出處：http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20680858/
By Bob Cook
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 7:46 p.m. ET Sept. 9, 2007
Tread carefully when spending big for pitching
Zambrano's new deal, recent struggles a good lesson
花大錢簽投手可要小心點
冉伯牛最近的窘況是很好的教材
A team or its fans expressing disappointment in a pitcher who signed a
long-term contract is not unprecedented, but the Chicago Cubs’ Carlos
Zambrano set a land-speed record by going only 17 days from signing date to
booing date.
球隊或球迷對簽大約的高薪球員感到失望不是新聞，不過芝加哥小熊的卡洛斯冉伯牛創
了個高速新紀錄，從簽約日到被噓日僅僅花了17天。
True, it helped that Zambrano signed his five-year, $91.5 million contract on
Aug. 17, rather than the offseason. But Zambrano’s rapid fall from grace is
a warning to general managers that as a slew of top-line, in-their-prime
pitchers hit the free-agent market over the next few years, they might want
to think twice about making a Zambrano-sized commitment.
的確，把冉伯牛以五年，九千一百五十萬，在八月十七日簽下來總比等到球季後再簽來
得好，不過冉伯牛的高速自由落體給了眾家經理一個警訊。未來幾年將有一大票高級貨
湧入自由市場，捧著大把鈔票簽人的經理們這下子可得多想想了。
Presumably, the long, shattered trail littered with the contractual bones of
the likes of Kei Igawa, A.J. Burnett, Mike Hampton, Carl Pavano, Chan Ho
Park, Darren Dreifort, Kevin Appier, Mark Davis, Troy Percival should scare
teams off of overpaying for pitching. (Are there any long-term deals that
worked for the full length of the contract other than Greg Maddux, Mike
Mussina and Pedro Martinez?) Yet it never does, and the top-line names coming
up for bid will make GM’s forget that history, putting them at risk to be
doomed to repeat it.
一長串不堪回首的人名：Kei Igawa, A.J. Burnett, Mike Hampton, Carl Pavano,
Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Kevin Appier, Mark Davis, Troy Percival。（除了
瘋狗，老穆，和嘴炮王以外，有任何人在長期合約中一直維持符合身價的表現嗎？）照理
說人們應該記取教訓啊，不過好像沒有。那些市場上的大投手們總是一次又一次地讓眾家
經理們意亂情迷，一次又一次地把大筆鈔票往外送，歷史不斷重複。（註：這裡我又想到
老人國的雞頭先生）
The pitching free-agent market is thin this offseason, the top prize being
Milwaukee closer Francisco Cordero amidst a class of steady old hands (Tom
Glavine, Curt Schilling), unsteady young ones (Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse) and
the usual mass of has-beens and never-weres. So that gives teams an excuse to
save their pennies for after the 2008 season, when Johan Santana, C.C.
Sabathia, Jon Garland and Ben Sheets hit the market, or after 2009, when Jake
Peavy, Brad Penny and John Lackey are available (assuming their teams pick up
their 2008 options, which is a safe assumption if they keep pitching at their
current level). Oh, and if you’re looking for a closer, Joe Nathan and
Francisco Rodriguez will be available after 2008.
今年季後自由市場上的投手們貨色不多，最高級的是密爾瓦基的關門人Francisco
Cordero，然後是幾個還算穩定的老人Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling，幾個不穩定的小夥
子Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse，剩下的就是些曾經是好貨或者從來就不是真貨的雜魚們。
所以各隊都有藉口把錢省下來，留到明年季後採購些高級貨，像是Johan Santana,
C.C. Sabathia, Jon Garland, Ben Sheets這些，或者更貪心一點，等到後年，還有像
Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, John Lackey（假設球隊有行使球團選擇權，如果這幾位不要太
失常，應該是個很合理的假設）這些新鮮貨呢。喔，還有，如果你的關門人有缺，明年季
後還有Joe Nathan和Francisco Rodriguez可以考慮。
Now it might seem a bit much already to begin questioning whether the Cubs
will rue the day they signed Zambrano, what with the deal not even being a
month old. Zambrano is only 26, which means his deal will end while he’s
presumably still in his prime. Plus, even at a record $18.3 million annual
salary, the consensus is that Zambrano gave the Cubs a hometown discount.
