原文網址: http://ppt.cc/AMUp
圖文部落格: http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32182373
(附詳細表格)
Defense is difficult to quantify.
In the boxscore, we have steals and blocks, which don’t really tell us much.
Two of the league’s top five in total steals plus blocks – Josh Smith and
Andre Drummond – are Pistons. The Pistons are awful defensively and worse
when Smith and Drummond are on the floor together than they are when one or
both is off the floor.
NBA.com/stats tells us how many points per 100 possessions a player’s team
has allowed when he was on the floor, a category dominated by players on the
league’s best defensive teams.
防守是很難量化的。攻守數據中雖然有抄截和阻攻，但是實際上它們不能反映全部，在聯
盟中抄截和阻攻總和的前五名，其中有兩位是活塞的球員，Josh Smith以及Andre
Drummond。不過活塞的防守糟糕透了，而且當他們同時上場時，狀況還會更差勁。
NBA.com/stats提供了所有球員在場上時每100次球權的球隊失分，這個項目的前幾名理所
當然地被聯盟中那些身處防守強隊的球員所佔據。
To be considered for the Kia NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, you
should be on a good defensive team. The last player to win the award that wasn
’t on a team that ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency was Dikembe
Mutombo in 1997-98. And 12 of the 15 winners since then (including each of
the last six) played for teams that ranked in the top five.
And you can find plenty of great defensive players in this season’s top five
teams in defensive efficiency. Indiana (1) has both Paul George and Roy
Hibbert. Chicago (2) has Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Golden State (3) has
Andre Iguodala and Andrew Bogut. Oklahoma City (5) has Serge Ibaka.
想要成為年度防守球員的候選人，你勢必要在一支防守優秀的球隊才行。上一位球隊防守
效率不到前十名卻拿下這個獎項的人是1997-98年的Dikembe Mutombo，而且過去15年來有
12位年度最佳防守球員的球隊防守排名聯盟前5名。你可以從本季防守效率前5名的球隊找
到很多防守出色的球員，包括溜馬(第1)的Paul George和Roy Hibbert，公牛(第2)的
Joakim Noah和Taj Gibson，勇士(第3)的Andre Iguodala和Andrew Bogut，雷霆(第5)的
Serge Ibaka。
It’s hard to pick a Spur for DPOY candidacy when none of them have averaged
30 minutes per game. Beyond the top five defensive teams, Chris Bosh, Marc
Gasol, Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan could be candidates. Their teams all
rank in the top 12 in defensive efficiency, and Howard’s Rockets have only
dropped out of the top 10 since he started missing games.
This season, we have SportVU data to tell us how well opponents shoot near
the basket when a player is there defending it. And we can supplement that
with data on how often opponents actually shoot near the basket when that
player is on the floor. Big guys should get credit for keeping the other team
away from the basket, after all.
要從馬刺選一個DPOY的候選人有點困難，尤其是他們沒有任何一個人平均上場時間超過30
分鐘。除了防守前5名的球隊外，Chris Bosh、Marc Gasol、Dwight Howard和DeAndre
Jordan也可能是候選人，這些人的球隊至少都在防守效率排名前12，其中火箭正是從
Howard缺陣之後才跌出前10名的。本季我們可以透過SportVU的資料去判讀一名球員在籃
下時對手的進攻表現，而且還要搭配當他防守時對手攻擊籃框的次數來比對才行，畢竟趨
使對方遠離籃框出手也應該被考慮做為防守績效的計算才是。
There’s more to defense than protecting the rim, though. For a big man to be
an impact defender, he has to be able to contain ball-handlers on
pick-and-rolls. This is where a guy like Bosh can show his value on a team
that defends like the Heat. It’s also where a guy like Drummond still has a
lot of work to do.
SportVU has numbers on how efficiently opponents have scored when a player is
the help defender on pick-and-roll.
然而防守不是只有保護籃下而已，對大個子來說要成為有影響力的防守者，他還必須在擋
拆時有效嚇阻持球者的攻勢，這正是Bosh在熱火的價值，而這也是Drummond還需要努力加
強的部份。SportVU提供了這個部份的資料，以下的表格列出他們在協防擋拆時對手得分
的效率。(表格請見上列網址)
There’s a lot that goes into these numbers. They’re from all possessions in
which that player defended a ball-screen and the results (a score or no
score) could be several passes away. So they do depend on his teammates quite
a bit. Still, we can see that Bogut, Hibbert and Noah have distinguished
themselves as both rim protectors and pick-and-roll defenders.
The other thing we can look at his how much of an impact these guys make on
their team defensive numbers.
這些數據其實把很多狀況都包含在內，所有對手有執行擋拆的回合都會被計算進來，即使
出手(無論有沒有得分)可能在好幾次傳球之後也一樣，所以這也和隊友的防守有點關係，
不過我們還是可以發現Bogut、Hibbert和Noah同時在保護籃框和防守擋拆上都很傑出。另
外我們還可以研究這些傢伙在場上時對球隊防守數據的貢獻。
If a team has better defensive numbers when a player is off the floor, it
doesn’t mean that he’s a bad defender. The Thunder are typically defending
the opponents’ best players when Ibaka is on the floor and their subs when he
’s off.
Who these guys are being replaced with also plays a role. Hibbert’s the best
rim protector in the league, but Ian Mahinmi is also a very good defender.
But the on-off court numbers make a strong case for Iguodala. The Warriors
have been a much better defensive team with Iguodala on the floor and Bogut
off than vice versa. Opponent shooting numbers, when you compare Iguodala to
some of the league’s other good defenders at the small forward position,
also make a case.
如果球隊在他休息時防守效率比較好，並不意味著這名球員的防守不好，像雷霆的Ibaka
在場上時通常守的是對方最好的陣容，相對地他休息時隊友守的是替補。還有當球員休息
時替代他上場的球員也很關鍵，像Hibbert是聯盟中最好的禁區守護神，但是Ian Mahinmi
也很不錯，因而影響到Hibbert的數據。不過on-off的數據對Iguodala非常有利，勇士在
場上有他卻沒有Bogut時，防守的表現比反過來還要好，當你拿Iguodala和聯盟其他小前
鋒中的頂級大鎖來做比較，數據還是對他有利。
Ron Artest (2003-04) and Gary Payton (1995-96) are the only perimeter players
to win Defensive Player of the Year in the last 25 years. And it’s hard to
argue against a pick of either Hibbert or Noah as the anchors of the two best
defensive teams in the league.
But Iguodala should definitely be in the conversation. He’s the biggest
reason why the Warriors have jumped from 13th in defensive efficiency last
season to third this year, and why the Denver Nuggets have gone in the
opposite direction (from 11th to 21st).
Ron Artest(2003-04)和Gary Payton(1995-96)是過去25年來唯二贏下年度防守球員的外
線球員，你也很難去質疑選擇Hibbert或Noah的人，因為他們是聯盟中兩支最佳防守球隊
的支柱。不過Iguodala還是值得被討論，他是勇士能將防守效率從上季第13名提升到本季
第3名的最大因素，同時也是丹佛金塊退步的原因(從第11名掉到第21名)。