Up until 2012, I had avoided doing farm system rankings. Here is the
introduction I wrote about them last year:
People have asked me to do it constantly over the years, but I guess I read too
much post-modern stuff in college and the idea of saying "this farm system is
better than that farm system" never appealed to me outside of generalities. By
this I mean, everyone knows the Blue Jays farm system (one of the best) is
better than the Marlins farm system (one of the worst), but an actual ranking
of all 30 teams in "order" never interested me. One could say with a great
measure of accuracy that the Padres and Rangers have better farm systems than
the Astros and White Sox, but saying that "the Athletics are 11th and the
Pirates are 12th" was a statement containing within it so many subjective
assumptions that it could not possibly be considered objectively true.
There is obviously a huge amount of interest in these kinds of lists, so
despite my misgivings, I decided "what the hell" and have worked up a list of
my own. There is a mathematical component that plays into this. . .However, the
following list is not based solely on a formula, and some teams were moved up
or down a few notches for various reasons.
The list tries to find a balance between everything. Both high-end impact
talent and overall depth are considered. I probably consider depth more than
some other analysts. I've been working on this list for about a week and I
could tinker with it forever, but it's time to get things moving, so here goes.
That's all still true. Things can change fast of course: the Marlins farm
system is now better than the Jays system, so the example I used in the intro
last year changed rapidly. Which is kind of the point I was trying to make:
these things are very fluid.
Anyway, here is my list for 2013. This is not based solely on a mathematical
formula or compilation of player grades; there is a subjective component as
well. Note that this is only looking at players who are still rookie eligible.
1) St. Louis Cardinals (ranked #5 last year): Strengths: Everything. They have
pitching, hitting, high upside, and depth. They have a proven track record of
player development. Weaknesses: none really. They could use a shortstop with a
better bat but so could most teams.
2) Seattle Mariners (#4 last year): Strength: Good balance between hitting and
pitching, strength up the middle with Zunino, Miller, Franklin; potential ace
arms; good knack for finding underappreciated college hitters. Weaknesses:
Persistent problems with Latin American prospects showing poor strike zone
judgment and contact issues.
3) Tampa Bay Rays (#7): System was already strong and trade with Royals just
adds more. Strength: considerable pitching depth; good mix of players who will
be ready now/soon (Myers, Archer, Odorizzi) plus guys at lower levels with high
upside. Weaknesses: upper level hitting other than Myers.
4) Texas Rangers (3): System in transitional phase but still among the best in
the game, headlined by Profar and Olt. Strengths: lots and lots of high-upside
players, strong up-the-middle depth, low-level bats with big upside.
Weaknesses: pitching is not as good as the hitting, no one stands out as a
future ace, needs to show they can develop the tools guys into actual players.
5) Pittsburgh Pirates (12): System improving rapidly. Strengths: high upside
pitching arms (Cole, Taillon, Heredia) with depth to back them up, lots of C+
types. Breakthrough seasons from Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco point to
improvement in Latin American acquisitions. Weaknesses: big investments in high
school pitching have not paid off. More hitting depth would be helpful.
6) San Diego Padres (2): This system is still persistently underrated. Jedd
Gyorko is poster boy for that. Strengths: tons and tons of depth, large number
of prospects in the B/B-/C+ range, could look even better if recent high school
pitching drafts take off in '13. Weaknesses: hitting is weaker than pitching
but it isn't bad, especially if Austin Hedges continues to hit. Expensive
investments in high school tools players have not panned out (Donavan Tate,
Everett Williams).
7) Minnesota Twins (17): Strengths: hitting. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks will
be ready to help the outfield sometime in 2013. Enormous upside in players like
Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Weaknesses: lack of
high upside arms although that's improved thanks to '12 draft and winter trades
that brought in Alex Meyer and Trevor May. If new group of arms develops
properly, this could be a top three system by end of '13.
8) Miami Marlins (29): Quick turnaround here. Strengths: star power at the top
with Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez. Trades have added some depth
(Marisnick, Nicolino, Hechavarria, Dietrich, Brantly). Some sleeper pitching
arms (Charlie Lowell, Mason Hope). Weaknesses: much of the improvement is due
to trades and not internal development, especially on the hitting side.
