http://www.murraychass.com/?p=5405
The winners of the post-season awards won’t be known for a couple of weeks,
but the debate over the American League most valuable player is already
heated and figures only to get hotter. It should come as no surprise that
new-age statistics are generating the heat.
MVP之爭的話題大概還會再吵一陣子
Proponents of WAR, which means “wins above replacement,” insist that the
Angels’ terrific rookie Mike Trout should obviously win the award. Those of
us who use common sense, not common statistics, say the winner should be the
Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera.
WAR的信徒堅持Trout是明顯的選擇
而用常識判斷的我們認為得主是Cabrera
The Trout supporters would vote for him because he had the top WAR rating
among all players. That thinking only reinforces my view that to satisfy
stats zealots a list of statistics should be used to determine award winners
and Hall of Famers. No voters would be needed.
Trout支持者用WAR判斷 這更證實了我的看法: 數據狂只想用一系列的數字決定獎項和
名人堂 而把票選排除掉
First in WAR, first for m.v.p. Establish statistical criteria for the Hall of
Fame and induct the players who clear the statistical hurdles. The reason the
stats zealots would like this system is it would eliminate members of the
Baseball Writers Association as voters.
數據狂用數據作為判斷MVP/名人堂的分水嶺 他們喜歡這套系統 因為這可以排除
作家協會的票選
That’s right, the stats zealots are envious of the baseball writers because
they get to vote for these things and the zealots don’t. That is not to say
that new-age statistics haven’t started creeping into the award decisions of
some of the BBWAA voters, presumably the younger, less experienced ones.
是的 因為他們忌妒記者有票選權而他們沒有 當然現在數據也慢慢滲透到
某些記者協會的成員 可能是那些比較年輕沒有經驗的人
But why Cabrera over Trout? Cabrera gave baseball a Triple Crown winner for
the first time in 45 years, making his achievement a rare feat. Cabrera led
the Tigers to a division championship and the playoffs. On the day the Tigers
clinched, Cabrera had four hits, including a home run.
為什麼Cabrera勝過Trout? Cabrera是45年來第一位三冠王 帶領老虎進入季後賽
封王戰四安打一轟
Most valuable players often come from teams that get to the post-season.
Arguments can be made about the relative value of players to their teams, but
if one candidate leads his team to the playoffs and another candidate doesn’
t, the latter player’s value comes into question.
最有價值球員通常來自季後賽球隊 沒帶球隊進季後賽的球員價值如何和
有進季後賽的相比?
As good as Trout was this year, what did he do for the Angels? They were only
on the fringe of the American League West race, and they began dropping back
in the A.L. wild-card race in mid-August and getting back in it when it was
too late.
Trout再好 天使表現如何? 他們只能勉強算有競爭季後賽 而當八月中後就開始勞賽
The Tigers had to fight all season to dislodge the Chicago White Sox from
first place, and Cabrera was in the forefront of their fight.
老虎整季都在和白襪競爭 而Cabrera是老虎的老大
I don’t know how the vote will come out, but I saw the other day that
another writer took up the case against the zealots. Writing on ESPN.com,
Peter Blake of ESPN The Magazine said:
我不知道最後票選結果會如何 但我看到又一位作家對數據派開砲
在ESPN上:
“I’ve had just about enough of this sabermetric correctness pervading the
debate about who should win the AL MVP. Miguel Cabrera won MLB’s first
Triple Crown in 45 years, but support for his candidacy has been called ‘
Luddite,’ ‘a backlash against progress,’ ‘irresponsible’ and a ‘mistake.
’ New-breed statheads seem to think it’s simply irrational that anyone
other than Mike Trout could be most valuable.
“Well, I hate to break it to my fellow professional geeks, but they are
utterly wrong in how they’re thinking about this argument. As a result, they
’ve rushed to judgment in anointing Trout.
“Many Trout backers are using a stat called Wins Above Replacement to
capture the broad swath of the superstar rookie’s talents. WAR is an
ubermetric that measures how many wins a player contributed to his team
compared with a replacement-level player, based on his value at the plate, on
the bases and in the field. This season, Trout amassed, according to
Baseball-Reference.com, a whopping 10.7 WAR — one of the 50 highest marks in
modern baseball history. Cabrera finished with 6.9 WAR.”
"我受夠那些無視Cabrera三冠王的數據派了 他們好像認為Trout以外的選擇都是不合理的"
"Trout的WAR勝過Cabrera......"
I wasn’t able to read the rest of the piece because it required being an “
ESPN Insider” and I am not an ESPN Insider. For all I know, somewhere in the
rest of the piece the writer might completely reverse his view. I hope he didn
’t; it’s heartening to read someone who hasn’t gone over to the dark side.
我沒有ESPN的帳號所以沒看完全部文章 據我所知 他文章的某段有完全相反的看法
我希望他不是這麼寫
One added note: Some critics of the m.v.p. voting have called for a more
precise definition of m.v.p. What they basically want is for the award to go
to the best player, the one with the best statistics (although I would ask
which ones).
另外 有些MVP票選批評者希望有更好衡量MVP的方式 他們的意思是直接頒獎給數據最好
的那位 (雖然我會問說: 是哪個數據?)
To me, the beauty of the BBWAA’s m.v.p. voting is it challenges voters to
study and think about the contributions players made to the success of their
teams. It raises interesting questions, too.
對我而言 票選最好的地方是它讓投票員思考最有"價值"這個有趣的問題
Should Trout, for example, be penalized in m.v.p. consideration because the
Angels weren’t good enough to take advantage of what he did for them? In
Prince Fielder, did Cabrera have more help in helping the Tigers win than
Trout had from any of his teammates?
舉例來說 Trout應該因為天使的戰績而被低估嗎? Cabrera是否從肥王子身上
得到比Trout更多的幫助
What fans and new-age nerds should understand, if they don’t already, is
most valuable players is not the same as player of the year. Player of the
year is much simpler to decide, and – who knows? – maybe Trout is the
player of the year. But he is not the most valuable player, no matter what
WAR says. WAR, you see, does not have a vote in this election.
數據宅要了解 最有價值球員不等於年度球員 年度球員比較容易決定-誰知道-
或許Trout是年度球員 但他不是最有價值球員 不管WAR怎麼說
WAR沒有投票權