MLB板首PO 拗口之處請大家多多踴躍指正!
其實上周就翻完...但選舉回老家沒電腦就拖到現在才發文XD
翻完當下在棒球版看到已經有FOX記者擷取摘要了
不過還是來獻醜一下QQ
原文如下 來自 FanGraphs
https://tinyurl.com/ya8kkla2
裡面有三部影片就請有興趣的板友點進去看惹
The Next Starting Pitcher To Come From Japan
by Jeff Sullivan
November 20, 2018
For what felt like quite a while, the chatter last offseason was dominated by
the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. Yusei Kikuchi isn’t Shohei Ohtani. For one
thing, Kikuchi is a few years older. For a second thing, Kikuchi doesn’t
routinely throw his fastball in the upper 90s. And for a third thing, no one
has ever referred to Kikuchi as the Japanese Babe Ruth. I don’t know much
about Kikuchi as a hitter, but I can assume that he is a bad hitter, because
he is a pitcher who hasn’t made waves with his hitting. Kikuchi appears to
have three career hits, now that I check. One of them was a double.
去年休賽季期間最勁爆的話題就是大谷翔平會獎落誰家，菊池雄星不是大谷翔平，他不只
比大谷老了幾歲(三歲)，而且他沒辦法常態性地將球速飆到95mph以上，再者他不是日本
版的Babe Ruth。作者對於菊池雄星的打擊實力不是很清楚，但他認定菊池應該不是一個
太好的打者，至少他的打擊沒有引起太大關注過。
(作者在寫文章同時順手查了一下，菊池生涯只敲過三支安打其中包含一隻二壘安打。)
Shohei Ohtani was, and is, a sensation. The Kikuchi hype couldn’t possibly
get close to that level, because Kikuchi won’t be trying to do something no
one else has done in a lifetime. But somewhere in the next week or two,
Kikuchi will be posted by the Seibu Lions, as the 27-year-old southpaw wants
to make his mark in the bigs. He’ll be free to negotiate with any and every
team, and he’s been rather heavily scouted. It’s time we talk about who
Kikuchi is as a pitcher. It just so happens we’ve been given two fairly
reasonable comps.
大谷翔平至今仍震驚著這世界，菊池的話題性沒辦法跟大谷相提並論，因為他不是在挑戰
一件從古至今沒有人辦到過的事情。這名27歲亟欲挑戰大聯盟的左投手將在幾周後被母隊
西武獅放上檯面，而且他可以任意跟所有隊伍接觸
Consensus seems to be that Kikuchi isn’t an ace in the making. At least, not
by major-league standards. It’s easy enough to look over his numbers at
Baseball Reference. Because of injuries, it took a little while for Kikuchi’
s career innings to start adding up. He seemed to conquer some walk problems
in 2017. In the most recent year, his strikeouts went backward. There was
another flare-up of a shoulder problem, that dropped Kikuchi’s innings total
by 24.
所有人都有共識說菊池在大聯盟不會是Ace等級的身手，從BR的數據中可以發現菊池飽受
傷痛困擾，這也導致了他在生涯投球局數這方面的累積的不是很快。菊池在2017年克服了
生涯初期保送過多的問題，但這幾年他的三振率也逐步下降，另外一個大問題是他的肩傷
在2018年一度困擾了他，使他投球局數較前一年少了24局。
It’s more useful to me, though, to try to put those numbers in context. This
is where DeltaGraphs comes in handy. I calculated a bunch of Kikuchi’s
percentile ranks for the 2018 NPB season. And I’ve chosen to compare those
percentile ranks to those posted by 2015 Kenta Maeda, and 2017 Miles Mikolas.
Maeda came from Japan to the majors, entering his age-28 season. Mikolas came
(back) from Japan to the majors, entering his age-29 season. Kikuchi is
coming from Japan to the majors, entering his age-28 season. We’ve seen
Maeda be successful. We’ve seen Mikolas be successful. None of these
pitchers have overpowering repertoires. I’ll note, before the first plot,
that the one major difference is that Maeda and Mikolas are righties. Keep
that in the back of your mind.
多虧有DeltaGraphs(日本職棒的數據資料庫)這個地方，作者將菊池雄星的數據換算成PR值
，並且拿來跟2015年的前田健太以及2017年的Miles Mikolas相比較，那時前田正要28歲，
Mikolas則是要用29歲的賽季再度挑戰大聯盟。我們已經看到他們兩人都有成功繳出精采的
表現，但我要提醒的一點是，他們兩個都是右投而菊池是左投!
