來源: FiveThirtyEight.com
連結: https://goo.gl/jwnSAo
How The Dodgers Are Using Baseball’s New DL Rules To Get An Edge
By: Rob Arthur
道奇是如何使用新的DL制度取得優勢的
In a season when the Los Angeles Dodgers are dominating everything in sight,
they also lead the majors in a less praiseworthy category: trips to the
disabled list. Two weeks ago, prized trade-deadline acquisition Yu Darvish
was sent to the 10-day DL; last week, dark-horse Cy Young candidate Alex Wood
was. Those are just some of the latest moves in what has become essentially a
weekly ritual for the Dodgers, marking their 37th use of the short-term DL so
far this season (25 of which have been for pitchers), more than any other
team in baseball.
在這個幾乎稱霸所有項目的球季，道奇也在一個看起來不值得掌聲的項目領先：
DL的次數。兩個禮拜前，交易截止前獲得的大物達比修也不例外地進了10日DL。上個禮
拜，賽揚獎的黑馬人選Alex Wood也無倖免。這些動作在道奇隊似乎已成了每週的例行公
事，本季已經第37次進入短期的傷兵名單了(其中25次是投手)(註:指目前的10day-DL)，
次數領先其他所有球隊
Critics charge the Dodgers with exaggerating these kinds of injuries to game
the DL, allowing the team to rest some of its starting pitchers without
giving up a roster spot. And the Dodgers are certainly leading the way in
this practice, which became much easier to pull off after a rule change this
season shortened the length of a short-term DL stint from 15 days to 10. But
the Dodgers aren’t the only outfit to make heavy use of the new disabled
list — teams across the league are stashing more players on the short-term
disabled list this season. Nor is this a completely new development: Even
before the rule change, short-term DL use had been on the rise for years.
評論指出，道奇過度誇飾了球員受傷的程度，讓他們的先發投手可以休息又不佔據
球員名單。道奇顯然是使用這種方式的佼佼者，在這季中，15日DL改為10日大大地使得這樣
的作法更為容易。但道奇並不是唯一這樣作的球隊, 聯盟中的其他球隊也同樣更頻繁地使
用了短期傷兵名單。而這現象並不是今年才出現，短期傷兵的使用在近年本已有增長趨勢。
In an age of one-inning relievers, roster size is a major limitation for
modern front offices. Any unusable players — for example, a starting pitcher
who threw yesterday — can cost a team, as their spot could be taken by yet
another flamethrowing bullpen arm. So teams have come up with all sorts of
ways to overcome roster-size limitations, ranging from sending an endless
churn of relievers back and forth between triple-A and the majors to creating
potential dual-role position player-pitcher hybrids.
在後援投手場均吃一局的年代，球員名單的人數限制是管理層一大難題。所有該場
不會上場的球員，比如說昨天的先發投手，等於多佔據了一個可以給火球男出場的名額。因
此，球隊們使用許多方式來克服名單限制。比如說，讓牛棚投手頻繁來往3A，或者讓一些球
員成為投打雙刀流(連結指向教士隊Betancourt)
But the 10-day disabled list might have opened up new possibilities for
roster manipulation. A starting pitcher who is placed on the list may only
have to miss a single start while freeing up his roster spot for a fresh arm
out of the bullpen. The tactical advantage of that additional reliever,
combined with the extra rest it gives the starter, appears to have been too
good of an opportunity to pass up.
但10日DL的出現，開啟了另一個新的操控球員名單的可能性。先發投手可以只被跳過
一次先發，把名單讓給新鮮的牛棚手臂。增加一個牛棚投手，又能讓先發投手多加休息，這
樣的機會實在千載難逢。
Smart teams like the Dodgers have exploited this latest edge. Here’s a chart
showing MLB teams’ use of the short-term disabled list by season since 2009
(for comparison’s sake, I included uses for the short-term DL’s longer,
60-day brother).
一些聰明的球隊，比如說道奇，善於此道來增加優勢。下圖顯示2009以來的短期傷兵名單
使用次數。(加入長期傷兵名單 - 60日傷兵使用次數作為比較)
圖: http://imgur.com/a/pZbpr
There’s still more than a month left on the schedule, but we’re on pace to
see the 10-day DL used 775 times this season. That would be an increase in
short-term DL stints of 40 percent compared with last year. And it’s not
just that injury rates are suddenly up across the board in 2017: Long-term
disabled list usage has stayed at almost the same level for the past five
years.
球季還剩下超過一個月，但以目前進度將會有775次10日DL使用。相比去年，這將會是40%
的成長。但這看來不是因為今年特別容易受傷，長期傷兵名單在過去五年的使用次數幾乎不
變
It’s clear, then, that the new 10-day disabled list has changed the way
teams tinker with their rosters. But the new list didn’t so much create a
new problem as exacerbate an old one. League-wide use of the short-term DL
has jumped in each of the past four years (including this season) — and the
Dodgers have paved the way. Since Andrew Friedman left the Tampa Bay Rays to
become president of baseball operations for the Dodgers after the 2014
season, the team has led the league in short-term DL stints every year (only
once during those three seasons did the Dodgers have the most long-term DL
stays — a clearer sign of legitimate injury problems).
看起來似乎很明顯，10日DL讓球隊有新的方式操作球員名單。但新的制度似乎不完全是傷兵
次數增加的主因，過去四年，短期傷兵名單的使用已是年年增加，道奇可說是當仁不讓。
自從Andrew Friedman在2014年結束後離開光芒加入道奇，這隻球隊每一年都在短期傷兵使
用領先群雄(其中只有一年在長期傷兵名單領先, 長期傷兵通常是更明顯的傷勢)。
The increasing use of short-term DL stints across baseball has prompted
questions from the league about whether all these ailments are legitimate.