離小熊簽下冉伯牛都還不到一個月，現在就說他們會後悔好像有點太早，冉伯牛不過26歲
，所以在他的合約走完的時候他應該還正在壯年期，而且，即使是破紀錄的每年一千八百
百三十萬薪水，一般認為冉伯牛已經給了小熊個鄉親折扣價。
But questioning, in the form of boos at Wrigley Field at Zambrano‘s last
home start, Sept. 3, is already happening. When Zambrano began taking off his
jersey and gestured to his head as he left a start against the Los Angeles
Dodgers to a rain of boos after 4 1/3 innings, his record since the signing
was 0-3, his ERA 8.29. For good measure, Zambrano ran through a stop sign at
third base and got thrown out, and squatted in frustration rather than back
up the throw home on fellow pitcher Esteban Loaiza‘s two-run single.
不過在九月三日，小熊主場，當噓聲響起的時候，大家都開始懷疑。面對躲人，冉伯牛在
投完四又三分之一局下場，他脫下上衣，揮手向觀眾致意，噓聲如雨下。而且，他無視三
壘教練指示硬衝本壘出局，還在被對方投手Esteban Loaiza打出兩分打點安打的時候沒有
到本壘後方補位，只懊悔地蹲在地上。自從簽約日以來，他的成績是零勝三敗，自責分率
是8.29。
Zambrano did come back Saturday night to break a five-game losing streak by
giving up only two hits and one run over six-plus innings in a 5-1 win over
Pittsburgh.
冉伯牛在星期六（註：九月八日）倒是回復狀態，先發以五比一擊敗海賊隊，投了超過六
局，被打出僅兩支安打，丟一分，終止五連敗。
But even in victory, Zambrano gave up five walks. His tendency to be among
the league leaders in walks, as well as strikeouts, might be straining his
arm, making it a possibility the generally injury-free rightie might not stay
injury-free during his contract. Zambrano this season has had a tendency to
drop his right shoulder when he pitches, cutting down his velocity and
fueling speculation he is favoring the shoulder because it’s sore —
speculation that Zambrano and the Cubs have not indulged.
不過即使是贏球，冉伯牛還是送出五次保送，他送出三振和保送的次數有領先全聯盟的趨
勢，這讓這位不怎麼受傷的右投手在剩下的合約期間，有更高的受傷機會。今年他在投球
的時候傾向於放低他的右肩，使得他的球速減慢，這讓大家猜測是不是因為他的肩膀感覺
到酸痛所以他不敢太用力，不過小熊以及冉伯牛都否認。
Zambrano, however, is not the only recent starting pitcher signing that is
proving questionable. In fact, he’s not the only one in Chicago.
然而，冉伯牛，不是唯一一個最近簽大約而被懷疑的投手，事實上，芝加哥還有另一個。
Mitchel Lichtman, a former St. Louis Cardinals consultant and co-author of “
The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball,” notes on his blog that of
starting pitchers who throw at least 190 innings, one-third of them will be
out of baseball by 32, and the rest of them will average 140 innings, with
ERA that is a half-point higher. His analysis was inspired by the four-year,
$56 million “hometown discount” 28-year-old Mark Buehrle gave July 8 to the
Chicago White Sox.
前聖路易紅鳥顧問Mitchel Lichtman，The Book: Playing the Percentages in
Baseball這本書的作者之一，在他的部落格中寫到，在那些超過190局投球的先發投手中
，有三分之一的人在32歲的時候已經不能投球了，剩下的三分之二每年的平均局數只剩下
140局，自責分率則上升半成（註：3.00變成3.50這樣）。他的分析靈感來自於28歲的Mark
Buehrle給了芝加哥白襪一個四年五千六百萬的鄉親折扣價。
Like Zambrano, Buehrle’s deal seemed like it wasn’t going to happen, but
then came together, coincidentally or not, as fans put pressure on management
to sign him. Buehrle’s performance since his signing, a 3-5 record with a
4.17 ERA, hasn’t gotten him booed, but fans won’t target him as long as
that White Sox bullpen stays so awful. Still, Buehrle has held up Lichtman’s
argument that, sabermetrically speaking, he doesn’t give the White Sox many
more wins than they would have had from somebody else. Especially not with
the White Sox being a mediocre 39-46 when he signed, and an awful 22-36 since.
