去紐時網站找了一篇文章，應該是這篇吧?
發文日期是12/26號(我猜是中時記者在台灣時間27日看到美國26日的新聞)
內容也提到民進黨推動公投也引述 1) 孔傑榮、2)吳釗燮、3)楊立憲 的話
所以應該就是這篇了!
原文頗長也很中立，請看完米國記者的完整報導。
原標題:
Loss by Taiwan's Governing Party Raises Fears That Ties With China Will Sour
中譯：台灣執政黨的挫敗喚醒了兩岸交流倒退的疑慮
TAIPEI, Taiwan — A recent defeat of Taiwan’s pro-China governing party in
local elections has raised expectations that the pro-independence opposition
could win the next national election, increasing concerns about a return to
the bitterness that previously defined the cross-strait relationship.
台北/台灣
日前台灣的親中執政黨(指中國國民黨)在地方選舉的挫敗使人預期2016年的總統/立委選
舉將由偏向台獨的團體獲勝，也挑起了有關兩岸是否重回過去那苦澀日子的議題。
When the opposition Democratic Progressive Party last held power, it presided
over a period of tensions with the mainland, angering Beijing by holding
referendums that touched on Taiwan’s relationship with China.
當反對黨民主進步黨最近一次執政的時候(應該是指2000-2008)，該黨因舉辦了關於兩岸
路線的公民投票而引起了兩岸的緊張，也因此激怒了北京當局。
Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, saw those votes as
possible preludes to a referendum on independence. China passed a law in 2005
approving the use of force if Taiwan formally declared independence, and
American officials worried publicly about the risk of being pulled into an
armed conflict with China over the island.
向來認為台灣是中國的一部份的北京當局視此次地方選舉可能將為台灣獨立公投揭開序幕
。中國在2005年通過一道法令使解放軍在台灣獨立之時可以合法地使用武力，而美國官方
也不掩飾地對兩岸可能陷入軍事衝突感到擔心。
Now, some observers fear that a loss by the governing Chinese Nationalist
Party, or Kuomintang, in national elections to be held in early 2016 could
herald a return to the troubles of that era.
現在，一些觀察家害怕中國國民黨在2016的全國性選舉(總統/立委選舉)的敗選將使
得兩岸回到過去充滿麻煩的時代。
“Looking ahead to next year’s campaign, the trend is really bad for the
Kuomintang, and if it’s bad for the Kuomintang, then it’s bad for the
development of cross-strait relations,” said Yang Lixian, a researcher with
the Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies.
北京的某單位的(Beijing-based National Society of Taiwan Studies)
某研究員楊立憲說未來一年的選舉活動，中國國民黨的前景堪憂，而若果真如此，這
對兩岸關係的發展亦不是件好事。
Relations with China have warmed under Taiwan’s current government. In the
past eight years, the two sides signed 21 agreements promoting greater
cross-strait trade and travel, and China seemed content to let its economic
embrace do what years of saber-rattling could not in bringing Taiwan closer
to its side.
當前政府使得兩岸關係暖了起來，在過去8年(有筆誤，個人認為應該是過去6年)，兩岸簽
署了21項協議，提升了兩岸的貿易及旅遊往來，而中國貌似也同意以經濟取代武力恫嚇，
以期將台灣慢慢地拉向中國。
But many Taiwanese have raised concerns that growing trade ties with China
undermine the island’s autonomy, and question their benefits.
但是大多數的台灣人民擔心日益頻繁的兩岸關係將破壞台灣的自主性，同時也質疑這些關
係所帶來的好處。
Last spring, students occupied Taiwan’s legislative building for more than
three weeks to protest efforts by the Kuomintang to push through a pact with
China on trade in services like advertising, finance and travel. That
occupation, known as the Sunflower Movement, was accompanied by large public
protests in the capital, Taipei.
今年春天，學生佔領了台灣立法院超過三週，該舉動為的是抗議中國國民黨與中國推動的
兩岸服貿(包advertising、finance及travel)條例。而該舉動(亦稱太陽花學運)同時也伴
隨著一些在首都台北發生的一些大型抗議活動。
Then last month, voters handed the Kuomintang a heavy defeat in elections for
more than 11,000 local positions, amid concerns about food safety, slow
economic growth, wage stagnation, housing prices and the growing gap between
rich and poor.
上個月，在食安、經濟成長緩慢、薪資停滯不前、房價以及貧富差距等氛圍中，台灣選民
雙手送給中國國民黨一次極大的選舉挫敗，該選舉的應選名額超過一萬一千名。
Those races focused on local issues, and none of the offices has a say over
cross-strait policy. But in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections,
the divide between those who favor independence and those who argue for a
future as part of China will play a more central role.
