推 momocom : 不過解放軍的彈道飛彈怎麼那麼準？ 01/11 16:21
→ momocom : 居然一開戰可以重創美日的基地 01/11 16:22
→ momocom : 我們的海軍還全滅，PLA是套用哪一場戰役？ 01/11 16:22
推 momocom : 我方海軍開戰全滅，蘭德的報告也提過 01/11 16:35
→ momocom : 我只是奇怪PLA參數套用哪個，怎麼飛彈那麼神準 01/11 16:36
→ momocom : 重點是都還找得到船，PLA情報那麼強？ 01/11 16:37
不太確定是否為正確資料來源
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
https://reurl.cc/GX2O3v
報告:
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
https://reurl.cc/eWKANM
P52
Ground-Launched Missiles
China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is a formidable
force. Thus, each game turn begins with ground-based missile attacks.
These missiles primarily target U.S. and Japanese surface ships and
air bases.
中國玩家每次會以地對地飛彈發動突擊
同時攻擊美日水面艦與空軍基地
To speed up play, China’s war-opening joint fires
strike on Taiwan was modeled and pre-adjudicated in every iteration.
這邊我不確定意思
This strike employs much of China’s short-range ballistic missile
inventory and would largely destroy Taiwan’s navy and cripple its
air force.
中國用光短程彈道飛彈打爛台灣海軍並削弱台灣空軍
解釋為何可以打爛台灣海軍的原因放在註119
119 Taiwan’s navy consists of outdated ships that would be subjected to a
wide array of Chinese coastal defense cruise missiles, Houbei fast-attack
boats, and bombing from attack aircraft.
The ships possess only rudimentary self-defenses that are unsuitable
for the sophistication of Chinese attacks.
China’s success in destroying these ships would be even greater
if China could catch them in port because Taiwan failed to
receive or react to warnings of China’s impending attack.
While some Taiwanese ships would survive this initial strike,
they would be unable to operate in the strait or as an
effective force. For an overview of Taiwan’s navy,
see: “Overview of Taiwanese Navy Warships,” YouTube video, posted by
Eurasia Nabal Insight, August
13, 2022, 20:37, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItW7f3_BVCo.
台灣艦隊擺爛太久防空能力低弱
然後又可能在港口被奇襲
所以很可能第一波就被炸爛
剩下的也沒啥用處
這是CSIS的看法
被短程彈道飛彈炸爛的理由就見人見智吧