Jim Callis, John Sickles, BP, FG等人做新秀的Mock Draft
15人選4輪 蠻有趣的
Round One
1.1) Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins (Jim Callis, MLB.com)
“I was tempted by Kris Bryant's power, but Buxton's all-around brilliance
made this a fairly easy choice. If he reaches his ceiling, his ability to hit
for a high average with 20-homer pop and plenty of runs, RBIs, and steals
could make him the most valuable player in fantasy baseball once he hits his
prime. I think his injuries have been more of a fluke than an indication that
he'll have trouble staying in the lineup.”
1.2) Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Nick Shlain, Baseball Prospectus)
“After Buxton came off the board, the decision between the two was made for
me, but Bryant has an argument for the top spot. He showed off tremendous
power in the minor leagues last year, hitting 43 home runs across two levels
in 138 games, and should spend a good portion of this year in the majors.”
1.3) Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (Al Melchior, CBS)
“Nick spared me a dilemma when he selected Kris Bryant with the second pick,
but I was leaning towards taking Correa, even if somehow Bryant was still on
the board. While I generally prefer players who are closer to the majors
(as we have a better indication of how their numbers might translate), it
would have been too hard to pass up on the potential combination of power,
speed and good contact skills for someone who has a chance to stick at
shortstop. Even though Jed Lowrie's arrival in Houston may mean a 2016 debut
for Correa, he should be worth the wait.”
1.4) Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“I also grabbed Soler in last year's mock draft (although I got him in the
fourth round instead of with the fourth pick.) There were four guys who I
strongly considered with this pick, and while some of the others may have
more positional value, or more fantasy-relevant speed, I think Soler is the
safest of the bunch. He had a very successful stint in the majors last year,
and Steamer already has him contributing some pretty nice fantasy stats in
the upcoming season, hitting 23 HRs with a batting average that won't hurt
you and even throwing in a couple of steals for good measure. Soler is
actually a couple of months younger than future teammate Kris Bryant and the
combination of his high floor and growth potential gives him the slight edge
here.”
1.5) Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“I can't take a pitcher this early, so this boils down to a trio of hitters
for me: Joey Gallo, Addison Russell, or Corey Seager. Positional value makes
the latter two more attractive. As for which one to pick, Seager is a few
months younger than Russell and appears less prone to injury. On the other hand,
Russell is more likely to be able to handle shortstop long-term than Seager is.
It is a tough call and I don't feel I can go wrong either way, but I will go
with Seager due to being slightly younger and slightly out-hitting Russell in
Double-A.”
1.6) Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Even though we are not required to field an actual team in this exercise,
obviously shortstops that can do everything are highly valuable. In the Cubs
infield orgy of offense, Russell seems like the one most likely to ultimately
claim the position. Love his patience, contact ability, power, and if his
legs are healthy, he could be a five-category contributor. Worst-case scenario,
he ends up at second base, where his broad base of skills remain valuable. I
briefly considered Lucas Giolito and Joey Gallo for this slot, but for me,
Russell's advanced profile gives him a slight edge.”
1.7) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“I would prefer to be in Bret's spot, as there are a couple of guys I value
similarly here, but Syndergaard offers an ideal combination of proximity,
safety and upside to headline my minor-league roster. His second half
numbers—3.54 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings—were particularly
impressive for a 21-year-old in the Pacific Coast League, and at 6-foot-6,
240 pounds, he is equipped to handle 200-plus inning seasons. The Mets might
have the most starting pitching depth in the majors, but that won't stop
Syndergaard from forcing his way into the rotation this season.”
1.8) Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“It was going to be a very tough call between Sano and Syndergaard here, but
I’m glad I didn’t have to make it (though I didn’t have a choice when it
came time to do my rankings). Despite missing all of the 2014, Sano still
boasts the same potential 40-homer power and has an outside chance to make
his major league debut later in the season. The average will always be a
struggle, but this isn’t a Mark Reynolds situation—he does have the talent
to hit around .260 if the hit tool progresses to its current capacity. Gallo
is the current power darling of the minors, and while he would have been a
reasonable pick, Sano is the better fantasy prospect.”
