am ET
原文內容：
Why the Winners and Losers of Meta’s Bombshell Earnings Will Become Clearer
Today.
為什麼FB驚人收益的贏家和輸家今天會變得更加清晰
Facebook‘s parent company is definitely one of the most unfriended on Wall
Street right now.
Facebook絕對是華爾街目前最不友好的公司之一.
Meta Platforms (ticker: FB), which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, is
seeing its stock go into freefall. The shares were more than 22% in lower in
premarket trading Thursday. If the shares finish more than 18.96% lower in
regular trading in the day ahead, it will be the worst one-day plunge for the
stock in the company’s history.
擁有 Facebook、 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 的 Meta Platforms (股票代碼: FB)的股價正
在直線下跌.週四盤前交易中,該公司股價下跌超過22% .如果該公司股票在當天的正常交
易中下跌超過18.96% ,這將是該公司歷史上最嚴重的一天暴跌.
To blame are the company’s latest quarterly financial results.
該公司最新的季度財務業績是罪魁禍首.
While sales came in ahead of estimates, earnings were weaker than expected
and the group’s guidance was truly dismal: Revenue is expected to come in
between $27 billion and $29 billion in the current quarter. Representing
comparatively anemic annual growth of 3% to 11%, it’s not what’s usually
expected from the company.
儘管銷售額超出預期,但收益低於預期,而且該集團的業績指引確實令人沮喪: 本季度收入
預計在270億美元至290億美元之間.相對來說,年增長率在3% 到11% 之間,這並不是通常對
公司的預期.
Meta cited headwinds from a number of factors, key among which was lower user
impressions hitting advertising dollars. Meta also saw issues with pricing
that stem from disruptive new rules that Apple (AAPL) has introduced for
mobile ads, as well as lower ad budgets as businesses face cost inflation and
supply chain disruptions.
FB列舉了一系列因素帶來的不利影響,其中最關鍵的是降低了廣告收入所帶來的用戶印
象.梅塔也看到了定價問題,這些問題源於蘋果公司(Apple)為移動廣告引入的顛覆性新規
定,以及隨著企業面臨成本膨脹和供應鏈中斷而降低的廣告預算.
Wall Street will be closely watching what happens next, and not just because
it could have a wider impact on the stock market. Two questions, raised by
Barron’s Eric J. Savitz on Wednesday, need to be answered: Is social media
use in decline generally, or just at Meta? And is ad spending dropping, or
just shifting away from Facebook?
華爾街將密切關注接下來會發生什麼,而不僅僅是因為它可能對股市產生更廣泛的影響.巴
倫週三的埃裡克 · j · 薩維茨提出了兩個問題: 社交媒體的使用是普遍下降,還是僅僅
在梅塔？廣告支出是在下降,還是僅僅是從 Facebook 轉移？
We may have some clarity on those two questions today. Social media peers
Snap (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) are set to report earnings after the close,
and could give clues as to whether Meta’s issues are isolated to Meta—or if
there will be broader winners and losers.
今天我們可能對這兩個問題有了一些瞭解.社交媒體同行 SNAP (SNAP)和 Pinterest
(pin)將在收盤後公佈收益,這可能會提供一些線索,表明 Meta 的問題是否只局限於
Meta,或者是否會有更廣泛的贏家和輸家.
Is Social Media in Decline?
社交媒體正在衰落嗎？
“We expect continued headwinds from both increased competition for people’s
time,” Meta said in its earnings release.
“我們預計,兩者都將帶來持續的不利因素,即人們時間競爭的加劇,”Meta 在其財報中表
示.
It’s possible that people are using social media less with the darkest days
of the Covid-19 pandemic behind them. More likely is that there’s a new kid
on the block: TikTok, the video-based social media powerhouse owned by China’
s ByteDance.
人們很可能正在減少對社交媒體的使用,因為2019冠狀病毒疾病流行病最黑暗的日子已經
過去了.但更有可能的情況是,影片社交媒體巨頭抖音(TikTok)佔據越來越多的份額,而它
由中國字節跳動(ByteDance)擁有.
