※ 引述《a23006010103 (偉善者)》之銘言：
: 備註請放最後面 違者新聞文章刪除
: 風傳媒
: 鍾巧庭
: 《經濟學人》預測：川普勝選機率只剩4%！ 5張圖透視美國總統、參議院選情
好的，我們來看一下四年前，Economist怎麼預測美國選舉的：
一、Oct. 24th 2016：
Donald Trump's slimming chances of victory（川普勝選的機會越來越小）
來上圖：https://tinyurl.com/y4w9vgnl
最右邊："Polls become more accurate as the election approaches"
（隨著選舉越來越接近，民調會越來越準確）
二、Nov. 5th 2016 issue：（週刊，通常會提前一週發，所以它是Oct.30 2016發行的）
The presidential election
America's best hope
Why we would cast our hypothetical vote for Hillary Clinton
（為什麼我們會選擇投給希拉蕊）
＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝四年後分隔線 ＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
How The Economist presidential forecast works
（經濟學人的總統大選預測如何有效）
https://tinyurl.com/y4dzf2j9
Finally, we performed various minor tweaks to how we judge the correlations
between the states, how we update state-level trends with national data and
how we calculate the bias in pollsters that don’t weight their data to match
the partisan composition of the electorate. In sum, these changes caused Joe
Biden's chances of winning the popular vote and electoral college to each
decrease by roughly two percentage points.
結論：就是我們今年改了這些又改了那些，總而言之，今年我們預測，拜登會贏。