1.9) Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers (Chris Crawford, Draft to the Show/ESPN)
“The risks with Gallo are obvious: he's never going to be much more than
a .240 hitter at the big league level because of his contact issues, and his
value drops somewhat precipitously if he does have to move across the
diamond. With that being said, few—if any—prospects can match his raw or
in-game power, and his approach at the plate took a major step forward in 2014.
A corner infielder who can get on base at an average rate and give you 35
plus homer seasons is a valuable commodity, even if he's not likely to help
you with batting average or stolen bases.”
1.10) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“My normal tendency in dynasty leagues is to get players that are closer to
the big leagues. I want as much data against good competition as I can get,
and I like solid floors. I don't want to waste a ton of roster spots on
lottery tickets. But this one I can't resist. Dude can't even drink beer
legally yet and he's taking walks, making contact, hitting for a bit of
power, and flashing the glove at shortstop. As the 19-year-old fills out, I
like him to approach league-average power in the bigs, with some speed. And I
don't doubt Crawford's ability to stick at the position, as he's made some
improvements in the last year-plus and is a good athlete. He's ready for
Double-A, his team needs a shortstop, and I think he could play in the big
leagues in 2016, too. So I'm not too far from my comfort zone.“
1.11) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Not gonna overthink this. Yes, there's plenty of risk here. There's also
more fantasy upside than any other pitcher in the minors can bring, and we're
probably only two seasons away from Giolito seeing the majors. Does the TJ on
record make me nervous? Yes. Am I thrilled that he's yet to throw 100-plus
professional innings in one season? No. But we're talking about a potential
fantasy monster, the type of pitcher who could annually finish as a top-five
starter in his prime. I want impact potential within a two-year timetable in
the first round of a draft like this, and Giolito provides that in spades. I
also considered Garin Cecchini <3.“
1.12) Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
"Pederson enjoyed one of the better seasons in minor league history in 2014,
as the 22-year-old was named MVP of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after
leading the league in home runs (33), OPS (1.017), on-base percentage (.435),
runs scored (106), walks (100) and total bases (259). He also became the first
Pacific Coast League player to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season
since 1934. While he struggled with the Dodgers as a September call-up,
Pederson’s allure from a fantasy perspective is obvious as a potential
five-category contributor. That said, I don’t expect him to hit for average
as he has in the minor leagues; but it also shouldn’t be unexpectedly low.
Regardless, I think he’s a 20/20 guy as a near-everyday player and could
achieve such status next season as a rookie."
1.13) Rusney Castillo, OF, Boston Red Sox (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“Castillo is already 27, so I was a little hesitant about taking him here
initially. There's also still a bit of an unknown quantity factor with him.
Ultimately, I couldn't pass up on the upside. Castillo was known for his
speed in Cuba and has gotten stronger since, so there's some intriguing power
potential as well. He's aggressive at the plate, but shouldn't hurt in batting
average either. Admittedly, I wouldn't feel nearly as secure about this if I
didn't see his brief sneak preview last September, but I think he's capable
of 15-plus homers and 20-plus stolen bases right away.”
1.14) Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)
“While I'm not particularly thrilled about grabbing an arm in the first round,
such are the perils of picking 14th overall. While I considered Archie Bradley
for his immediacy/upside combination, I was ultimately swayed toward Urias.
There's essentially nothing negative on his resume aside from a lack of
innings, and while that will affect his impact early on, it's something he
should grow into without a problem. He should be able to rack up strikeouts
by the bushel, even if there's some attrition as he pushes towards throwing
deeper into games. He could reach the majors as soon as next year, although
again, that impact will be muted by a lack of overall innings. Even without
reaching the majors quickly, Urias is one of the top talents in the minors
and his fantasy stock will continue to trend upwards as he tears through
higher levels. I think he can be a SP1 in fantasy, even if he falls short of
ace status in the majors.”
