538前幾天的這一篇:
Biden Has Made Some Modest Gains After The Debate
(懶得縮網址，自己找)
Remember, an 800-person poll nominally has a 3.5-point margin of error.
However, that margin pertains only to one candidate’s vote share; in a
two-candidate race, the margin of error on the difference between the
candidates will be roughly twice that then, or 7 points in this case.
樣本數800人的民調有3.5%的誤差值，並且雙方同時出現要乘以二，
換言之誤差值應該是百分之七。
That means, if Biden is truly ahead by 8 points, it should be fairly routine
to get everything from a 15-point Biden lead to a 1-point lead. And keep in
mind that with a confidence interval of 95 percent, the margin of error only
covers 95 percent of polls; 1 in 20 polls should fall outside that range.
如果拜登民調領先8%是真的，那也只代表他有95%信賴區間是領先1%~15%。
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欸不是，講難聽一點這樣民調意義在哪
538整天玩民調，判斷錯了就說其實還是在誤差範圍內
現在開始說打預防針說誤差有7%，是打算無論如何都能掰說自己沒有錯嗎
誤差1%說失誤我還能接受，7%根本是在搞笑了吧