9) Boston Red Sox (11): Very solid farm system. Strengths: Bogaerts can/will be
an All-Star, and Bradley should be a strong regular. Good depth in Grade B-/C+
types. System could jump several spots next year if low-level sleepers (Cody
Kukuk, Jose Vinicio for example) take a step forward. Weaknesses: some of the
tools guys and livelier arms haven't developed as hoped.
10) Chicago Cubs (20): Another system that has improved quickly. Strengths:
hitting at the top: Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Dan Vogelbach is a
very impressive quartet and there is depth beyond them. Good developments with
recent Latin American prospects at the lower levels. Weaknesses: pitching is
much, much weaker than the hitting. Improving that has to be a priority.
11) Houston Astros (25): Another system that has improved rapidly. Strengths:
2012 draft class looks excellent thanks to inventive exploitation of new draft
rules. Trades have dramatically improved system depth. Potential impact bats in
Singleton, Correa, Springer. Weaknesses: pitching is weaker than hitting
especially at the higher levels, no obvious rotation anchor types are close to
the majors. It will take time for recent draftees to filter through system.
12) New York Mets (15): Strengths: strong at the top with trade acquisitions
Zack Wheeler, Travis D'arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard all ranking as Grade A-
prospects. Pitching in general is a strength, with large amount of depth behind
the top group. Weaknesses: impact hitting behind D'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores.
13) Arizona Diamondbacks (9): Strengths: good group of pitching prospects, with
Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, David Holmberg a sound group with
several of C+/B- beyond them. Weaknesses: Impact hitting, though Adam Eaton and
Matt Davidson can be regulars and Stryker Trahan must be watched closely.
Overall a solid system.
14) New York Yankees (16): Strengths: quartet of young hitters at the top, with
Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Mason Williams, and Slade Heathcott all potential
impact prospects, though all have some questions. Good depth in C+ types behind
them. Weaknesses: impact pitching. I don't count Manny Banuelos as an automatic
Tommy John recovery. Wildcard: Rafael DePaula, who could vault up lists quickly
once he pitches against people his own age.
15) Cincinnati Reds (21): Strengths: pitching at the top with Robert
Stephenson, Dan Corcino, Tony Cingrani and additional arms to back them up.
Weaknesses: offense, once you get past Billy Hamilton and Jesse Winker though
there are some bats at the lower levels that could develop. As with Arizona,
this is a solid system in a transition phase and ranking here is no insult.
16) Colorado Rockies (13): Strengths: hitting at the top, with Trevor Story,
David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, Kyle Parker all potential regulars if not more, with
valuable role players behind them. Weaknesses: pitching. I like Edwar Cabrera,
but he's unusual and everyone behind him has a red flag of some kind. As with
Arizona and Cincinnati, this is a solid mid-range system with a lot to offer
but some holes to fill.
17) San Francisco Giants (26): Strengths: Pitching! Kyle Crick, Chris Stratton,
Clayton Blackburn are all strong rotation candidates for the future and there
are some nice lefties too (Mike Kickham, Steven Okert, Josh Osich, Adalberto
Mejia) plus bullpen material. Weaknesses: Hitting. I have a lot of mixed
feelings about Gary Brown, Joe Panik, and Francisco Peguero. Can Mac Williamson
be the needed impact bat?
18) Baltimore Orioles (19): This is where the big dropoff starts, as Orioles
are clearly weaker than the teams ahead of them. Strengths: Dylan Bundy and
Kevin Gausman are both potential aces and there are some decent arms backing
them up though more depth will help. Weaknesses: with Manny Machado in the
majors, hitting is a weak spot though I do like Jonathan Schoop. This system is
improving but needs more time.
19) Los Angeles Dodgers (22): Strengths: Good hitting group at the top with Joc
Pederson, Corey Seager, and Yasiel Puig. Some decent C+ pitching in the system.
Weaknesses: general lack of depth, especially on pitching side with a group of
arms that may or may not develop. I don't see Zach Lee as an ace at this point.
System was thin due to financial limits but is turning around quickly due to
monetary infusion. With the Logan White and his scouts unleashed, improvement
should continue rapidly.
