※ [本文轉錄自 UTAH-JAZZ 看板 #1IXV05l2 ]
作者: crownwell (維) 看板: UTAH-JAZZ
標題: [爆料] 要如何解決排名的算計(下)
時間: Fri Nov 15 17:57:19 2013
The 1990 lottery was the first weighted lottery. New Jersey, the worst team in
the league, had 11 chances to win it. Miami, the second-worst team, had 10
chances. The last team in the lottery, 41-41 Atlanta, had one chance.
This was the formula until 1993, when Orlando (which had gone 41-41 with rookie
Shaquille O'Neal) won the lottery for the second year in a row. NBA commissioner
David Stern made no secret of the fact he was not happy.
1990是第一屆加權選秀，New Jersey當年最鳥，有11倍機率拿狀元；Miami第二鳥，有10倍
機率，最後一個有機會的41勝41負Atlanta有1倍。
這公式搞到1993就搞不下去了，因為Orlando擁有狀元俠客後戰績41勝41負，隔年又再度連
莊(按：Chris Webber，但馬上被交易換Penny)，史騰不滿之情溢於言表。
The next year, Stern changed the lottery again. It became even more unevenly
weighted. The best team in the lottery, 41-41 Charlotte, had an 0.5 percent
chance of winning it. The worst team, 13-69, Dallas, had a 25 percent chance.
The league has expanded since then, increasing the number of lottery teams. But
this is basically the same lottery we have today.
Stern had good reasons for everything he did along the way. Any lottery is much
better than no lottery at all. Imagine if the worst team in the NBA
automatically got the No. 1 pick this season, and got to choose among Wiggins,
Parker and Randle next summer. Then you would see some SERIOUS tanking. Like,
teams would call plays for their ball boys.
隔年，他就改變了樂透選秀制，加權不平均了，41勝41負Charlotte只有0.5%機率去贏狀元
籤，最鳥的13勝69敗Dallas有25%機率，聯盟就這樣制訂規則至今，並增加些隊伍進來抽籤
，但也跟今日誌度差不多，史騰總有個好理由，有點籤總比沒籤好。想像若最鳥球隊自動拿
狀元，Wiggins, Parker 與Randle三選一，你就會看到更專業的算計，例如，讓球僮去指揮
若定。
But the current lottery is still significantly flawed, because it places too
great a value on being the worst team in the league. The lottery is constructed
under the assumption that if Team A has a slightly better record than Team B, it
is truly a slightly better team. This is built upon another assumption: Team A
and Team B are both trying as hard as they can, all the time.
That's not really true. There are really two tiers of lottery teams.
但現今制度還是有缺陷，因為最鳥球隊背後潛藏了極大利益，樂透籤制度立基於隊伍A比隊
伍B稍稍好一點的假設，且也假設隊伍A隊伍B都毫無保留的比賽。這不可能成真，這兒有兩
排的球隊有樂透籤呢！
The half-dozen or so worst teams in the league are generally awful. They all
need the boost that comes with one of the top picks in the draft. Last year's
seventh- and eighth-worst teams, Detroit and Washington (they had the same 29-53
record) would have needed at least nine more wins to earn a playoff bid, and for
those teams, nine wins was a lot.
如果有半打擺爛就很恐怖了，他們亟需潛力新秀來推升他們的戰績，去年第七八鳥的
Detroit與 Washington(同為29勝53負)只要再九勝就有季後賽門票，但對它們來說，
九勝很難。
The second tier of lottery teams are teams that were in the playoff hunt, or at
least had good reasons to believe they would be. Last year, Minnesota and
Philadelphia were ravaged by injuries. Portland had a playoff-quality starting
five but no bench. Teams in that tier of the lottery played most of the season
without thinking about the No. 1 pick.
So here is your solution: The seven worst teams in the league all get the same
chance of winning the lottery. Let's say they each have a 10 percent chance of
winning it. Then the league weights the rest of the lottery. The chart above
would look something like this:
對於第二排的樂透球隊來說，他們很接近季後賽了，或許也有幾個好理由支持他們會進去，
去年，Minnesota 與Philadelphia病痛纏身，Philadelphia排得出先發但無板凳奧援。
第二排的樂透球隊其實沒對狀元籤動腦筋。
所以狀況來了，假設它們都有10%機率贏它，然後聯盟調整樂透權重，圖表會像這樣:
2012-13 NBA 樂透籤(我的提案)
隊伍 戰績 狀元籤機會
Orlando 20-63 10
Charlotte 21-61 10
Cleveland 24-58 10
Phoenix 25-57 10
New Orleans 27-55 10
Sacramento 28-54 10
Detroit 29-53 10
Washington 29-53 9
Minnesota 31-51 7
Portland 33-49 5
Philadelphia 34-48 3
Toronto 34-48 2
Dallas 41-41 2
Utah 43-39 2
How would that change the behavior of teams? Well, the future is hard to predict
, or at least hard to predict accurately. But I think it would accomplish the
two primary goals of the lottery: rewarding the worst teams in the league, and
discouraging tanking.
這會怎麼改變球隊的行為？嗯，未來更難預測了，或更難準確預測，且我想會達成兩個主要
目的:1.獎勵鳥隊們。2.降低算計。
WINN: Michigan State outshines top picks at Champions Classic
The really lousy teams would still get the best shot at the top picks. But they
would have no incentive to out-stink each other. That would mean that, when
general managers constructed their teams over the summer, they would be more
likely to add a player or two that would improve their team, because the
downside risk (losing ping-pong balls for the lottery) would not be there.
最鳥球隊還是有最高選秀權，但減少比爛動機，當總管進行重建計畫，也會加一兩個球員去
保持球隊戰力，因為下跌風險已不復在。
This would also help take care of the perception problem. Once the season was
underway, there would be no question: The players on the court would try to win.
So would the coaches. This would make the worst teams more watchable, which
would be good for fans, and good for the credibility of the league. There would
still be bad teams, but that's true in every league. You just don't want anybody
thinking it is good to be the worst.
這也能顧到觀念，當球季進行，毫無疑問，球員跟教練會努力去贏，最鳥球隊更具可看性，
球迷也獲益，聯盟更可信，雖還是有爛隊，但那是事實，我們只是不想有人處心積慮變鳥
罷了。
The teams in the upper tier of the lottery would also be unlikely to tank. They
would have too much to gain by making the playoffs, even as a No. 8 seed: at
least two home games' worth of revenue, positive publicity with the fan base,
playoff experience for younger players, and the once-a-decade chance of pulling
an upset. That's not worth giving up for a two-percent chance at the No. 1 pick.
That's why the bottom half of the lottery would be weighted