※ 引述《iPenis (庶民iPenis)》之銘言：
: It’s Time to Talk About Taiwan
: https://reurl.cc/nVWWzd
: DEFENSE ONE 美國 Michael Hunzeker MARK CHRISTOPHER 2020/02/25
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兩位作者都是學者，投書媒體
簡單摘要：
美國對台灣和中國的政策一直都是以模擬兩可的手法來牽制兩岸
讓兩岸揣測美國會不會出手干預而不敢輕舉妄動
但是近年來兩岸的主張已經越來越明顯強硬
台灣人的國家認同、選舉結果都是在向中國表態
而原本期待KMT幫忙統戰的中國
也在習近平上任後手段日益強硬
兩岸的情勢已經漸趨明朗，只有美國還在打迷糊仗
作者們認為，這種給自己預留後路的政策
只會讓美國更難達成保持兩岸現況不變的目的
無論是要表態協防台灣或是徹底放棄台灣
美國政府都應該仔細斟酌，擬定明確的立場
不能再擺盪不定、曖昧不明下去了。
**
作者並沒有說美國政府該怎麼選擇，只是說當前兩岸情勢明朗化
美國的政策也到了認真選邊站的時候，就這樣
學者寫的文章通常立論嚴謹，最好是仔細看過內文
不然就要仰賴譯者的公正誠信
要馬就寫明只是摘要，要馬就精確的逐字翻譯
最好別寫得像逐字稿實際卻是主觀摘要，降很危險
: Washington’s longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity is increasingly
: likely to inflame the kind of crisis it was meant to deter.
: In an interview with 60 Minutes on Sunday night, Democratic front-runner
: Bernie Sanders suggested that he might take military action to defend Taiwan
: if China attacks it. The implication is that a Sanders Administration would
: fundamentally transform America’s security policy toward Taiwan—a move that
: would surely cause hand-wringing in foreign policy circles from Washington to
: Beijing.
: 禮拜天對於民主黨總統候選人桑德斯的60分鐘訪談，桑德斯表示如果中國發動對台灣武力
: 進攻則美國應當協助保防。桑德斯意思將改變美國現有安全政策，並將引發北京的不滿。
: At least in this instance, Sanders is right to shake things up. Washington’s
: longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” is increasingly likely to
: inflame the very kind of crisis that it was intended to deter. It’s time for
: Washington to re-evaluate, redefine and clarify its commitment to Taiwan.
: 至少在現在這種情況，桑德斯是正確的，華盛頓長期的模糊政策，事實上只會激起原本要
: 阻止的危機。
: Since the 1979 passage of the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States has had
: a legal obligation to sell Taiwan the arms it needs for self-defense. Yet the
: United States remained deliberately vague as to whether it might come to
: Taiwan’s aid in a cross-Strait conflict. The logic behind this one-foot-in,
: one-foot-out policy is that as long as the United States kept both sides
: guessing about the conditions under which it might intervene, it could deter
: both Taiwan from declaring independence and China from invading.
: 從1979年通過台灣關係法以來，美國附有法律義務銷售台灣防衛性武器，但是對於是否
: 協助台灣於發生海峽戰爭的時候參與戰爭，仍保持著模糊的說詞
: 美國保持這種模糊觀點的優點是可以讓雙方臆測，使台灣猜測美國而不敢獨立，
: 中國猜測美國是否介入而不敢武力犯台。
: Strategic ambiguity gave the United States flexibility, which made sense
: while the trajectory of China-Taiwan relations remained deeply uncertain. For
: generations, Taiwan’s ruling party—the KMT—aspired to unify Taiwan with
: China (albeit under KMT rule). Even after Taiwan’s transition to democracy,
: the KMT continued to favor pro-unification policies. As a result China, which
: long lacked the military power to take Taiwan by force, had reason to remain
: patient.
: 運用上述的模糊戰略讓美國對於台海局勢保持靈活。
: 長期執政的國民黨對於中台關係傾向統一，在政權移轉後仍傾向統一。
: 而中國政府因長期軍事仍無法武力攻台，至今仍保持著高度耐心。
: Recently though, uncertainty has given way to clarity on both sides of the
: Taiwan Strait. In China, clarity comes in the form of Xi Jinping.
: 最近台海局勢隨著習近平提出主張而明確化。
: Annexing Taiwan has been among China’s top priorities since Mao. But Xi
: Jinping, China’s strongest leader in generations, has gone a step further by
: pinning his own legitimacy to the issue. Xi has also overseen a major
: modernization of China’s military, swinging the military balance on the
: Taiwan question clearly in China’s favor. Nor is he proving particularly
: patient, as he repeatedly warns audiences at home and abroad that the Taiwan
: problem “should not be passed down generation after generation.”
: 併吞台灣的問題是從毛澤東以來中國政府心裡的痛，最強領導人習近平上任後不斷的
: 對著台灣人警告台灣問題不應當世代相傳。
: In Taiwan, clarity comes from a growing sense of national identity. Public
: opinion polling suggests that more than half of the island’s population now
: identifies as exclusively Taiwanese. Identity tends to solidify with time,
: making it hard to believe that Taiwan will voluntarily submit to Chinese rule
: anytime soon.
: 但是台灣主流民意已經把自己當成"台灣人"，隨著時間身分認同更加固定。
: 讓中國統一台灣問題越來越困難，台灣人很難自願的認為自己是中國人。
: This trend helps explain why Taiwanese voters handed independence-leaning
: President Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a landslide
: victory last month. In doing so they sent China an unambiguous signal. Taiwan
: will no longer accept Beijing’s long preferred “one country, two systems”
: solution to the 71-year old standoff over the island’s status.
: 以上可以合理解釋為什麼傾向獨立的蔡英文及民進黨政府於上個月的選舉獲得壓倒性
: 勝利。
: 而後蔡英文政府明確向北京發出不接受一國兩制的訊號。
: It makes sense that Taiwanese voters don’t trust Chinese promises and
: assurances. They are all too aware that Xi has reinforced the Communist Party
: ’s role at the center of Chinese economic and political life, pulled back
: from market-based reforms, and ruthlessly crushed any perceived challenges to
: China’s territorial integrity. They have also watched the CCP round up
: millions of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and put them in reeducation camps, stonewall
: pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, and respond to the coronavirus outbreak
: with draconian quarantines and Orwellian propaganda. The recent election
: results, in which Tsai received more votes than any president in Taiwanese
: history, were a resounding rebuke of Beijing’s agenda.
: 台灣人民不信任中國政府是有道理可循，北京歷年來對於新疆維吾爾、香港反送中等議題
: 處理，並且採用歐威爾式自我宣傳。
: (指現代專制政權藉由嚴厲執行政治宣傳、監視、故意提供虛假資料、否認事實（雙重思想
: ）和操縱過去（包括製造「非人」，意指把一個人過去的存在從公共記錄和記憶中消除）
: 的政策以控制社會。) https://reurl.cc/VayyOR
: 都讓蔡政府創下選票歷史新高的原因。
引文太長以下恕刪