20) Philadelphia Phillies (24): Strengths: Good pitching depth with Jesse
Biddle, Adam Morgan, Austin Wright standing out; they seem to find nice
lefties. They also have a habit of finding Tyler Cloyd types that scouts don't
like but who get people out. Some nice right-handers too with Ethan Martin and
Jon Pettibone nearly ready to contribute, plus considerable bullpen material.
Weaknesses: Hitting. Heavy investments in tools players have not panned out.
Untoolsy Darin Ruf was a nice surprise though. Not a terrible system, clearly
better than the teams behind them.
21) Kansas City Royals (6): James Shields trade cuts the heart out of this farm
system, so they better win now. Strengths: some good arms remain headlined by
Kyle Zimmer and Yordano Ventura. There are some intriguing tools guys at lower
levels who could develop. Weaknesses: Overall hitting depth at the upper
levels. Will Bubba Starling, Adalberto Mondesi, Orlando Calixte, Jorge
Bonifacio, Cheslor Cuthbert, and Elier Hernandez put their tools to good use?
Wildcard: right-hander Miguel Almonte.
22) Toronto Blue Jays (1): Another system gutted by recent trades by a team
pushing to win in 2013. Remaining strengths: pitching, with Aaron Sanchez,
Roberto Osuna, Marcus Stroman, and underappreciated Sean Nolin a nice quartet
at the top and more live arms behind them. Weaknesses: they have a lot of tools
guys who haven't shown they can play baseball yet. If they pan out, the Jays
will move back up the list quickly.
23) Milwaukee Brewers (28): Strengths: Lots of B-/C+ types and potential role
players which every team needs. A couple of nice pitchers at the top and ready
to help with Wily Peralta, Tyler Thornburg. Weaknesses: impact talent,
especially on the hitting side, although the 2012 draft could change that
quickly if Victor Roache and Clint Coulter produce as expected. Not an elite
system but not empty, and could look a lot better a year from now.
24) Cleveland Indians (27): I thought this system could take a big step forward
but it didn't really happen. Strengths: Trevor Bauer and some lively arms
behind him. Middle infield depth beginning with Francisco Lindor and Dorssys
Paulino. Weaknesses: uninspired performances from young tools players at the
lower levels, but there is still time for those guys to come around. The
Indians remain an organization that could take a big leap forward in ‘13.
25) Washington Nationals (14): Graduations and trades have quickly weakened the
talent down on the farm over the last year, but Mike Rizzo and company should
be able to recharge quickly and the major league roster is young and strong.
Strengths: Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin have star potential. Considerable
raw material for a pitching staff. Weaknesses: They are banking a lot on
injured pitchers recovering well. Many prospects are too old for their levels.
26) Oakland Athletics (10): Like the Nationals, graduations have quickly
thinned the talent in the minors, but that's just fine at this point given how
well many of the rookies performed last year. Strengths: 2012 draft brought in
several interesting bats beginning with possible superstar Addison Russell.
Good depth in potential relief pitching. Weaknesses: impact hitting and
starting pitching at the upper levels.
27) Atlanta Braves (8): System thinned out very quickly due to graduations,
trades, injuries. Strengths: There is still good depth in pitching, though the
highest ceiling arm (Julio Teheran) is enigmatic. Weaknesses: hitting. Tools
players like Christian Bethancourt and Edward Salcedo are developing poorly
with the bat.
28) Chicago White Sox (30): White Sox scouts can find players when given the
resources to do so, but years of cheapskate draft strategy and poor non-Cuban
Latin American focus have crippled system depth. Strengths: toolsy outfielders,
with Courtney Hawkins looking excellent from 2012 draft. Weaknesses: overall
depth, particularly with potential starting pitching. It will be interesting to
see if new GM Rick Hahn can turn this around quickly.
29) Los Angeles Angels (18): Big drop now that Mike Trout has graduated and
other players have been traded. Strengths: decent group of position players
with Kaleb Cowart the best of the lot. Several potential bullpen arms.
Weaknesses: impact pitching, especially potential starting pitchers. Overall
depth.
30) Detroit Tigers (23): Very thin in all respects. Strengths: Nick Castellanos
and Avisail Garcia could help soon, and there are some potential role players
behind them. Bullpen arms. Weaknesses: lack of depth almost everywhere,
particularly hitting.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm-system-rankings