http://goo.gl/7qXGRQ
Greece will be fine, but the EU, the IMF, Angela Merkel will never live this
down
Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images
The losers, from the left: German Chancellor Angela Merkel, IMF Managing
Director Christine Lagarde, European Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi...
Another weekend, another Greek knife’s edge. As the markets close ahead of
the weekend, they will be prepared for another couple of days of drama in the
epic saga of the Greek debt crisis, looking to see whether the country will
vote for or against the latest bailout package in a referendum scheduled for
Sunday, and whether that in turn is the trigger its final exit from the euro
EURUSD, +0.2616% .
We will find out by Monday morning. One thing should be clear, however.
Sooner or later, Greece is going to get out of the single currency.
And there is a paradox in that which most commentators have so far missed.
When the moment comes, the Greeks themselves will be just fine. But the
collateral damage will be huge.
Most countries that tumble out of dysfunctional currency unions are back on
their feet very quickly.
Its victims? It will be a black day for the International Monetary Fund, for
the European Union, for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and for the gold
bugs. Their standing may never recover from the blow that a “Grexit” will
deliver.
The situation in Greece has descended so deep into chaos that it is anyone’s
guess what will happen next. It might still be in the euro next week. It
might have re-launched the drachma, or a parallel euro. Heck, who knows,
perhaps it will have adopted the dollar or the ruble as its currency?
Everyone in Athens, Brussels and Berlin seems to be flying blind at this
point, and if there is a plan somewhere no one can find it right now.
Anything might happen.
Even so, if there is a Grexit, and that seems the most likely option with the
banks already closed, and the country already in default, then in fact the
country will recover fairly quickly. The Gr-covery will not be long in coming
(after which, there should be a ban on smart-alec words starting with “Gr”
— they are getting Gr-iresome).
Should You Still Travel to Greece?(3:49)
Most countries that tumble out of dysfunctional currency unions are back on
their feet very quickly. Take Argentina for example. After the dollar peg
ended in 2002, between 2003 and 2007 it averaged growth of 8.5% a year.
Greece might not quite manage that, but with wage costs equal to Eastern
Europe after devaluation, and with all the infrastructure that comes from
being in the EU for 30 years, it should do just fine.
In fact, the real pain will be felt elsewhere. Greece coming out of the euro
will create a lot of collateral damage. Here is what to expect.
First, the European Union. The euro was dressed up with a lot of jargon about
optimal currency areas. But in reality, it was launched as a way of
accelerating a single European state. There is nothing wrong with that in
principle — you either like the idea or you don’t.
But the execution of the project has been laughably inept. From the start,
the euro didn’t have the banking union, the transfer system, the central
bank, or the regulatory systems, in place to make a continent-wide monetary
system work. It was a wing-and-a-prayer operation. Would you trust these
people again? The answer is surely no. The Greek debacle is a disaster from
which the EU may well never recover.
Second, the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has always had its critics.
But throughout the last 70 years since it was formed in 1945, it has done a
lot of good. It has drawn on vast pools of money, and used them to stabilize
countries that ran into a crisis, and help them get back on their feet. Maybe
it was sometimes too harsh, but it got a lot right.
But in Greece, it has allowed itself to be hijacked by its French bosses in
what has been essentially a political project. If there is an economist in
the world who thinks the Greek rescue has been well handled they have yet to
show themselves. Projections have been constantly missed, the economy has
shrunk by a quarter, and unemployment has risen above 27%.
And if the country still falls out of the euro, then all that pain was for
nothing. The result? The credibility of the IMF has been shot to pieces. In
the future, countries will be a lot more reluctant to pay their subs, and
countries will be a lot more reluctant to listen to its advice. That will be
a big loss when the next crisis rolls around, but the IMF has only itself to
blame.
Thirdly, Angela Merkel. You will have read plenty of glowing profiles, in
which Merkel is described as the political master of Europe and the most
powerful women in the world. Forget it. Her handling of the Greek crisis has
been a comedy of errors.
From the start, there were only two choices. Either Greece was properly
bailed out, its debts written off, and its economy reflated. Or else it was
helped to relaunch the drachma. Instead, Merkel has dithered, trying to keep
her coalition together, but ducking the hard choices. At every point, she has
been weak and indecisive. A Europe dominated by Germany? Unless the Germans
can come up with a better way of running the continent than this, most people
will say no thanks.
Finally, enthusiasts for gold. On Monday, Greece looked set to tumble out of
the euro. It could be the worst geoeconomic crisis for a generation. And what
did the ultimate safe-haven asset do? The gold price was up a few dollars,
but only a trivial amount, and fell again on Tuesday. Noticeably, its
electronic rival bitcoin was up slightly more. If gold can’t respond to that
kind of crisis, is it still a safe haven? At the very least, it must be
called into question.
A Grexit, if that is what happens, will have lots of ramifications. But the
real damage will not be in Greece — it, after all, will be turning a new
page and staring again. The damage will be inflicted elsewhere — and it will
be the EU and the IMF that will suffer the most.
原文 我懶的翻了 不過我覺得原作者把希臘想的 太有勁爭力了
或許他空很大巴