此次選舉主要是地方事務，選出的公職人員在兩岸政策上亦無任何的決定權。但是接下來
的2016總統及立委選舉，統獨雙方攻防將扮演重要的角色。
Some voters question economic cooperation because China has not renounced the
possible use of force against the island. Others believe that the increased
ties have not benefited most Taiwanese: While trade between the two sides has
soared under President Ma Ying-jeou, wages have remained stagnant.
一些選民質疑兩岸經濟上的合作，因為中國至今仍不輕言否認以武力攻台的可能性。而其
他人則認為兩岸合作的增加並不能為大部份的台灣人民帶來好處，意即：在馬英九的領導
下，兩岸貿易日益熱絡，但[台灣人民的]薪資仍停滯不前
The trade pact has stalled in the legislature. As part of the compromise that
brought an end to the Sunflower protests last spring, lawmakers are debating
new rules for monitoring agreements with China before taking any further
action on the deal.
兩案貿易協定卡在立法院。做為終止太陽花學運的妥協之一，立法委員在兩岸監督條例上
展開攻防，而在監督條例過關之前，任何兩岸之間的法案將擱置*。
*我想翻成擱置比較符合語意
Approval of the pact or any other deals with China seems unlikely for the
remainder of Mr. Ma’s term, observers say. He stepped down as head of his
party to accept blame for the Kuomintang’s electoral drubbing.
觀察家指出，在馬英九僅存的任期中，兩岸之間似乎不太可能再有任何協議。在選舉失利
後，馬英九接受指責並交出了中國國民黨的權力核心。
Beijing made little comment about the election outcome, but observers say
cross-strait relations may become more complicated.
北京對於此次選舉的結果幾無任何發言，但是觀察家說兩岸關係將變得更複雜。
“Taiwan is going to be increasingly in the public eye because of growing
tension with the mainland,” said Jerome A. Cohen, a New York University law
professor who focuses on the region. “It will have implications for
U.S.-mainland policy and for U.S.-Taiwan policy.”
紐約大學法學院教授Jerome A. Cohen指出，台灣將因兩岸接下來的緊張關係而受到矚目
，也將牽連美中政策與美台政策。
He said he foresaw a period of increased acrimony in the region as the
possibility for further cross-strait agreements diminished. But leaders of
the opposition say such fears are overblown and based largely on the record
of President Chen Shui-bian, the opposition leader who served from 2000 to
2008.
Jerome A. Cohen說他預見隨著未來兩岸協定的減少的可能性將使兩岸將有一段逐漸分歧
的時期。但是在野黨領導者指出，這些擔心被過度誇大了，而且該擔心的由來是基於
2000-2008之間執政的陳水扁的紀錄。
“Whoever has the chance to be entertained as a potential candidate for the
2016 presidential election, they’re different,” said Joseph Wu, the party’
s secretary general. “They’re not Chen Shui-bian.”
民進黨祕書長吳釗燮指出任何一位2016選舉的總統候選人都不能代表什麼，他們又不是陳
水扁。
Mr. Chen, Taiwan’s only non-Kuomintang president, was an advocate of
independence who often angered China and worried the United States. The party
’s new generation of politicians is more measured, Mr. Wu said.
吳釗燮也說，陳水扁(台灣目前唯一的非中國國民黨籍的總統)鼓吹台灣獨立而激起了中國
的敵意與美國的擔憂。但民進黨新世代是很慎重滴。
“They have different qualities and understand very well the dynamics of the
U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship,” he said. “They also have a very clear
understanding of values we should treasure in our relationship with the
United States, and they also understand the sensitivity of our China policy.”
吳釗燮指出，他們(指陳水扁與民進黨的新世代)擁有不同的特質，且非常了解美中台三方
的動態關係，新世代們很明白台灣與美國間的關係是值得珍惜的，也了解對中國政策的敏
感度。
Mr. Ma’s cross-strait policy helped him pull in voters in 2012, putting
pressure on the opposition to reconsider its China policy. In recent years,
it has worked to develop closer ties with Beijing despite their mutual
suspicions. Opposition politicians like former Premier Frank Hsieh and Mayor
Chen Chu of Kaohsiung, a southern port city, have visited China. And Mayor
Chen hosted Zhang Zhijun, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in June.