Expected to hit ad impressions in the current quarter, Meta said, is “a
shift of engagement within our apps towards video surfaces like Reels, which
monetize at lower rates.” Meta’s inability to monetize video at the same
rate as it does other elements, like Feed and Stories, is a Meta problem. But
the fact that it’s even chasing a video strategy suggests a desire to catch
up with TikTok.
預計在當前季度達到廣告印象,Meta 說,是“我們的應用程式的參與轉向影片表面,如
Reels,這是在較低的利率賺錢.”無法像 Feed 和 Stories 這樣的其他元素一樣以同樣
的速度從影片中賺錢,這是一個 Meta 問題.但事實上,它甚至在追逐一個影片策略暗示了
一種追趕抖音的願望.
These are similar pressures to those felt by Snap, whose Snapchat platform
has a large overlap with the TikTok user base. Snap stock was downgraded last
week by broker and investment bank Wedbush, with analysts citing TikTok’s
audience share putting Snap’s engagement and ad dollars at risk.
這些壓力與 Snap 感受到的類似,後者的 Snapchat 平臺與 TikTok 用戶群有很大的重疊.
上周,經紀商和投資銀行 Wedbush 下調了 Snap 股票的評級,分析師引用 TikTok 的觀眾
份額,將 Snap 的參與度和廣告收入置於風險之中.
As for Pinterest, the image sharing platform, it has faced its own problems
with declining engagement, earning itself a similar downgrade last month amid
data showing that users had left the platform.
至於圖片分享平臺 Pinterest,它自己也面臨著用戶參與度下降的問題,上個月,由於資料
顯示用戶已經離開了該平臺,它也遭到了類似的下調.
Snap and Pinterest earnings Thursday will hopefully shed more light on
current social media trends. The problem: If both companies see declines in
engagement and a weaker outlook, it could be hard to identify a coherent
reason why, if one exists.
週四的 Snap 和 Pinterest 收益將有望讓人們對當前的社交媒體趨勢有更多的瞭解.問題
在於: 如果兩家公司都看到員工參與度下降,前景黯淡,那麼很難找到一個連貫的理由,如
果存在這樣一個理由的話.
The fact that TikTok’s parent company is private makes understanding whether
that platform is seeing a massive boom at the cost of Facebook, Snapchat, and
Pinterest more difficult.
事實上, 抖音的母公司是私人公司,這使得人們更加難以理解這個平臺是否看到了以
Facebook、 Snapchat 和 Pinterest 為代價的巨大繁榮.
Analysts at Swiss bank UBS, led by Lloyd Walmsley, said their view was one of
“a world broadly moving away from Meta’s strengths, as content consumption
shifts towards creator content and private messaging and away from public
sharing, effectively eroding the company’s moats.”
由勞埃德‧沃姆斯利(Lloyd Walmsley)領導的瑞士銀行(UBS)的分析師表示,他們的觀點是
,“隨著內容消費向創作者內容和私人資訊轉移,而不是公開分享,這個世界正在遠離
Meta 的優勢,有效地侵蝕著公司的護城河.”
Is Mobile Advertising Sunk?
移動廣告是否已經沒落？
Meta’s warning that businesses were reducing ad budgets didn’t ring quite
true. After all, Google and YouTube parent Alphabet (GOOGL) posted blowout
earnings this week on the back of strong advertising.
關於企業正在減少廣告預算的警告並不完全正確.畢竟,在強勁的廣告支持下,穀歌和
YouTube 的母公司 Alphabet 本周公佈了驚人的收益.
Instead, what may be at the root of Meta’s pricing problems are rules
introduced last year by Apple, which require apps on its operating system to
make users opt-in to advertising tracking. It’s not a popular choice, and
media companies have suffered as a result of not being able to provide
advertising clients with thorough data on ad impacts.