1.15) David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The Rockies can't decide whether to rebuild or not, but it will happen soon
enough. Their farm is stocked with solid prospects and the top hitting
prospect is outfielder David Dahl. He possesses the power and speed combo
that all fantasy owners drool over. The soon-to-be 21-year-old will start the
year at High-A with a promotion to Double-A in the cards if he can master
High-A like he did Low-A. The fact that he will play half of his games at
Coors Field made my decision that much easier.”
Round Two
2.16) Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (Ray Guilfoyle, Fake Teams)
“The Pirates outfield is pretty much set for the next 4-5 years, but Meadows
could make the Pirates front office think twice when approached about dealing
one of their three excellent outfielders in a few years. Meadows' first full
season in pro ball was cut short due to injury. When healthy, Meadows showed
a solid power and an excellent eye at the plate. He has the tools to make a
big jump in prospect rankings by midseason.”
2.17) Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (Craig Goldstein, Baseball
Prospectus)
“Better in real life than he is in fantasy, I couldn't pass up the opportunity
to snag Lindor here in the second round. He should provide value as soon as
2015, and while he's a special, instinctual defender, he's overlooked at the
plate because of it. While the power has yet to show itself fully in the
minors, he's not an empty threat at the plate, with 10-12 home runs as an
attainable goal, possibly providing more in a peak season. He should be able
to hit for average, and beyond home runs, he makes hard contact that should
result in plenty of doubles. His instincts help his speed play up on the
basepaths and he should be able to contribute 20 stolen bases regularly. I
know it's not the sexiest offensive profile, but a potential five-category
contributor who can go 10/20 from shortstop in relatively short order? I'll
take it.”
2.18) Blake Swihart, C, Boston Red Sox (D.J. Short, Rotoworld)
“I wanted to wait on a pitcher at this point in the draft, so I decided to
take arguably the best catching prospect in the game. A first-round pick from
2011, Swihart made some nice strides offensively last season by batting .300
with 12 home runs and an .840 OPS across 92 games with Double-A Portland. The
switch-hitting backstop scuffled a bit after moving up to Triple-A, but it
was a small sample and doesn't diminish what he accomplished overall. Swihart
will begin his age 23-year-old season in the minors, but he could make his
major league debut later this year and push Christian Vazquez for the
starting job before long. Without getting into comps, I see someone who could
hit in the .270-280 range with 15-plus homers annually while playing solid
defense behind the plate. That's a very valuable player in real life and
fantasy.”
2.19) Yasmany Tomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Mike Rosenbaum, Bleacher Report)
"There were countless guys I considered with for my second pick, but I
ultimately went with Tomas knowing that he and Rusney Castillo would probably
come off the board in short order. Honestly, I don’t know anything more
about the Cuban slugger than the next guy; but if the Diamondbacks were
willing to drop over $68 million on him, then I’m willing to gamble on him
with this pick. He’ll be given a chance to play third base, but Tomas is
better suited for a corner outfield position. His bat, meanwhile, profiles at
any corner spot, as he’s a power-oriented offensive player with an uppercut
swing and aggressive approach."
2.20) Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (Ben Carsley, Baseball Prospectus)
“Winding up with two pitchers for my first two picks is terrifying, but if
you have to bet on two arms, these are two pretty stellar choices. Bradley's
2014 was disappointing, obviously, and his command will need to take a step
up before he's truly a no. 1 or 2 fantasy starter. Even if that doesn't
happen for a few years, he should reach the majors in 2015, and while he's
learning how to be around the plate more often he can still rack up strikeouts
with a low ERA. Pairing him with Giolito, who's a few years away but somehow
has even more upside, could win me a lot of strikeout crowns.”
2.21) Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox (Eno Sarris, FanGraphs)
“I'd like to wait on pitching, too, but there were a few factors with
Carlos Rodon that made me grab for the South Sider. First, he's close. He'll
get big-league time this year, whether it’s in the ‘pen or the rotation,
and I'd rather not wait three years to find out if my pitcher's a bust.