Last month, Rob Manfred, MLB’s commissioner, expressed fears that the list
was being manipulated — and with good reason. In an interview last year,
Dodgers starter Ross Stripling suggested that one of his trips to the
disabled list in the past was less about recovering from an injury and more
about hitting an innings limit.
短期傷兵使用的增加讓人懷疑這些傷勢是不是都是合理的。上個月, 大聯盟的執行長
Rob Manfred 表示擔心傷兵名單被過度的操作。這樣的擔心是合理的，去年道奇隊的投手
Ross Stripling在訪談中便指出，他有一次進DL主要是為了控制局數而非復原傷勢。
Much of the increase in short-term DL trips from recent years seem to be for
nonspecific reasons, ranging from weariness to different kinds of strains. In
2016, five short-term injuries included “fatigue” in their description;
over the three previous seasons, there were only three such trips, combined.
最近幾年短期傷兵名單使用的增加，似乎都被給予不太明確的原因。從疲勞到各式各樣
的拉傷。在2016，有5個短期傷兵名單的原因是「疲勞」，在更之前的三個球季，總共只有
3次的原因是因為疲勞。
Similar increases have occurred in short-term DL trips for other vague
injuries. Increases in injuries described with the words “fatigue,” “
tightness” or “strain” have together accounted for almost 50 percent of
the total jump in short-term disabled list trips since 2014.
其他模糊的傷勢理由也隨著增加，從2014以來，所有增加的DL次數，將近有50%以上，
傷勢的理由帶有「疲勞」、「緊繃」或「拉傷」
Unless baseball became a lot more tiring and stressful in the past three
years, it seems as though teams may be exaggerating small issues in an effort
to free up roster spots.
除非棒球運動在過去三季讓人更容易疲勞或緊繃，否則很難不相信各球隊在誇大傷勢
以便獲得球員名單空間。
But while the Dodgers seem to have pioneered this tactic, whether they are
deriving any substantial advantage from it is unclear. That’s because the
exact benefits of having a fresh relief pitcher are difficult to calculate.
但即使道奇是此道的先鋒，但還是很難計算他們從此獲得多少好處。畢竟多一隻新鮮的手
臂的效用是很難計算的。
By at least one measure, though, the Dodgers are succeeding. In a normal
five-man rotation, pitchers rest for four days and throw on the fifth. But by
stashing a starter on the DL, a team can give him a much longer recovery
period. Extended rest (five or more days) seems to reduce the probability of
a serious injury by 20 percent, so a smart team might try to frequently rest
fragile starters to minimize the risk that they will become severely hurt.
And that’s exactly what the Dodgers have done. So far this season, they are
on pace to have the second-most starts thrown by pitchers with five or more
days of rest than any team since at least 2009. And last season’s Dodgers
already had the third-highest mark since 2009, so the new 10-day disabled
list didn’t necessarily inspire this tactic. But it might have made the
strategy more effective by allowing their pitchers to miss fewer starts.
但至少在一點上，道奇確實是成功的。在正常的五人輪值，先發投手投一休四。但若是
把先發投手扔進DL，他可以得到更長的休息。拉長休息天數情況下(5天以上)似乎可以減低
20%的受傷機會，所以聰明的球隊試著讓脆弱手臂多加休息以降低嚴重受傷風險。這就是道
奇隊在作的。本季到目前為止，他們將預計會是自2009年以來，第二多的先發場次是由休息
五天以上的先發投手主投的。去年的道奇隊已經是自2009年以來的第三位了，所以這樣的策
略似乎不是由今年的10日DL促成的。但它可能讓這樣的操作更有效率，因為先發投手可以缺
席更少場次。
Even knowing that rest prevents injuries, whether Los Angeles prevented more
serious ailments by using the short-term DL so frequently is difficult to
say. Friedman built the Dodgers’ rotation on a surprisingly thrifty budget,
relying largely on injury-prone pitchers who could be bought on the cheap.
And the Dodgers seem to have gotten their money’s worth: They racked up more
disabled list trips than any other team in the league in 2016, even if you
focus only on the 60-day list (for which there is no tactical value to
overuse). So even if you believe that the Dodgers are gaming the disabled
list with fake injuries, they also seem to be suffering the most genuine ones
of any team.
即使休息真的有助於預防受傷，但道奇是否有因此減少嚴重傷勢難以衡量。Friedman
以相當節省的方式打造了先發輪值，使用了許多容易受傷的球員，也因此節省了成本。道奇
確實付出了代價。他們2016在傷兵名單使用稱霸全聯盟，即使你只看60日傷兵名單亦然(沒
有太多操作價值)。所以即使你認為道奇用假傷來玩弄系統，他們也確實是受到傷病傷害最
大的球隊。
But despite all that missed time, the Dodgers’ rotation has also been very
successful, earning the second-most wins above replacement in baseball since
2014. As if harkening back to his career with the low-budget Rays, Friedman
managed to put together one of the league’s best starting units using cheap
talent and a clever strategic advantage. And with Los Angeles currently
riding that rotation to an all-time great season, MLB’s 29 other teams might
do well to copy the Dodgers’ roster-manipulation tactics.
即便這些進傷兵的次數，道奇的輪值是相當成功的，2014年以來的WAR排名第二。Friedman
在低薪資的光芒學會了用低廉的薪資和巧妙的策略組成優秀的輪值。而道奇今年的輪值方式
帶領他們完成一個輝煌的賽季。在未來，其他29隻球隊或許也會抄襲這樣的操作策略。