就像冉伯牛，Buehrle的合約一開始看起來好像不太可能，然後很巧合地，在球迷吵著要
Buehrle的時候，管理階層把他簽下來了。自從簽約以來他的成績是三勝五敗，自責分率
4.17，還好沒有被噓，不過只要白襪的牛棚繼續爛下去，球迷一時之間還不會注意到他
的。然而，從棒球統計學來說，Buehrle並沒有為白襪帶來比別人更多的勝場數，他簽約
的時候白襪是39勝46敗，他簽約後白襪是個慘兮兮的22勝36敗。
In fact, the White Sox of 2007 are a good argument for not blowing too much
on starting pitching. Chicago has four starters making more than $10 million
a year — Buehrle, Garland, Javier Vasquez and (gack — for two more years!)
Jose Contreras — and yet is only a short Tampa Bay winning streak away from
becoming the first team in major league history to go from World Series
champions to worst team in baseball while increasing payroll. (The
Philadelphia A’s similar decline from 1913 to 1915, and the Florida Marlins’
from 1997 to 1998 were the direct result of payroll purges.)
事實上，2007年的白襪是個不要花太多錢在先發投手上的好例子。他們有四個先發投手
每年領超過一千萬：Buehrle, Garland, Javier Vasquez和還有天殺的兩年合約的古巴佬
，然後他們只比坦帕灣小魚隊多一場勝場，不然他們就會變成史上第一支球隊，在薪水增
加的情況下，從世界冠軍變成落賽冠軍。（費城運動家1913到1915，佛州馬大魚1997到
1998從天堂到地獄的原因都是因為薪資縮減）
So does this mean when Santana, Peavy, et al, become free agents, teams
should stay away completely? Well, if you are a team with a limited payroll
(not Tampa Bay limited, but San Diego limited) or a long way away from
contention, you might think twice about the $20-$30 million a year these
pitchers are going to get. Can you swallow such a contract if it goes bad?
Can your big-money pitcher handle the abuse if things start to go sour?
所以啦，當山大王，皮維以及其他人變成自由球員的時候，大家應該不理他們嗎？這個
嘛，如果你的球隊很窮（不是坦帕灣小魚那種真的窮，是聖地牙哥那種有點窮又不太窮
的窮），或者離季後賽還好遠好遠，那對於這些可能每年要花兩三千萬的大投手，還是
就先看看好了。要考慮你的球隊能不能忍受每年花大錢丟到水裡面，或者是高薪大投手
面對挫折的處理能力。（註：我覺得這兩項對洋基或痛痛人來說都不構成任何問題）
If not, then maybe you’re better off taking that $20-$30 million per year
and plowing it into your minor-league system to develop your own arms, and
your scouting system to find them. Or take a little of that and sign Glavine
for a year if you think your team is a contender. Maybe you’ll miss out on a
big, hot name that your fans will love, but in the long run, you might spare
yourself, and your presumed ace, a lot of grief. Let the Zambrano experience
be your distant early warning system.
如果上述問題的答案為否，那你的球隊還是把那兩三千萬拿去灌溉農場的好，或者是加強
球探系統，看能不能長出些好的作物來，不然如果你的球隊想在季後賽一爭長短的話，也
可以拿出一點錢來，簽個葛叔叔一年之類的。也許損失了個球迷愛死了的大明星，不過長
期來說，你的球隊也省下了很多擔心害怕的機會，就讓冉伯牛的經驗做為我們的早期警示
系統吧。