相反,Meta 定價問題的根源可能是蘋果去年推出的規定,該規定要求其作業系統上的應用
程式讓使用者選擇加入廣告跟蹤.這不是一個受歡迎的選擇,媒體公司也因為不能向廣告客
戶提供關於廣告影響的完整資料而遭受損失.
One of the reasons behind Snap’s downgrade was expected headwinds to revenue
from these changes. Snap’s earnings could further cement the narrative that
it and Meta, which are heavily reliant on direct-response mobile ads, are in
for an uphill battle.
Snap 下調評級背後的原因之一是,預計這些變化將給公司收入帶來不利影響.Snap 的收入
可能會進一步鞏固這樣一種說法,即該公司和嚴重依賴直接回應移動廣告的 Meta 正在進
行一場艱苦的戰鬥.
Who Might Be the Emerging Winners and Losers?
誰可能是新興的贏家和輸家？
Assuming that social media use at-large is not in decline, it’s likely that
ByteDance and its winning TikTok formula will continue to pose a challenge to
Meta and Snap, and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Twitter and Pinterest.
假設社交媒體的使用並沒有下降,那麼 ByteDance 和它的獲勝的 TikTok 公式很可能會繼
續對 Meta 和 Snap 構成挑戰,或許還會對 Twitter 和 Pinterest 構成一定程度的挑戰.
On the advertising front, it could get more complicated. Meta and Snap look
poised for a tough fight to keep ad dollar growth in the face of Apple’s new
regime, as does Pinterest. Snap stock was down 16% in the U.S. premarket
Thursday and Pinterest fell more than 9%.
在廣告方面,情況可能會變得更加複雜.面對蘋果的新政策,Meta 和 Snap 看起來準備進行
一場艱苦的戰鬥,以保持廣告美元的增長,Pinterest 也是如此.週四美國盤前,Snap 股價
下跌16% ,Pinterest 股價下跌超過9% .
As Barron’s reported last year, when the impacts of the new rules become
more widely known, Twitter may be relatively buoyant because it relies more
heavily on brand advertising. In addition, Amazon (AMZN) could be a winner
because it has its own ad ecosystem, and could snap up direct-response
advertisers who may be looking to shift away from Meta and Snap.
正如《巴倫週刊》去年報導的那樣,當新規則的影響變得更加廣為人知時,Twitter 可能會
相對活躍,因為它更加依賴品牌廣告.此外,亞馬遜(AMZN)可能成為贏家,因為它有自己的廣
告生態系統,並可以搶購直接回應廣告客戶誰可能希望從 Meta 和 Snap 轉移.
Alphabet could benefit from the same trend as Amazon; the company’s
earnings, at least, suggest it won’t be a loser—it relies on advertising
via its dominant Google search platform and via YouTube.
Alphabet 可能會從與亞馬遜同樣的趨勢中受益; 至少該公司的收益表明,它不會成為輸家
ーー它依賴於通過其占主導地位的穀歌搜索平臺和 YouTube 進行廣告宣傳.
More immediately, a spate of advertising infrastructure stocks are getting
slammed. Trade Desk (TTD) was down 7% in the U.S. premarket, with Magnite
(MGNI) falling 5.5% and PubMatic (PUBM) 5% lower. Roku (ROKU), which relies
on targeted advertising, but not on Apple’s platform, fell more than 4%.
更為直接的是,一連串的廣告基礎設施類股正遭受重創.交易台(TTD)在美國上市前下跌了
7% ,magniite (MGNI)下跌了5.5% ,PubMatic (PUBM)下跌了5% .依賴定向廣告而非蘋果平
臺的 ROKU (ROKU)股價下跌超過4% .
心得/評論： ※必需填寫滿30字，無意義者板規處分
FB歸咎於廣告商因為大環境因素縮手
而Google顯示並非如此
今晚的SNAP財報就會顯示FB到底有沒有說實話.
PINS也財報.但其實和上述的社交行為天差地遠就是了.不太確定能不能拿來類比.