翻譯一下關鍵部分
※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/7wykqlv
: A couple of hours ago, the Giants announced that they reached an agreement
: with Matt Cain on a five year deal worth just over $110 million. Wendy Thurm
: has already recapped the contract and why this is probably fair market value
: for a quality pitcher with no health problems headed into his age 27 season.
: And, she’s probably right – if the Giants wanted to keep Cain, they weren’
: t going to be able to do it for less than this. This isn’t a situation where
: they just overpaid irrationally. Their options were either to sign him for
: this price or watch him get more money from another team next winter. They
: chose the former.
老人和Cain達成超過$110M的新合約。事實上﹐巨人基本不可能以更低的約綁住Cain.
其實這不是非理性的overpay, 他們要麼現在簽﹐要不下個冬天看他以更高的價格簽約
其他球隊。老人選擇了前者﹐但我(作者)寧願選擇後者。
: I would have chosen the latter.
: Matt Cain is a good pitcher. How good he’d perform in another set of
: circumstances – different ballpark, different division, different pitching
: coach, etc… – isn’t quite as well determined, but we’ve got a pretty good
: idea that Cain is good at preventing runs in the context he’s currently in.
: Over the last six years, he’s thrown 1,300 innings and posted an ERA- of 80,
: meaning that he prevented runs at a rate of 20 percent above average.
: Quantity and quality is a good package. It just doesn’t predict future
: success as well as you might think.
: Starting in 2002, here are some rolling six year windows where pitchers threw
: at least 1,000 innings, the examples of pitchers around Cain’s age that
: performed in a similar manner, and how they did going forward.
: 2002-2007
: Carlos Zambrano, ages 21-26: 1,186 IP, 75 ERA-, 87 FIP-, 92 xFIP-
: While Cain has better command than Zambrano, both got significantly better
: results than their BB/K/GB rates would have suggested for a long period of
: time. Like Cain, Zambrano was extremely durable, and had shouldered heavy
: workloads while still taking the mound every five days. However, 2007 was the
: last year that Zambrano managed 200 innings in a season, and he’s been a
: significant disappointment ever since.
: Jake Peavy, ages 21-26: 1,087 IP, 83 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 82 xFIP-
: Peavy and Cain have a lot in common. Lots of success in pitchers parks in the
: NL West, got better as they aged, and showed a strong track record heading
: into their age 27 seasons. 2007 was Peavy’s best year, and marked the third
: consecutive year he’d topped the 200 inning level. He hasn’t gotten over
: 174 since, struggling with both health issues and diminished performance.
: Mark Buehrle, ages 23-28: 1,357 IP, 83 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 95 xFIP-
: Finally, some good news. Buehrle’s another guy who has consistently beat his
: peripherals and showed extreme durability early in his career. That hasn’t
: changed at all in the last four years, as he’s still the exact same 200
: inning workhorse he’s always been.
: 2003-2008
: CC Sabathia, ages 22-27: 1,269 IP, 78 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 84 xFIP-
: Sabathia was another young workhorse who has managed to both stay healthy and
: stay excellent, but it’s worth noting that he succeeded with a more
: traditional skillset of limiting walks and getting a ton of strikeouts. He’s
: always been excellent at the three things a pitcher has the most control
: over, so for him, it was more of a question of staying healthy rather than
: sustaining abnormal run prevention skills. He stayed healthy and has been
: fantastic since.
: Josh Beckett, ages 23-28: 1,057 IP, 86 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 82 xFIP-
: Beckett couldn’t match Cain’s track record for health and durability, but
: he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in his mid-20s, and strung
: together four consecutive seasons with at least 175 innings pitched. Yet, his
: three years since have brought declined in performance and durability, and he
: ’s regressed somewhat from his prior form.
: John Lackey, ages 24-29: 1,216 IP, 86 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 90 xFIP-
: Like Cain, Lackey’s value was built through quantity rather than just sheer
: dominance, and he provided the Angels with a long run of solid but
: unspectacular performances. His last three years have been a weird mix of
: good, bad, and ugly, and now he’s going to spend the 2012 season rehabbing
: from Tommy John surgery.
: Brandon Webb, ages 24-29: 1,315 IP, 71 ERA-, 75 FIP-, 75 xFIP-
: Webb was the total package, combining elite performance with the ability to
: throw 200 innings year in and year out. He was in the running for the title
: of the best pitcher in baseball. Then, he blew out his arm, and he’s thrown
: just four innings in the Major Leagues over the last three years. His career,
: at this point, appears to be over.
: 2004-2009
: Dan Haren, ages 23-28: 1,154 IP, 80 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 81 xFIP-
: Another success story, and another guy with a lot of similarities to Cain –
: extreme durability, began as more of a good innings eater, and then steadily
: improved into a legitimate frontline guy. He’s sustained his excellence even
: after moving back to the American League, but like Sabathia, it’s been built
: on a foundation of low walks and high strikeouts.
: These eight guys represent a pretty mixed bag of future performance after
: being identified as durable, quality starters early in their careers. Haren,
: Sabathia, and Buehrle all show that Cain isn’t destined to turn into a
: pumpkin, but Zambrano, Peavy, Webb, Lackey, and Beckett suggest that past
: success doesn’t guarantee future success either.
以上列舉了8投手的很多方面﹐耐久力﹐優質先發等等。Haren,CC,Buehrle, 表明Cain不是
注定成為南瓜(應該是假貨的寓意)﹐但大Z,Peavy, Webb, 發球機﹐北極則暗示過去的好
成績並不能保証未來的成功。
: In reality, Cain’s future is something of a coin flip. He may or may not
: stay healthy. He may or may not continue to prevent hits on balls in play.
: History is littered with similar pitchers who have gone either way, and when
: you’re betting $100+ million on a guy, you should get better than 50-50 odds
: that he’ll continue to perform reasonably well going forward.
事實上﹐Cain的未來成功的概率就像扔硬幣一樣﹐50-50. 但球隊在你身上投資$100+m,你
應該比50%成功可能更好才對。
: At $22 million per year over the next five years, Matt Cain essentially needs
: to avoid all problems and continue to pitch as well as he has previously. He
: might do just that, but there’s a real risk that his arm is going to fall or
: that his performance will head the wrong way sooner than later. There’s just
: too much risk here for a team like the Giants to take on this kind of
: contract, especially with so many other pressing needs in the organization.
每年$22m﹐Cain需要表現的和過去一樣好﹐但卻是有一定的風險他的手臂不行了。
: The Giants have a built-in pitching factory with AT&T Park and Dave Righetti
: in place, and given that they’ve had a lot of success maximizing the returns
: they get on importing pitchers from other organizations, they’re in a unique
: position to avoid paying market rates for pitching and instead invest that
: capital in getting some quality position players instead. It might not have
: been the popular thing to do, but letting Cain walk at the end of the year
: and throwing $22 million at a guy who swings the bat for a living may have
: been a better use of fund.
老人處在一個獨特的位置, 可以避免用市場價簽下一個投手而簽一些其他位置的優秀球
員。也許讓Cain在賽季末離開﹐而用$22m去簽下其他打者才是更好的利用球隊的資金。