馬先生的兩岸政策令他在2012的選舉中勝出，使得在野黨須重新思考其對中政策。近年來
，馬先生的兩岸政策使得即使兩岸雙方對彼此仍有顧慮，兩岸關係還是越來越緊密。在野
黨的前閣揆謝長挺及高雄市市長陳菊都拜訪過中國，且陳菊還接待了在六月來訪的張志軍
。
The party has even debated a freeze to the call in its platform for Taiwanese
independence.
民進黨也對於台獨平台是否凍結的問題展開激辯。
Some opposition leaders fear that the United States will try to derail their
chances by speaking out in favor of the Kuomintang, in the belief that the
governing party is better at managing cross-strait ties. They are still
smarting from a comment by an American official in 2012 that they believe
damaged their prospects.
一些在野黨領導人害怕美國認為中國國民黨比較能處理兩岸關係進而支持該黨，這將影響
在野黨的機會。在野黨對美國官方在2012的評論感到頭痛。
Richard C. Bush III, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, the
de facto United States Embassy, said at a forum in September this year that
he expected the United States government “at some time and in some way will
express itself on the implications of the 2016 election for U.S. interests.”
前AIT主席卜睿哲(實際上也就是美國大使)，說在9月的一個論壇中便認為美國將在某個時
間點使用某種方式來表達2016選舉結果對美國造成的利弊。
But rather than fight an increasingly popular opposition, some analysts say,
the United States should adjust to the prospect of the opposition’s coming
to power.
分析家說，美國不應對漸取得民心的反對黨做出任何fight，而是應該思考未來反對黨取
得政權之後應當如何因應。
“I think Washington is going to have to come to terms with what it might
mean and prepare for that,” said William Stanton, director of the Center for
Asia Policy at National Tsing Hua University in Hsinchu, Taiwan, and a former
director of the American Institute in Taiwan.
擁有一堆頭銜讓我懶得翻譯的William Stanton說他認為美國會慢慢地知道該發展(指反對
黨取得政權)代表著什麼意思，並做出對應的措施。
What it might mean, especially with the election still more than a year away,
is subject to debate even within the opposition.
這發展，尤其是1年後的選舉，亦將引起反對黨之間的爭論。
“The ideological spectrum within the D.P.P. is so wide,” said Wu Chung-li,
a political scientist at Academia Sinica, a state-run research institution. “
Some factions are willing to have contact with mainland China. Other
factions, especially some radical ideologists, are not willing to have
contact with the mainland. Actually, it always is the big issue for the
party. No matter who will be the presidential candidate, he or she will have
to face the music to deal with the China factor.”
中研院政治學者吳重禮說民進黨的意識型態分布是很廣的，有些派系願意接觸中國，有些
派系(尤其是基本教義支持者)則不願意。事實上，這本來就是民進黨內部一個重大的議題
。不管誰當總統候選人，他或她都將面臨處理中國關係所帶來的挑戰。
※ 引述《sigmaaldrich (專賣化學藥品)》之銘言：
: 紐時：2016若綠執政 不利兩岸
: 中時
: http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20141228000891-260302
: 《紐約時報》27日報導，國民黨在「九合一」大選挫敗，引發各方預期民進黨在2016年總
: 統大選勝算較大，令人擔憂台灣是否會回到之前苦澀的兩岸關係中，因為民進黨之前執政
: 時因推動公投激怒北京，導致兩岸關係有一段時間處於緊張、苦澀。
: 報導引述紐約大學法學院教授孔傑榮分析，「未來兩岸緊張關係將持續上升，會讓台灣愈
: 來愈受到外界關注，也會影響美國的中國政策及對台政策。」
: 面對外界擔憂，民進黨祕書長吳釗燮回應說：「不管誰代表民進黨參選，情況都不一樣，
: 因為他們不是陳水扁。」民進黨內新一代領導人都比較慎重，比較瞭解美中台三角關係，
: 珍惜美台關係，知道中國政策的敏感性。
: 《紐時》還引述北京全國台灣研究會研究員楊立憲的意見認為，「目前看來，2016選情對
: 國民黨相當不利，果真如此，將不利兩岸關係發展。」
: 報導說，相較之前的武力恫嚇，北京樂見兩岸經貿交往，讓台灣接近大陸，而11月台灣的
: 地方選舉很少觸及兩岸關係議題，但後年的總統及立委選舉，統獨議題勢必成為焦點。
: 報導也引述中研院政研所研究員吳重禮分析，民進黨意識形態的光譜很寬廣，有人支持與
: 大陸交往，但有人堅持基本教義，不管最後誰代表民進黨參選，都必須面對及處理中國因
: 素。