Secondly, the velocity on the fastball and the bite on the slider are very
compelling. Personally, I think the change will be enough to make the package
work, and I'm willing to blame the poor minor league walk rates on the
mechanical changes he was attempting to make. His college history doesn't
suggest to me that he'll flame out due poor command. I like Chicago's history
with developing pitchers, and I love Rodon's stuff.”
2.22) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (Chris Crawford, Draft to the
Show/ESPN)
“There's only one pitching prospect I think has better swing-and-miss stuff
than Glasnow, and that's Carlos Rodon. Since Eno stole him from me, I'll
"settle" for the next best thing. I have some concerns about the control, but
with a 70-grade fastball and curveball that seemingly jumps up a grade every
year, I believe Glasnow is a potential no. 1 starter who will post low ERAs
and give you plenty of strikeouts, as well.”
2.23) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (Bret Sayre, Baseball Prospectus)
“At this point, I’m just considering taking all of the Tommy John recoverees
and naming my team ‘The TJ House’. The fact that Bundy went behind Rodon
(who I like a lot) and Glasnow (who scares the bejesus out of me) speaks to
how overlooked Bundy is after a year off and a couple of months of erratic
performance. The upside is still that of an SP1, even with the ballpark and
division working against him—and I like his chances of working his way into
that rotation this year. After all, it may be a crowded rotation, but if
Bundy is right, there’s no one standing in his way.”
2.24) Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers (James Anderson, Rotowire)
“Last season Mazara started to live up to the potential the Rangers were
betting on when they gave him that record-breaking signing bonus out of the
Dominican as a 16-year-old in 2012. An .840 OPS with 22 homers between Low-A
and Double-A as a 19-year-old should make owners in even the shallowest
dynasty leagues start to pay attention. Mazara’s size and raw power make him
a prototypical cleanup-hitting right fielder, and it doesn't take much
imagination to see him posting Jay Bruce-esque fantasy numbers by the end of
the decade. It took him two cracks to master Low-A, so he could spend most of
2015 at Double-A, but a 2016 debut in Arlington seems reasonable.”
2.25) Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays (Brent Hershey, BaseballHQ)
“Norris probably doesn't have MLB-ace potential, which I think I'd normally
look for in the middle of round two (if I ever did these types of drafts
before, which I haven't). But as a lefty with three plus pitches (fastball,
slider, change) and an average fourth (curveball), it's the strikeouts I'm
chasing. Across four levels in 2014, Norris K'd 176 in 132 innings, and while
that rate will decrease at the big-league level, he still has the chance to
be a 200-plus strikeout guy at maturity. And if his control would take a step
forward at some point, he might even be a fringy no. 1 starter.”
2.26) Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics (John Sickels, Minor League Ball)
“I went with Corey Seager over Addison Russell in the first round despite
Russell's positional premium. That kept my mind on high-ceiling shortstops,
and one of the best is Franklin Barreto, recently traded from the Blue Jays
to the Athletics. He's a long way off at age 18 with no full-season experience
under his belt, but in an assumed dynasty "build the best farm system you
can" format there are few shortstops with as much upside. He hit .311/.384/.481
with 29 steals in the Northwest League against older competition. His defense
needs polish but the tools to remain at shortstop are there and the bat looks
very strong at this point.”
2.27) Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians (Craig Glaser, BSports)
“After going with an MLB player in round 1 I reversed course to grab Clint
Frazier here. Frazier went at the very start of the second round in this d
raft last year, before ever playing full season ball and his first full
season showed us a little more about his game. He put up some interesting
numbers in A-ball, cracking double digits in HRs, SBs, and walk rate. I'll be
looking for him to cut the strikeouts and increase the power, but I'm happy
to grab a guy with his kind of upside here.”
2.28) Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds (Al Melchior, CBS)
“While one can't put too much stock in an Arizona Fall League stat line