http://nypost.com/2013/10/23/why-giants-dont-think-35m-for-lincecum-is-crazy/
BOSTON — Tim Lincecum, over the past two seasons, is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA.
That is the fourth-worst ERA in the majors for any pitcher with at least 300
innings between 2012-13.The guy just ahead of him on that don’t-want-to-be-
on-it list was Barry Zito (4.82) and the Giants werethankful his seven-year,
$126 monstrosity was finally over — even if he helped them win the 2012 World
Series. Yet, they instantly got into another dubious deal Tuesday, a two-year,
$35 million pact with Lincecum.The $17.5 million per-year average is the 15th-
highest ever for a pitcher. The 14th belongs to Zito($18 million).
Yet, San Francisco assistant general manager Bobby Evans, when reached
yesterday by phone, offered a reasonedargument for doing this deal:
1. The Giants were going to place the qualifying offer ($14.1 million) on
Lincecum to assure if he left,they would receive draft-pick compensation. If
he stayed, that would be his 2014 salary. If they then offered the tender next
year and it had about the same increase ($800,000) that it had between 2012-13
, then the Giants could, through this process, have Lincecum for two years at
$29 million — not incredibly far off thetwo-year deal the sides actually reached.
2. Lincecum was going to reject the tender. At that point, there would be
open bidding and the Giants had received enough inquiries in the late-July
trade market to believe several teams would pursue him — and pursuit in free
agency usually means rising prices. It was possible the Mets could have been
among his suitors; perhaps even the Yankees if they were shut out on convincing
Hiroki Kuroda to come back or failed to win the post for Masahiro Tanaka.
3. The Giants wanted to retain Lincecum. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are
their only two sure-thing rotation members next year, and San Francisco did not
want to have to find three starters in this market rather than two (as an aside
, expect the Giants to be among those pursuing Tanaka).
4. The Giants drafted, developed and like Lincecum. The Freak is a fan favorite
. He is a key to twochampionships. He has won two Cy Young Awards.
5. Even pitching poorly the past two years, Lincecum went to the bullpen
during the 2012 postseason and was a vital weapon, plus he threw a no-hitter
this year and struck out about the same average per nine innings (8.79) as
likely Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (8.85).Kershaw and Adam Wainwright (each
with 66 starts) were the only NL pitchers to start more often than Lincecum
(65) the past two years, offsetting some of the worries his Freakish delivery
would cause injury. In 2013 Lincecum had a 4.37 ERA and the Giants feel it was
inflated because 12 of his inherited runners scored (the second-highest total
in the majors). You may remember, for example, he left his next-to-last start,
Sept. 20 at Yankee Stadium, with the bases loaded and two outs, and the score
1-1. Reliever George Kontos wasgreeted by an Alex Rodriguez grand slam.
6. Lincecum’s fastball has dropped 2 mph on average the past two years (from
92 to 90). But, Evans said, Lincecum came to peace he has to keep throwing it
and just spot it better to make his off-speed repertoire work. The Giants’
feeling was Lincecum came to camp in better shape this year and executed better
pitch-to-pitch than in the disastrous 2012 regular season (5.18 ERA). There
is still work to be done, Evans explained, notably getting Lincecum to pitch
down in the zone more because when the righty is up he gets beat up badly.
Though the Giants do not think a Cy is returning soon, they do feel
Lincecum is evolving and — in Evans’ words — “has upside and we are not
sure there are many guys in this free-agent market you could say that about.”
7. Put all of this together and San Francisco believed on the open market,
Lincecum would have had suitors at a significant salary and — just as vital —
it might have had to pay more to find his replacement. Lincecum was willing to
do a short-term deal to try to reestablish his value — he is just 29 — and go
back into the market soon to try to chase the mega-deal. Since the risk was
only two years and the Giants accepted they had to pay a premium to keep him
from getting onto the free-agent market when the World Series ends, they were
willing to try to find common ground. They figured it needed to be more than
the two years at $29 million that would come via the tenders and less than the
two-year, $40 million deal he was just concluding. Thus, they came to two years
at $35 million.
“Obviously, for us, the perfect numbers is always lower,” Evans said. “At
the same time, getting him off the market and keeping him a Giant on a short-
term deal was very attractive.”
大致翻譯一下
==============================================================
為什麼巨人不認為花35M/2Y簽Lincecum是件瘋狂的事情
巨人助理GM Bobby Evans提供了幾點說明:
1. 巨人是可以提供QO的等值報價(14.1M)給Lincecum，再加上來年的延長合約，也差不多
是29M/2Y，跟現在的報價也沒差太多
2. Linceum將會拒絕這份報價並且成為FA進入市場，而經由今年7月份的補強大限，巨人
也確信有幾支球隊會對Lincecum提出報價，而且FA後勢必價格會上漲。可能的競爭對手
是大都會和洋基(如果沒再和黑田續簽或是沒搶到田中求敗)。
3.巨人想保有Lincecum,Matt Cain,Madison Bumgarner為明年的先發三人組(Vogelsong可
能不會撿Option另外降薪簽回)比起只掌握雙先發當然三先發是比較好 (如果能搶到田中
求敗又是另一個可能...)
4.Lincecum是巨人選的、自己養的、2次世界大賽的關鍵、拿到2次賽揚、並且是球迷的最
愛，感情因素BJ4
5.去年Lincecum雖然有個很糟糕的球季，但是k/9和書僮一樣漂亮(8.79和8.85)。先發
場次只比書僮和Wainwright少一場，這也抵消了一些認為他詭異的投球姿勢會讓他受傷
的疑慮。另外Lincecum的ERA為4.37，高漲的ERA有很大的原因是壘上有人被接替的投手
放回來的分數為全聯盟第二高(inherited runners scored不會翻請高手幫忙QQ)
6.雖然Licecum的速球均速比去年掉了2mph (92>90)，不過整體來說比起去年要來的好。
但需要努力的工作還有很多，而Evans認為Licecum是個還在不斷進化的投手，這個在FA
市場上是很少見的
7.綜合以上幾點，Lincecum被評估如果放上FA會有對手提供不錯的報價，而要找到替代方
案可能會花更多錢，而用短約來證明Lincecem的效益是OK的阿，他才29歲耶。巨人評估
2年的風險是可接受且花頂級薪水簽下來比起放到FA要來的划算。彼此的共識就是29M跟
40M之間，因此35M出線。
"對球隊來說，能夠用更低的薪資簽下來當然更好"
"但只用短約就能夠讓他離開市場並留在巨人實在很有吸引力"
Evans說~