1.原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/qdn1kR
2.原文內容：
Jobless claims: Another 3.169 million Americans file for unemployment benefits
Market participants got another pulse check on the U.S. labor market
Thursday, as the world continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic and
ahead of the highly-anticipated April jobs report.
Another 3.169 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week
ending May 2, exceeding economists expectations for 3 million initial jobless
claims. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 3.846 million from the
previously reported 3.839 million. So far over the past seven weeks, more
than 33 million Americans have filed unemployment insurance claims.
Continuing claims, which lags initial jobless claims data by one week,
totaled a record 22.65 million. The prior week’s 17.99 million continuing
claims was revised higher to 18.01 million.
The weekly number of jobless claims has been steadily declining even as the
cumulative number remains high.
“Initial jobless claims continued to moderate during the most recent week of
data despite remaining at an extremely elevated level,” Nomura economist
Lewis Alexander wrote in a note May 1. “Fiscal stimulus and the gradual
re-opening of some industries and states should help the labor market
stabilize further. That said, considerable strain remains, and we continue to
expect the unemployment rate to reach almost 20% in Q2.”
Certain states got hit harder than others last week, as backlogs continue to
get processed. California saw the highest number of initial jobless claims at
an estimated 318,000 on an unadjusted basis, down from 325,000 in the prior
week. Texas reported 247,000, down from 254,000 in the previous week. Georgia
had an estimated 227,000 and New York reported 195,000. Florida, which had
the highest number of claims in the prior week, reported 173,000 in the week
ending May 2, down considerably from 433,000.
Thursday’s weekly claims report comes ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistic
’s April jobs report and on the heels of the ADP employment report.
Wednesday morning, the U.S. private sector lost 20.23 million jobs in April
and was the worst loss in the report’s history, according to ADP.
“Job losses of this scale are unprecedented. The total number of job losses
for the month of April alone was more than double the total jobs lost during
the Great Recession,” ADP Research Institute Co-Head Ahu Yildirmaz said in a
statement.
“Additionally, it is important to note that the report is based on the total
number of payroll records for employees who were active on a company’s
payroll through the 12th of the month. This is the same time period the
Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey,” Yildirmaz added.
Though the ADP report is not always a reliable indicator of what the BLS
report will illustrate, it does provide a bit of insight into the health of
employment in the U.S.
“The report is a bit light on details of any potential methodological
problems this month. The ADP counts anyone on the active payroll rather than
just people who were paid during the month, which is the official non-farm
payroll definition. Within many people put on temporary layoff, that could
have created a discrepancy, with those people still on the active payroll,
but not counted in the official non-farm payroll figures and also qualifying
as unemployed in the other official household survey,” Capital Economics
said in a note Wednesday.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect 21.3 million jobs losses in April when
the BLS releases its report Friday morning, down significantly from 701,000
job losses in March. The unemployment rate is estimated to have surged to 16%
from 4.4% in the prior month.
“April jobs report should go down in infamy,” Bank of America economists
said in a note Wednesday. “The April employment report will reveal
unprecedented job losses as the economy has been shutdown to control the
spread of COVID-19.” The firm projects 22 million job losses during the
month amid the global pandemic.
One important thing to note with April’s jobs report is that there might be
some discrepancies in the two surveys. A furloughed person, who is not
working but has not been laid off, will be classified as unemployed or
temporarily laid off in the household survey. However, if they were paid at
any point during the establishment survey period, they will be classified as
employed.