Here are half of the percentiles I calculated:
下圖是筆者整理的前半部分
https://imgur.com/yYCYTfd
K%:三振率 BB%:保送率 K-BB%:三振減保送率 RA:責失分
FIP:Fielding Independent Pitching，只考慮 HR + HBP + BB + K 的影響(越低越好)
xFIP:Expected FIP，根據球場做全壘打部分修正的FIP
GB%:滾地球率 Hard%:hard contact比率
You can see similarities here across the board. The big differentiator is
that Kikuchi’s final-season walk rate wasn’t quite so impressive, but it
wasn’t bad by any means, and Kikuchi looks just fine by K-BB%. By runs
allowed and FIP, Kikuchi doesn’t quite measure up, but he’s right there by
xFIP. All three of these pitchers leaned a little toward grounders. I do
think it’s worth highlighting that, while all three strikeout rates looked
good, they weren’t exceptional. They weren’t at the top of the league. They
were just near to the top.
讀者可以發現這三個人在日本職棒最後一季的各項數據排名竟然如此相似，唯一較大不同
之處在於菊池的保送率並沒有特別突出的表現(PR值約55)，可也不算到太差，在K/BB方面
有不錯的水準。菊池即使在責失分以及FIP的部分小輸給兩位前輩，但xFIP則維持和兩位
前輩並駕齊驅的優質表現。筆者認為他們三個都是偏向滾地球型的投手，附帶優秀三振能
力，但他們不是日本職棒最強的投手，他們只是接近最強。
Now for the other half of the percentiles. These include some
plate-discipline components:
後半部分則包括了一些本壘板紀律的項目
https://imgur.com/fhW7So7
FA MPH:速球球速 Slider%:滑球使用率
O-swing%:打者追打壞球比率 Z-swing%:打者揮擊好球比率
O-contact%:壞球被打者觸球率 Z-contact%:好球被打者觸球率
Contact%:揮棒觸球率 Zone%:好球率
More similarities. Let’s just go from left to right. We’re seeing
above-average fastball velocities for the NPB, but Kikuchi mostly threw
90-93, averaging about 91.5. Pitchers throw harder in the majors. Kikuchi and
Maeda have both loved their sliders, throwing more of them than almost anyone
else. Mikolas threw a slider pretty often in Japan, but he also threw more of
his curveball. All three pitchers were able to induce swings out of the zone,
but none of the three pitchers were good at suppressing swings in the zone.
Kikuchi appears by far the best here at getting whiffs out of the zone,
presumably thanks to his quality slider. As far as whiffs in the zone go, not
that much to look at. Kikuchi looks better at missing bats overall. And these
are pitchers who’ve worked in and around the zone, with Kikuchi resembling
Mikolas in the last stat.
後半部分三人更像了!他們同時擁有日職平均之上的球速，菊池能丟到90-93mph，但在大
聯盟裡能丟的比他們快的投手比比皆是。前田以及菊池相當倚賴他們的滑球，他們丟滑球
的比率幾乎是日職最多的，Mikolas在日職時期也很常丟滑球，但出現更多的是他的曲球。
三個人都能有效吸引打者去揮擊好球帶之外的球(O-swing)，可惜的是他們都不常讓打者
站著被三振，菊池能憑藉著強悍的滑球，讓打者頻頻揮空好球帶之外的壞球，可是一旦丟
入好球帶，打者都還是能碰到球。總體來說菊池讓打者揮空的能力是三人最優，控球能力
則和Mikolas相去不遠。
(提醒一下，這邊都是以旅美前一年的成績類比，非生涯平均)
Handedness aside, Kikuchi has, in general, pitched like Maeda and Mikolas, in
their own final NPB seasons. Kikuchi’s repertoire is like a left-handed
version of Maeda’s, and Kikuchi’s bread-and-butter seems to be generating
chase swings with his slider. I wouldn’t say that Kikuchi can quite compare
to Mikolas’ command, but he’s a little better at picking up whiffs, and he
knows how to pitch to the zone. Mikolas just ran an FIP- of 81, and an xFIP-
of 90, over 200.2 innings. Maeda, over 435.1 big-league innings, has an FIP-
of 88, and an xFIP- to match.
撇除左投右投因素，這三人在日本職棒最後一年的成績是非常相似的，菊池就像是左手版
的前田健太，但他極大的優點就是擁有犀利的滑球能使打者去追打壞球。作者認為菊池將
球控制在好球帶邊角的能力不如Mikolas，但他更能有效地製造打者揮空，而且他知道該
如何將球丟進好球帶。Mikolas目前回大聯盟後的FIP-是81，xFIP-則是90(200.2局成績)
，前田則是擁有FIP- 88，xFIP-也是90的優異成績。
Here is a clip of Kikuchi’s fastball, which is his primary pitch:
這邊為菊池雄星2017年直球影片
That particular fastball was clocked at 95.7 miles per hour. It’s from 2017,
when Kikuchi didn’t have any shoulder issues, but it’s still clear that
Kikuchi can sometimes brush against the upper 90s. Now, here’s a clip of the
slider, which is his secondary pitch. You might recognize old friend Carlos
Peguero!
