http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12948
by R.J. Anderson
Minnesota Twins: 84-78 (projected 2011 record)
Why they might win: Despite losing more big league players than they added
this offseason, the Twins appear to be the most well-rounded club in the
division with a solid rotation, good lineup and possibly reliable bullpen.
Why they might not win: All rotations are susceptible to injury, but the
Twins might be in particular because theirs includes Francisco Liriano,
Carl Pavano, Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, each of whom has been limited
by injuries to varying degrees during the past several seasons.
Player who could surprise: Reliever Anthony Slama appeared in five games
last season and did not see his minor league success carry over. PECOTA is
not allowing the struggle in a small sample size dissuade it from placing
Slama as the Twins' best reliever outside of Joe Nathan by expecting a
3.40 ERA and more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Given the
exodus of Twins relievers this winter, Slama could be tested early and
often in high-leverage situations.
Player who could disappoint: Former top prospect and No. 1 draft pick
Delmon Young experienced his first 20-plus-homer season in 2010 while
hitting .298/.333/.493 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging
percentage). Is he back on the road to superstardom? PECOTA says not so
fast and expects a relapse into the world of ineffectiveness with a
projected slash line of .283/.319/.420. Making matters worse for the Twins
are the comparisons to Josh Barfield, Jorge Cantu and Jeff Francoeur