新聞來源連結：
https://goo.gl/18FRVI
新聞本文：
Bitcoin Price Surges as Chinese Miner Conference Concludes
The price of bitcoin jumped sharply on October 22 in response to the
conclusion of the biggest ever conference of miners in China, where the
participants discussed scaling issues. In the first ever event that included
all of the major miners in China, Huang Shiliang, a famous Bitcoin advocate,
delivered an important talk which could be a pivotal moment for the future
development of Bitcoin. While BTC-USD surged to a fresh high of $650 on
American and European exchanges, there were notably higher volumes driving
BTC-USD as high as $670 on Chinese exchanges.
A translated transcript appeared online, detailing what was said, in what
could be an important sign for the future of Bitcoin. It seems that Bitcoin
Unlimited supporters are reading a long-term plan to override the Bitcoin
Core developers. With the miners organizing and standing together to make the
case for scaling Bitcoin as to outgrow the 1MB block size, the market may be
pricing in an eventual solution to the block size debate.
Outlook is Rosy for Bitcoin
The chart below shows the bullish breakout for BTC-CNY on the OKCoin
exchange, which smashed through the ￥4,500 handle and posted the largest
daily gain since June 2016. Next fractal resistance lies at ￥4,600 and a
break of this level will see the market test the 2016 high at ￥5,185.77.
Also notice that yesterday’s bullish surge was supported by higher volume,
indicating interest in bitcoin will increase over the coming weeks. October
22 saw the largest net daily bullish volume since August 3, when BTC-CNY
began to recover from the Bitfinex hack and started its march back toward
equilibrium, ￥4,000 as signalled by the Ichimoku cloud.
Currently, the price action is above the green Ichimoku cloud and the large
rise in volume suggests that the upward trend since the Bitfinex hack is
solidifying and getting ready to establish fresh yearly highs. Upward
momentum will dominate in the week ahead as the Awesome Oscillator provides a
bullish signal, known as the ‘Saucer’. Notice the curvature formed over the
past three days, whereby the red bar was followed by progressively higher
green bars, pointing to further gains for bitcoin.
Outgrowing the 1MB Block Size Limit
Shiliang outlined the problems the Bitcoin ecosystem faces with the limited
1MB block size. However, the Core developers favour a more conservative
approach, made clear in the speech:
“In late August, representatives of the Chinese [Bitcoin] miners went to the
United States with the [Bitcoin] Core developers to discuss the expansion of
the block size. The results were terrible, whereby the developers refused to
expand capacity…”
By overcoming the 1MB limit, Shiliang believes this will result in a more
favorable environment for fee incomes and Bitcoin price, noting that since
one block presently hold 3,500 transactions at most this is anchoring the
demand and use of bitcoin. He notes that the number of transactions a block
contains grew steadily since Bitcoin’s inception but over the past six
months, this has stagnated. Since blocks are full, the network can no longer
grow.
Lifting the Block Size is the Only Option
Miners are facing a three-pronged attack whereby the life cycle of mining is
very short, whereby capital depreciates relatively quickly, higher operating
costs, and stagnating block fees. Fees accounted for the proportion of miners
income is still very small, an average of only 3 percent. The current
situation is because the block is limited to 1MB. And since the number of
transaction is limited, the total fee is unlikely to rise.
Increasing the transaction fees would hurt the growth and demand for bitcoin,
leaving the bitcoin price as the factor miners need to engage. However, the
price is determined by demand and supply. While the supply is fixed, demand
is more of a significant factor in the price of bitcoin over the medium term.
But since the block size is limited to 1MB this is limiting the use of
Bitcoin, anchoring demand for the cryptocurrency to a low level.
Scaling bitcoin however would increase demand and hence the price, leading to
better profitability for miners. Shiliang provides anecdotal evidence for the
statement pointing to the fact that the price of bitcoin fell on the
disappointing talks in late August but a price rise on the back of the
announcement that ViaBTC supported Bitcoin Unlimited, as well as after a
meeting between Chinese miners and Core developers in early 2016 that was
perceived positively for the growth of the network.
Shiliang wrapped up the speech by urging miners to support the Bitcoin
Unlimited protocol by mining with the ViaBTC pool, stating they only need to
achieve 16 percent of the network's computing power and that should be enough
to tip the rest of the ecosystem in their favor and swiftly reach the 80
percent figure to strengthen the “fragile” Bitcoin network. Toward the end
of the Shiliang’s speech one comment stood out, displaying confidence that
the scaling issue Bitcoin will soon be settled once and for all:
“So what we now have to do is to find 6 percent [to make up 16 percent]. The
overall situation will soon be settled…”
評論：
比特幣有個傳統就是逢開會幣跌，這次難得打破傳統，比特幣上漲打破趨勢線。
因為這次開會礦工難得要反抗bitcoin-core的不擴容路線，因為顯然bitcoin-core
唬爛出來的手續費會暴漲不存在，所以礦工若要繼續生存，最好的方法應該是擴容，
這才是真正增加手續費擴大利基的方法。
礦工的報告投影片可參見這篇
http://www.8btc.com/tan90d102