這顆直球的速度高達95.7mph，2017年的他沒有遇到肩膀受傷的問題，那時的他已證明自己
偶爾能丟到95mph以上。接著以下的滑球剪輯，你可以發現揮空的打者是以前在大聯盟待過
的Carlos Peguero!!!
And here’s a clip of Kikuchi’s occasional curveball:
接著來看菊池表演他偶爾才投的曲球
To round out the arsenal, Kikuchi has infrequently thrown a changeup. He’s
thrown it enough, though, to qualify as a four-pitch pitcher, and he’s a
fastball-slider specialist. It’s not an accident he’s drawn comparisons to
free-agent lefty starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin, unlike Kikuchi, is coming
off a 2018 that was better than his 2017, but the pitchers have similar plans
of attack. Corbin this year was better at getting whiffs, but that was a new
level for him, and Kikuchi picked up more strikeouts the season before. Also,
while Kikuchi has had some shoulder issues, Corbin has had major elbow
surgery.
縱觀完菊池的主要武器球種後，他其實還有一顆不錯的變速球，使他變化球種來到三種，
但主要還是由直球滑球搭配使用，而這樣的特性也難怪很多人會將他拿來和今年成為自由
球員的左投Patrick Corbin相比擬。Corbin在2018年繳出了比2017年更精采的成績單，讓
打者揮了更多空棒，但他以前從沒有表現得如此優異過。而菊池的三振功力則在今年稍稍
下滑。此外兩人的傷痛史旗鼓相當，菊池肩膀曾出過問題，Corbin則是手肘動過大手術。
The shoulder problems are certainly a cause for concern. On the plus side,
Kikuchi was durable a season ago, and he came back from injury in 2018
looking effective. On the minus side, it’s not as if Kikuchi has only had
one or two flare-ups. But, see, this is just another good comparison between
Kikuchi and Maeda, because after Maeda agreed to terms with the Dodgers, it
was reported that his medicals were dreadful. The structure of his contract
reflects the organization’s concern, as they built in substantial
protection. Kikuchi’s physical probably won’t go quite as badly, but I’m
not a doctor. Even if I were, I wouldn’t be Kikuchi’s doctor.
菊池的肩傷對於想要爭取他的球隊來說是個該擔憂的點，好的方面來看，他曾在2017年證
明自己很耐投，而且2018年即使受傷也能很快地走出來。壞處來想，菊池的傷不是只有發
生過一兩次。但我們能從另一方面來藉由前田健太來和菊池雄星連結，前田因為體檢報告
相當不樂觀，所以道奇對他的疑慮也反應在他當年奇特的合約之中，藉由低底薪以及各種
激勵獎金來完成簽約。作者認為菊池應該相對健康，但畢竟他不是醫生，更不是菊池雄星
的專屬醫生！
There’s no point in me trying to predict where Kikuchi is going to sign.
There are too many teams presently interested, and just about every team
needs pitching. Just about every team can afford Yusei Kikuchi. Once Kikuchi
is officially posted, I’m sure we’ll start to get some clarity, and we’ll
identify some number of favorites. By rule, it’ll all have to resolve itself
within 30 days. And Kikuchi does seem to be a promising No. 2 or No. 3
pitcher. So much is going to depend on his shoulder, and for that reason, the
shoulder will be examined awful closely. But, in 2019, Yusei Kikuchi will
pitch in the majors. Expect him to get a lot of guys out.
作者沒有任何線索讓他來預測菊池雄星的落腳處，因為大聯盟很多隊都對他展現了興趣，
規則上他要在宣告入札的30天內決定球隊。菊池被認定有大聯盟2~3號先發投手的實力，但
他拿拿到多少價碼恐怕要看他的健檢報告而定，尤其是他的肩膀。但無論如何菊池雄星在
2019年就要在大聯盟登板，期待他能讓許多打者聞風喪膽！
簡單摘要&心得：
該作者是拿前田 & Mikolas旅美前一年的成績換算成PR值來跟菊池雄星做個比較
發現三人成績極為相似，不過也提到菊池的傷痛史是個要注意的點
另外我自己看到菊池的揮臂，有點看到偉殷的影子........
感謝大家閱讀完~~~